North Carolina has officially been offered to join the Big Ten

[atlantagator86]

HungaryGator:

The only issue with what you say is that to a large extent, I think the growth of the Big-10, SEC and Pac-12 is somewhat connected. I don't believe the Big-10 is going to go beyond 16 until/unless the Pac-12 and SEC both go to 16.

I think we're both on the same page that the Pac-12 really only has one option and that's to raid the Big-12. They may not get all 4 of those teams, but they've really got to get AT LEAST UTX or OU in the deal and one more decent school. They could probably fill one spot with a UNLV or Boise State. They just can't take 4 smaller programs. The Pac-12 is going to need at least 2 home runs.

The point being that I think the only way the ACC gets "torn to pieces" is if the Big-12 gets raided as well. If the Pac-12 can't expand because it can't pull anybody from the Big-12, they probably just won't expand until they can.

And if the Pac-12 doesn't expand, the SEC probably won't expand either, in which case, the Big-10 probably doesn't expand past the 16.

So it could end up being just 2 out of UVA and GT go to the Big-10 to get them to 16, The SEC stays at 14, Pac-12 stays at 12. And then possibly FSU and Clemson to the Big-12 to get them to 12, and the ACC adds UL to replace UMD (already done) and then UConn and Cincy to get themselves back to 12, with Syracuse and Pitt, and then things die down again for a little while.

In my overall opinion, the only way UNC leaves is if they don't think there's any hope ACC can be saved as a major conference - basically conference expansion armageddon.

And I think the only way FSU leaves the ACC - barring an unlikely Big-10 or SEC invite (conference expansion armageddon) or they truly believe the Pac-12 won't be able to raid the Big-12. Personally, I don't think they believe that because they seem to have very cold feet about making that move.

It might take a few years, but I still believe the Pac-12 ultimately takes 4 of those Big-12 school, the Big-10 and SEC take several from the ACC, and the remains of the Big-12 and ACC merge to try to survive.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by leogator

If USCE and Clemson are in the same timeslots (i.e., 1-4PM), then you have a point, if one is from 1-4 and the other from 4-7, then you can have both. Even if you have both in the same timeslot, it's not like there's a lot of USCE fans that want to watch Clemson and vice versa. The only problem would be in a split household with just one TV.

Nope. It's largely about expanding the footprint for the upcoming SEC Network, which will likely only have a few lower end SEC football games. The big football games will remain mostly on ESPN and CBS.

The footprint expansion is about getting the SEC Network as a basic cable network in as many homes as possible and collecting carriage fees. Whether people are actually watching isn't as important.

[KronoGator]

Originally Posted by demosthenes

Not seeing 20. Just too large and likely to end up in dissolution of a conference that large.

The same thing could happen at 16, there are already serious schedule issues at 14.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by KronoGator

The same thing could happen at 16, there are already serious schedule issues at 14.

I think the 14 team issue could easily be corrected in football by the NCAA simply adding a 13th regular season game and the conferences moving to a 9-game conference schedule. That would allow 6 in-division games and 3 cross-division games.

[HungaryGator]

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

HungaryGator:

The only issue with what you say is that to a large extent, I think the growth of the Big-10, SEC and Pac-12 is somewhat connected. I don't believe the Big-10 is going to go beyond 16 until/unless the Pac-12 and SEC both go to 16.

I think we're both on the same page that the Pac-12 really only has one option and that's to raid the Big-12. They may not get all 4 of those teams, but they've really got to get AT LEAST UTX or OU in the deal and one more decent school. They could probably fill one spot with a UNLV or Boise State. They just can't take 4 smaller programs. The Pac-12 is going to need at least 2 home runs.

The point being that I think the only way the ACC gets "torn to pieces" is if the Big-12 gets raided as well. If the Pac-12 can't expand because it can't pull anybody from the Big-12, they probably just won't expand until they can.

And if the Pac-12 doesn't expand, the SEC probably won't expand either, in which case, the Big-10 probably doesn't expand past the 16.

