Gator Country

**PinellasSwampDaddy** · 02-23-2013, 12:43 PM

The academic wasteland in Tallahassee trying to present itself as a school to join the Big 10 is quite humorous.

I am 5' 10' and have as good as chance of convincing a NBA team that I should play center !!

Plus anybody that feels FSU should be invited to SEC needs a serious visit to the state mental hospital . They are cash poor and joining the SEC would be a lifeline that no true Gator should even think about.

Pinellas Swamp Daddy

tilly · 02-23-2013, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

I like that self-serving strategy!

Who can blame me? Witnessing The Gators quieting the Cameron Crazies and the whine and cheese crowd at the Dean Dome would be great events indeed!

...And we would fill half of their football stadiums with O and B at both places. There is a huge representation of The Gator Nation in these parts.

tedunderhillstab · 02-23-2013, 02:06 PM

less than 1% chance Duke or UNC ever leaves the ACC. It is their conference, they have the title paperwork and keys to that conference.

**oragator1** · 02-23-2013, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tedunderhillstab

less than 1% chance Duke or UNC ever leaves the ACC. It is their conference, they have the title paperwork and keys to that conference.

Not by choice, but if it imploded around them they will need a seat for when the music stops.

tilly · 02-23-2013, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tedunderhillstab

less than 1% chance Duke or UNC ever leaves the ACC. It is their conference, they have the title paperwork and keys to that conference.

The problem is the ACC may leave them. By that I mean the ACC may lose viability and force them to move.

KronoGator · 02-23-2013, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

I think the 14 team issue could easily be corrected in football by the NCAA simply adding a 13th regular season game and the conferences moving to a 9-game conference schedule. That would allow 6 in-division games and 3 cross-division games.

I think it's more likely that the playoffs, if successful, will expand putting an end to not only an expanded regular season but also to conference title games.

Look at the FCS, they are still on 11 game seasons.

1984Gator · 02-25-2013, 01:35 AM

This is pretty unlikely. If GT and Virginia bolt for the B1G, it's a sure thing that Va tech will join the SEC. That leaves the ACC on extremely wobbly wheels. Both the B1G and SEC want UNC and its true that UNC calls its own shots but the viability of the ACC at that point wouldn't be healthy at all. UNC probably gets forced to jump and the SEC would make its fans happier, expecially if the SEC brings Duke along. That leaves FSU, Clemson, Miami, NC State, Wake, BC, Pitt and Syracuse.

The B1G might well decide to grab Pitt and BC to go along with UVA, GT bringing them to 18 teams.

The SEC takes Va Tech and UNC to get to 16 teams

Roadkill are Wake, Syracuse and Miami.

If a a 20 team conference of 4 pods is the the ultimate goal of the B1G, they might consider adding Miami and most likely UConn or Kansas. Miami and UConn represent big TV markets.

This leaves the SEC to consider standing pat or duplicating footprint and adding FSU, and Clemson. I've always thought this to be unlikely but i've done some research adn the SEC gets more than 40% of all 5 star and 4 star recruits every year. This has been true for the last 12 years. No other conference average even 20% of the best recruits. If the SEC were to duplicate footprint by taking FSU and Clemson and then offering Texas and OU or NC State, the SEC would control nearly 70% of the best recruits every year and it would be game over. The remnants of the b12 and ACC would be SOL...

When it come to college football viewership. Football fans would still watch their favorites around the country but after that, I suspect the SEC could attract national viewers with a clearly superior product. In fact that is already happening!

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

HungaryGator:

The only issue with what you say is that to a large extent, I think the growth of the Big-10, SEC and Pac-12 is somewhat connected. I don't believe the Big-10 is going to go beyond 16 until/unless the Pac-12 and SEC both go to 16.

I think we're both on the same page that the Pac-12 really only has one option and that's to raid the Big-12. They may not get all 4 of those teams, but they've really got to get AT LEAST UTX or OU in the deal and one more decent school. They could probably fill one spot with a UNLV or Boise State. They just can't take 4 smaller programs. The Pac-12 is going to need at least 2 home runs.

The point being that I think the only way the ACC gets "torn to pieces" is if the Big-12 gets raided as well. If the Pac-12 can't expand because it can't pull anybody from the Big-12, they probably just won't expand until they can.

And if the Pac-12 doesn't expand, the SEC probably won't expand either, in which case, the Big-10 probably doesn't expand past the 16.

So it could end up being just 2 out of UVA and GT go to the Big-10 to get them to 16, The SEC stays at 14, Pac-12 stays at 12. And then possibly FSU and Clemson to the Big-12 to get them to 12, and the ACC adds UL to replace UMD (already done) and then UConn and Cincy to get themselves back to 12, with Syracuse and Pitt, and then things die down again for a little while.

