Gator Country

xenythx · 02-24-2013, 06:11 PM

#4 Michigan State about to lose on the road to #19 Ohio State. Should help us a bit.

GatorSean · 02-24-2013, 06:15 PM

Hate to see osu win at anything, but I guess this is acceptable.

Jaggator · 02-24-2013, 06:34 PM

As good as Michigan State is, they dropped 2 games in a row this week. The lost to both Indiana and Ohio State. Goes to show you how strong the Big 10 is.

iam4uf · 02-24-2013, 08:59 PM

Narrowed the gap between among the top three & actually hurt our RPI relative to theirs. Both UF & Miami need to win out to get a #1 seed.

1 Duke - 0.6894
2 Miami FL - 0.6734
3 New Mexico - 0.6725
4 Florida - 0.6560

swampgas44 · 02-24-2013, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by iam4uf

Narrowed the gap between among the top three & actually hurt our RPI relative to theirs. Both UF & Miami need to win out to get a #1 seed.

1 Duke - 0.6894
2 Miami FL - 0.6734
3 New Mexico - 0.6725
4 Florida - 0.6560

New Mexico is not going to be a #1 seed. A high 3 or a low 2 most likely.

UFSECKINGS · 02-24-2013, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaggator

As good as Michigan State is, they dropped 2 games in a row this week. The lost to both Indiana and Ohio State. Goes to show you how strong the Big 10 is.

Seth Davis has them at #3 on his ballot this week... even after two losses. I kid you not.

swampgas44 · 02-24-2013, 09:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by UFSECKINGS

Seth Davis has them at #3 on his ballot this week... even after two losses. I kid you not.

That CBS bunch always has Florida slightly lower rated than most.

gatordavisl · 02-24-2013, 09:38 PM

I don't want to see Izzo's bunch in the the tourney, regardless of seed. If we were able to defeat them, it would exercise a tourney demon of sorts, but it would be tough for us (as fans) to go into that game with confidence.

rserina · 02-24-2013, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swampgas44

New Mexico is not going to be a #1 seed. A high 3 or a low 2 most likely.

Agreed. I think the influence of the RPI is often overstated. Pretty interesting interview with the committee chair this year from the WSJ, including:

Quote:

Most of the smartest analysts of college basketball prefer metrics other than the RPI. If the committee considers the RPI one of the most reliable systems, why do so few others use it?

I think part of that is certain folks gravitate toward other ranking systems because of particular features they may prefer that may not be present in the RPI. Some people like margin of victory or different weighting on style of play.

I use a combination of different systems when I look at teams and also weigh that with my own observations. I want to see a team play and get a sense of who they are and how they look.

http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2013/0...t-and-the-rpi/

rserina · 02-24-2013, 09:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gatordavisl

I don't want to see Izzo's bunch in the the tourney, regardless of seed. If we were able to defeat them, it would exercise a tourney demon of sorts, but it would be tough for us (as fans) to go into that game with confidence.

Well, we beat them the last time we faced them on a neutral court, and that was with a 10-seed coming off a NIT berth going against a second ranked team that ended up in then Final Four. Not sure I am that worried about them. Great coach, solid program, very competitive team, but in no way better than us. Would be a great game, actually, especially with Wilbekin on Appling.

GatorHoya · 02-25-2013, 12:34 PM

Getting a #1 seed is going to be an uphill battle at this point.

Indiana has a #1 seed locked in, and I think it is more likely than not that the Big10 will get a second #1 seed in whichever team wins the Michigan-Mich State matchup on March 3. The winner of that game would have to be upset at least once in the regular season, or have an early conference tournament exit in order to not get a #1 IMO.

As much as I hate Duke, I think they will beat Miami easily March 2nd. Even if they lose on the road to a desperate UNC team on March 9, they will probably have the resume for a #1. Ryan Kelly is coming back and the committee loves to evaluate teams based on their roster going into the tournament, which should give them a boost.

Gonzaga's bid for a #1 will generate a lot of controversy among the talking heads in the coming weeks. I don't expect BYU to upset them, and they should coast to a 30+ win season. It will be interesting whether enough committee members are philosophically opposed to giving them a #1 given their weak conference opposition. They did have some nice wins against the Big12 back in December, which in IMO will be just enough to get them the #1 as long as they don't lay an egg in the next 2 weeks.

Those would be the 1s right now. Kansas, Florida, and Georgetown are the main contenders to sneak in. (I think Miami will lose at least twice more this season).

Unfortunately, even if one of the #1 seeds falters, I just don't know if we enough opportunities for quality wins. Just have to take care of whats left on our schedule, but the Mizz loss was a big missed opportunity.

All of that said, I think a #1 and a #2 are essentially the same thing, and I would rather be a 2 in DC or Dallas against Michigan or Duke than be a #1 routed through California. Just pray to god we are high enough on the S-curve to avoid be the #2 seed sent to Indianapolis against the Hoosiers. I want no part of them until its absolutely necessary, especially in their backyard.

My 2cents.

InstiGATOR1 · 02-25-2013, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaggator

As good as Michigan State is, they dropped 2 games in a row this week. The lost to both Indiana and Ohio State. Goes to show you how strong the Big 10 is.

Does it? UF blew out a 4 loss Wisconson at home. IU lost to a 4 loss Wisconsin at home. Wisconsin also beat Michigan. So I am not sure, despite the boomlet of Michigan State is coming talk last week, that Michigan State is that good.

InstiGATOR1 · 02-25-2013, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rserina

Agreed. I think the influence of the RPI is often overstated.

The influence of RPI is understated in my view. All the records against the top 100 or top 50 ect data given to the committee is based on record against the RPI top 100 or RPI top 50. So RPI is all over the information given to the committee.

**mjbuf05** · 02-25-2013, 01:23 PM

I agree, we have to win out to be a #1 seed. The SEC is doing us zero favors this year.

gogators73 · 02-25-2013, 01:35 PM

I don't understand why CBS seems to dislike us? We are consistently on the low end of every kind of ranking compared to the average place people have us.

phideltdj · 02-25-2013, 01:39 PM

I think that when comparing teams for seeds such as this that home losses should weigh heavily as a determining factor.

**ThePlayer** · 02-25-2013, 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gogators73

I don't understand why CBS seems to dislike us? We are consistently on the low end of every kind of ranking compared to the average place people have us.

It's a north-eastern love affair to be sure.
Only Duke, North Carolina and the sweater-wearing community need apply.

gulfgator · 02-25-2013, 02:07 PM

There are no demons for this team and Michigan St, the Seniors are 1-0 against them.

**sec1** · 02-25-2013, 02:10 PM

we are not a number 1 seed ....

missourigator · 02-25-2013, 02:15 PM

I predict we lose to Tenn and Ky. We will be a 3 or 4. You have to beat everybody eventually anyway.