So it could end up being just 2 out of UVA and GT go to the Big-10 to get them to 16, The SEC stays at 14, Pac-12 stays at 12. And then possibly FSU and Clemson to the Big-12 to get them to 12, and the ACC adds UL to replace UMD (already done) and then UConn and Cincy to get themselves back to 12, with Syracuse and Pitt, and then things die down again for a little while.

In my overall opinion, the only way UNC leaves is if they don't think there's any hope ACC can be saved as a major conference - basically conference expansion armageddon.

And I think the only way FSU leaves the ACC - barring an unlikely Big-10 or SEC invite (conference expansion armageddon) or they truly believe the Pac-12 won't be able to raid the Big-12. Personally, I don't think they believe that because they seem to have very cold feet about making that move.

It might take a few years, but I still believe the Pac-12 ultimately takes 4 of those Big-12 school, the Big-10 and SEC take several from the ACC, and the remains of the Big-12 and ACC merge to try to survive.

Where I disagree with you is, I think if the Big 10 grabs a couple from the ACC in another raid, then the SEC will respond by also launching a raid of its own on the ACC to secure a footprint in North Carolina and Virginia. An ACC that has just lost 4 more including presumably its heartland of North Carolina and Virginia with all 4 of the big state schools in those two states now gone...the ACC is doomed. Its just no longer viable at that point. Then you see an fsu/Clemson/Ga Tech/scUM + 2 more try to get into the Big 12.....and the Big 12 ensures itself of being one of the final 4 and ensures it won't be torn to pieces by taking them not to mention getting into Florida, Georgia, South Carolina etc.

I CAN see the Big 10 being dissatisfied with the current state of things whereby the SEC is clearly superior. I CAN see them initiating action to try to change the equation. I CANNOT see the SEC sitting back and letting itself be outflanked by the Big 10 acquiring 2-4 extremely valuable properties from the ACC without responding.

I could see another possibility which is when (not if) Maryland gets out of at least the vast majority of the $50 million payment, fsu and Clemson and/or Ga Tech and maybe scUM? making a move to get out of the ACC and into the Big 12. Again, this is probably worthwhile for the Big 12 to do. If that happens then again the ACC is unviable and the Big 10 and SEC pounce on the valuable properties in North Carolina and Virginia that are left.

I think the fsu alumni and fanbase is much more keen on making a move and that this will ultimately have a big influence on their profs and administrators who are against making a move right now.....read their boards. They are keenly aware of the fact that they are falling behind by being in the ACC...the latest coach being poached by Bama after just a month on the job is yet another warning shot on top of losing half a mil on the ACC championship game. UNC won't move first-that much is clear but can you say the same about others such as UVA and GT? fsu? I think once one or two keystones are removed, it will be an avalanche.

Its the PAC that's in the weakest position here. They only have one possibility that is financially worthwhile for them.

[rpmGator]

North Carolina runs the ACC. Giving up that power, for bucks, isn't what they have done in the past.

A buddy of mine once made a joke at a party that anyone born north of Sanford, was a yankee. A guy from Virginia wanted to fight over it. Just saying...

I have my doubts on this one, but have been wrong before when some sell out.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

Where I disagree with you is, I think if the Big 10 grabs a couple from the ACC in another raid, then the SEC will respond by also launching a raid of its own on the ACC to secure a footprint in North Carolina and Virginia. An ACC that has just lost 4 more including presumably its heartland of North Carolina and Virginia with all 4 of the big state schools in those two states now gone...the ACC is doomed. Its just no longer viable at that point. Then you see an fsu/Clemson/Ga Tech/scUM + 2 more try to get into the Big 12.....and the Big 12 ensures itself of being one of the final 4 and ensures it won't be torn to pieces by taking them not to mention getting into Florida, Georgia, South Carolina etc.

I would agree that if UNC expresses an interest in leaving the ACC, that might set the SEC into action, but I don't think that's likely right now.