In my overall opinion, the only way UNC leaves is if they don't think there's any hope ACC can be saved as a major conference - basically conference expansion armageddon.

And I think the only way FSU leaves the ACC - barring an unlikely Big-10 or SEC invite (conference expansion armageddon) or they truly believe the Pac-12 won't be able to raid the Big-12. Personally, I don't think they believe that because they seem to have very cold feet about making that move.

It might take a few years, but I still believe the Pac-12 ultimately takes 4 of those Big-12 school, the Big-10 and SEC take several from the ACC, and the remains of the Big-12 and ACC merge to try to survive.

1984Gator · 02-25-2013, 01:38 AM

I'll tell you why the PAC won't do this. AZ State, Colorado, AZ, Utah etc don't want to go back to playing teams from that region. They want to play on the west coast. For this reason, they will vote down expansion. If Texas had jumped 2 years ago, it might have been possible but that ship has sailed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

HungaryGator:

The only issue with what you say is that to a large extent, I think the growth of the Big-10, SEC and Pac-12 is somewhat connected. I don't believe the Big-10 is going to go beyond 16 until/unless the Pac-12 and SEC both go to 16.

I think we're both on the same page that the Pac-12 really only has one option and that's to raid the Big-12. They may not get all 4 of those teams, but they've really got to get AT LEAST UTX or OU in the deal and one more decent school. They could probably fill one spot with a UNLV or Boise State. They just can't take 4 smaller programs. The Pac-12 is going to need at least 2 home runs.

The point being that I think the only way the ACC gets "torn to pieces" is if the Big-12 gets raided as well. If the Pac-12 can't expand because it can't pull anybody from the Big-12, they probably just won't expand until they can.

And if the Pac-12 doesn't expand, the SEC probably won't expand either, in which case, the Big-10 probably doesn't expand past the 16.

So it could end up being just 2 out of UVA and GT go to the Big-10 to get them to 16, The SEC stays at 14, Pac-12 stays at 12. And then possibly FSU and Clemson to the Big-12 to get them to 12, and the ACC adds UL to replace UMD (already done) and then UConn and Cincy to get themselves back to 12, with Syracuse and Pitt, and then things die down again for a little while.

In my overall opinion, the only way UNC leaves is if they don't think there's any hope ACC can be saved as a major conference - basically conference expansion armageddon.

And I think the only way FSU leaves the ACC - barring an unlikely Big-10 or SEC invite (conference expansion armageddon) or they truly believe the Pac-12 won't be able to raid the Big-12. Personally, I don't think they believe that because they seem to have very cold feet about making that move.

It might take a few years, but I still believe the Pac-12 ultimately takes 4 of those Big-12 school, the Big-10 and SEC take several from the ACC, and the remains of the Big-12 and ACC merge to try to survive.

1984Gator · 02-25-2013, 01:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

I think the 14 team issue could easily be corrected in football by the NCAA simply adding a 13th regular season game and the conferences moving to a 9-game conference schedule. That would allow 6 in-division games and 3 cross-division games.

A 9 game schedule is bad fr the bottom half teams in the SEC and is therefor bad for parity. The SEC would rather play 8 conference games and send 12 teams to bowls. If I was a fan from Vandy or Kentucky, I'd rather stick with 8...

1984Gator · 02-25-2013, 01:46 AM

Maryland would have been a nice addition to the SEC. perhaps we should still try to take them from the B1G....

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

It's okay if we disagree. I think VT and NCSU would jump at an offer right now.

I think 99% of the people in the country would say the Big-12 would be a no brainer move for FSU. And so long as Texas and OU are in the Big-12, it is definitely a much better option.

I agree that FSU fans, even those who have supported the ACC to the end will freely admit FSU screwed themselves by not jumping to the SEC when they had the chance.

If they did all that than maybe, but they won't. FSU and Clemson are probably the only 2 ACC programs that would help them and Texas might agree too, but remember that Texas vetoed FSU and Clemson alone already. Texas doesn't want Clemson. UL is a possible option as well and was close to getting into the Big-12 over WVU. GT would help but I think they'll be in the Big-10. Nobody wants Miami. Miami hold no value, especially if the Big-12 gets FSU. Nobody wants Duke unless they get UNC either. FSU, Clemson and UL aren't going to keep Texas there if the Pac-12 comes calling. But I think Clemson and FSU could keep the Big-12 going for a while, even without Texas and OU.

We can disagree here too. VT isn't going anywhere and will be available if/when the SEC wants them. Big-10 doesn't want them. There's no reason for the SEC to act until they are ready or need to make a move. The might do it, but they don't have to. VT will be there when the SEC calls. So will NCSU.

Has little to do with market size. Well actually it does for the basic cable carriage fees. But my comments are based more on the resources a school has.

You underestimate Maryland. It's a BIG school. 38,000 students and a large alumni base. Plus the Under Armor money.