I also don't think the SEC will expand in response to what the Big-10 does, nor do I believe the SEC cares much if the Big-10 takes GT and UVA and while those would be big losses for the ACC, the ACC could probably hang on for a while.

The SEC will expand when the right opportunity strikes, not because they feel pressured. What will force the SEC's hand is if one of it's primary potential targets looks like it would move - I believe those are UNC, VT and OU. I think until one or more of those schools is on the table, the SEC sticks at 14. VT and NCSU are probably the SEC's for the asking, so there's probably no need to panic. They can still get into NC and VA when they're ready.

As for the Big-12, I already think GT is most likely going to the Big-10 with UVA and the Big-12 won't want Miami unless FSU ends up elsewhere. I really don't think Miami is going anywhere. And as I've said, I don't think FSU wants to go to the Big-12 unless they feel like the Big-12 is totally stable, which I don't think it is. And I don't think Clemson goes it alone. So I'm not sure the Big-12 is going to have the option of taking anybody from the ACC right now. I'm sure they'd like to, but I don't know that any of the ACC schools really feel like the Big-12 is in a much better long term position than the ACC. It might happen but I wouldn't count on it.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

I CAN see the Big 10 being dissatisfied with the current state of things whereby the SEC is clearly superior. I CAN see them initiating action to try to change the equation. I CANNOT see the SEC sitting back and letting itself be outflanked by the Big 10 acquiring 2-4 extremely valuable properties from the ACC without responding.

I could see another possibility which is when (not if) Maryland gets out of at least the vast majority of the $50 million payment, fsu and Clemson and/or Ga Tech and maybe scUM? making a move to get out of the ACC and into the Big 12. Again, this is probably worthwhile for the Big 12 to do. If that happens then again the ACC is unviable and the Big 10 and SEC pounce on the valuable properties in North Carolina and Virginia that are left.

The SEC didn't flinch when the Big-10 got the DC and NYC markets with UMD and Rutgers. And I don't think they'll flinch if the Big-10 gets GT or UVA because they know they can get a strong hold in NC and VA whenever they want. The Big-10 hasn't outmaneuvered the SEC yet and won't unless they get UNC interested.

For the ACC teams like Clemson and FSU, the idea of getting out from under the $50 million buyout is GREAT, but joining the Big-12 would totally handcuff them with the media rights for years and years, which could be even worse. Neither is a very good solution in the grand scheme of things. That's why I think FSU has kind of put the brakes on the Big-12 and is pushing the Big-10 and SEC so hard.

It's all just guessing games right now, but while FSU and Clemson are absolutely desperate to get out of the ACC, I think they can also probably see that the Big-12 may not be that much better and ultimately they could end up right back with those ACC teams if the Big-12 and ACC merge at some point.

[HungaryGator]

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

I would agree that if UNC expresses an interest in leaving the ACC, that might set the SEC into action, but I don't think that's likely right now.

I also don't think the SEC will expand in response to what the Big-10 does, nor do I believe the SEC cares much if the Big-10 takes GT and UVA and while those would be big losses for the ACC, the ACC could probably hang on for a while.

The SEC will expand when the right opportunity strikes, not because they feel pressured. What will force the SEC's hand is if one of it's primary potential targets looks like it would move - I believe those are UNC, VT and OU. I think until one or more of those schools is on the table, the SEC sticks at 14. VT and NCSU are probably the SEC's for the asking, so there's probably no need to panic. They can still get into NC and VA when they're ready.

North Carolina and Virginia are the really big prizes. If it became possible to get into one or both of them with the schools the SEC would want (top choice in Virginia = Va Tech, top in North Carolina = UNC though NC State would work well enough) then the SEC will move. You simply don't get the opportunity to add schools which add value very often. When the opportunity presents itself you move on it especially when others are in competition for them as well. The SEC has not been reactive in the last generation and I don't think it will be now either.

As for the Big-12, I already think GT is most likely going to the Big-10 with UVA and the Big-12 won't want Miami unless FSU ends up elsewhere. I really don't think Miami is going anywhere. And as I've said, I don't think FSU wants to go to the Big-12 unless they feel like the Big-12 is totally stable, which I don't think it is. And I don't think Clemson goes it alone. So I'm not sure the Big-12 is going to have the option of taking anybody from the ACC right now. I'm sure they'd like to, but I don't know that any of the ACC schools really feel like the Big-12 is in a much better long term position than the ACC. It might happen but I wouldn't count on it.

basically agree with this though football is sacred and holy to the fsu fanbase and alums and if precious football looks like it is or might be left behind, the desperation will be palpable. There is already a strong anti-ACC sentiment among them and should their football fortunes decline I could see them exerting enough pressure to force fsu out of the ACC.

The SEC didn't flinch when the Big-10 got the DC and NYC markets with UMD and Rutgers. And I don't think they'll flinch if the Big-10 gets GT or UVA because they know they can get a strong hold in NC and VA whenever they want. The Big-10 hasn't outmaneuvered the SEC yet and won't unless they get UNC interested.

The SEC didn't want Maryland or Rutgers and those schools have yet to prove they can actually deliver those markets anyway - they never have before. It will be a different thing IMO should the Big 10 move on Ga Tech, UVA, UNC.

For the ACC teams like Clemson and FSU, the idea of getting out from under the $50 million buyout is GREAT, but joining the Big-12 would totally handcuff them with the media rights for years and years, which could be even worse. Neither is a very good solution in the grand scheme of things. That's why I think FSU has kind of put the brakes on the Big-12 and is pushing the Big-10 and SEC so hard.

Everything you say is true....but I think you underestimate the fear/desperation among the fsu fanbase and just how loud the screams to "DO SOMETHING!!!! MY GOD WE ARE FALLING HOPELESSLY BEHIND IN THE HOLY OF HOLIES.....FOOTBALL!!!!!!" could easily get among them. I could see them overwhelming cooler heads in their administration quite easily.

It's all just guessing games right now, but while FSU and Clemson are absolutely desperate to get out of the ACC, I think they can also probably see that the Big-12 may not be that much better and ultimately they could end up right back with those ACC teams if the Big-12 and ACC merge at some point.

I don't think their fans look on the Big 12 as badly as you do. Yes its true that Kansas and Baylor do nothing for them but at least they'd have Bevo and Oklahoma which would offer some premier matchups as well as Worst Virginia and some others who would probably follow in their wake (Clemson). A schedule with Texas, WVU, Oklahoma and Clemson would be pretty appealing. They could get attention, get respect and sell tickets with that....a lot more than they're getting now. Sure they'd much prefer the SEC but most of them see that's not going to happen. They'd probably prefer the Big 10 but the realistic among them see that that's far fetched given their academic standing. The Big Bevo? That's doable especially if they could get Clemson and at least some of scUM, Ga Tech, Louisville to follow.


As for Ga Tech and UVA...I could see (particularly for Ga Tech) a Big 10 invite being appealing. The payout is a lot bigger than for the ACC and it satisfies the academic snobbery of every prof on campus.

[gymgator]

If we want that NC market UNC is the team I would want in the SEC. Next would be UVA to get the VA market. Great schools, great sports programs.

[elrongator]

We should go after Duke and North Carolina just to jam basketball dominance and keep that storied rivalry alive.

[1984Gator]

I tend to agree with this line of thinking. The name of the game right now is to maintain qualitiative superiority while expanding our footprint into contiguous states with large TV viewership. It's important to maintain the culture and the tradition of the SEC while folding in a couple more premier names in top tier states. Look at the difference in the way Texas A&M is viewed relative to texas after one season in the SEC. A&M is a huge school of academic quality, a large and loyal fanbase, and a very populous state. Exapnsion into texas and Missouri has already proven quite valuable as evidenced by the new TV contract at $34 million per team for tier 1 rights. North Carolina and Virginia could be similarly important states in the SEC footpring without seriously compromising our culture. UNC and UVA are the better schools but I think Va Tech would be a better fit in the SEC. Va Tech is a quality school and is larger than UVA with a better developed fanbase. UNC is the gem because it not only is a highly regarded academic institution, it competes seriously in a variety of SEC sports and could bring very significant benefit to the SEC's basketball reputation. This will equate to real TV viewership and real value added.