UVA only has about 21,000 students, though it's a wealthier school. GT also has about 21,000 students.

None of the schools is heavy on athletics or rabid fans but Maryland has about double the base of students/alumni of either UVA or GT. They can grow their fan support much more easily than UVA or GT.

Rutgers is even bigger at about 57,000 students (Bigger than UF), though there are 4 campuses.

In addition to just the NYC and DC TV markets the Big-10 wanted, they picked 2 universities in UMD and Rutgers with large student and alumni bases and large resources!

Don't sell UMD short. In my opinion, they're much more valuable than UVA and the Atlanta TV market makes GT much more valuable to the Big-10 than UVA right now. The SEC would have at least looked at UMD as a candidate.

atlantagator86 · 02-25-2013, 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KronoGator

I think it's more likely that the playoffs, if successful, will expand putting an end to not only an expanded regular season but also to conference title games.

Look at the FCS, they are still on 11 game seasons.

Keep in minds that the Big-12 is already playing a 9 game conference schedule and the Big-10 has already planned to add a 9th game conference game in I believe 2017.

atlantagator86 · 02-25-2013, 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1984Gator

I'll tell you why the PAC won't do this. AZ State, Colorado, AZ, Utah etc don't want to go back to playing teams from that region. They want to play on the west coast. For this reason, they will vote down expansion. If Texas had jumped 2 years ago, it might have been possible but that ship has sailed.

In time, if they don't expand and get into the Texas market, they will likely fall WAY behind the SEC and Big-10. Raiding the Big-12 is the Pac-12's only real viable option for expansion. There's really no alternative.

orangeblueorangeblue · 02-25-2013, 07:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

Keep in minds that the Big-12 is already playing a 9 game conference schedule and the Big-10 has already planned to add a 9th game conference game in I believe 2017.

But then there's almost no room for OOC at all. I believe that was his point.

orangeblueorangeblue · 02-25-2013, 07:23 AM

The reality is D1A/FBS will have to undergo a massive change in the next few years, and I expect the end result will be a bunch of lower-rung teams getting shifted into some lower-rung division.

**luciaboy** · 02-25-2013, 07:37 AM

not going to happen

atlantagator86 · 02-25-2013, 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orangeblueorangeblue

But then there's almost no room for OOC at all. I believe that was his point.

The other part of this that I mentioned earlier is that I think the NCAA will probably add a 13th regular season game at some point.

orangeblueorangeblue · 02-25-2013, 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

The other part of this that I mentioned earlier is that I think the NCAA will probably add a 13th regular season game at some point.

Right; his point (which I agree with) is that they'd probably prefer to extend the playoffs before extending the regular season at this juncture.

KronoGator · 02-25-2013, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orangeblueorangeblue

Right; his point (which I agree with) is that they'd probably prefer to extend the playoffs before extending the regular season at this juncture.

Exactly, nobody is going to want a 13th game when the playoffs start to expand.

atlantagator86 · 02-25-2013, 10:34 AM

orangeblueorangeblue:

Anything's possible. Nobody knows for sure what will happen. But here's why I believe a 13-game regular season happens.

First and foremost is money. Adding approximately 60 games would create a lot of revenue for ALL schools, not just those in a playoff.

Second, I think extending playoffs will create more of a gap between the bigger and smaller programs. Imagine lets say Kentucky playing a 12-game season and maybe UF, with a CG and 4 playoff games (16-team playoff) playing a 17-game season. That's a 42% increase in the number of games and is going to give the big schools an even bigger advantage in revenue and recruiting. I don't think the smaller schools are going to go for that. They're probably going to prefer a 13th game over an expanded playoff.

They've had enough difficulty just getting to a 4-team playoff. There are a lot of problems with logistics in expanding the playoffs. There are a lot of differences between the college football playoff and college basketball tournament that will make expanding it more difficult. First is the extension of the season. The maximum number of games played in the NCAA Tourney (at least for the major conferences is 6. Comparing that to the 30 game regular season, that's only about 17% more games. If they ever did a 16-team football playoff, that would be 4 games, compared with a 12 game season is about 25% more games (plus an additional conference CG).

Second, the NCAA Tourney is 2 games a week and 3 sites. Travel costs are much lower for both teams and equipment. You couldn't do that with football.

I think you're much more likely to see agreement and support for the major conferences adding a 9th conference game and the NCAA adding a 13th regular season game in the next few years than expanding the playoffs beyond 4 teams. And I could even see them eliminating the CGs at if they expand the playoffs to 8 teams at some point. Is there really a point to a CG game (other than money) and having Bama and UGA play if both teams will be in an 8 or 16 team playoff?

tilly · 02-25-2013, 01:05 PM

I assume playoff revenues will be like bcs revenue...split among all conference members... thus reducing the financial advantage of a deep playoff run.

Am I wrong in that assumption?

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