Until recently I have been of the opinion that UNC and Va Tech are the only real expansions candidtates with NC State being the fall back in North Carolina but consider this fact. The SEC has signed roughly 40% of all 5* and 4* recruits over the past 12 plus years. The SEC has done this very consistently while the runner up each year signs roughly half the number of these top recruits. Moreover, the conference that finishes second changes from year to year. When USC is signing great classes, the PAC does better, OSU B1G or FSU ACC. Texas/OU B12. The number 2 conference seems to change every year nd the important fact to remember is that whichever conference that is usually gets 20% or less of these top recruits. The SEC is in a commanding position talentwise and as that knowledge has become widespread, the competitive advantage is growing. I've never been in favor of duplicating the footprint by adding FSU, Clemson or Texas, nor have I been a big fan of signing Oklahoma because the state's viewership is limited to its small population. However, if these teams were to be removed from their respective conference signees and added to the SEC, the quality advantage the SEC enjoys would be amplified that much again. Suddenly the SEC would be getting 50-60% of the best signees and the B1G would become the #2 at something less than 20% on average. The ACC and B12 wouldn't be much better than the Big East!

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

Where I disagree with you is, I think if the Big 10 grabs a couple from the ACC in another raid, then the SEC will respond by also launching a raid of its own on the ACC to secure a footprint in North Carolina and Virginia. An ACC that has just lost 4 more including presumably its heartland of North Carolina and Virginia with all 4 of the big state schools in those two states now gone...the ACC is doomed. Its just no longer viable at that point. Then you see an fsu/Clemson/Ga Tech/scUM + 2 more try to get into the Big 12.....and the Big 12 ensures itself of being one of the final 4 and ensures it won't be torn to pieces by taking them not to mention getting into Florida, Georgia, South Carolina etc.

I CAN see the Big 10 being dissatisfied with the current state of things whereby the SEC is clearly superior. I CAN see them initiating action to try to change the equation. I CANNOT see the SEC sitting back and letting itself be outflanked by the Big 10 acquiring 2-4 extremely valuable properties from the ACC without responding.

I could see another possibility which is when (not if) Maryland gets out of at least the vast majority of the $50 million payment, fsu and Clemson and/or Ga Tech and maybe scUM? making a move to get out of the ACC and into the Big 12. Again, this is probably worthwhile for the Big 12 to do. If that happens then again the ACC is unviable and the Big 10 and SEC pounce on the valuable properties in North Carolina and Virginia that are left.

I think the fsu alumni and fanbase is much more keen on making a move and that this will ultimately have a big influence on their profs and administrators who are against making a move right now.....read their boards. They are keenly aware of the fact that they are falling behind by being in the ACC...the latest coach being poached by Bama after just a month on the job is yet another warning shot on top of losing half a mil on the ACC championship game. UNC won't move first-that much is clear but can you say the same about others such as UVA and GT? fsu? I think once one or two keystones are removed, it will be an avalanche.

Its the PAC that's in the weakest position here. They only have one possibility that is financially worthwhile for them.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

North Carolina and Virginia are the really big prizes. If it became possible to get into one or both of them with the schools the SEC would want (top choice in Virginia = Va Tech, top in North Carolina = UNC though NC State would work well enough) then the SEC will move. You simply don't get the opportunity to add schools which add value very often. When the opportunity presents itself you move on it especially when others are in competition for them as well. The SEC has not been reactive in the last generation and I don't think it will be now either.

You're making my point! If the SEC just wanted into those markets, they could have already done that and the Big-10 taking UVA and GT wouldn't keep the SEC from doing that. So there's no point in the SEC reacting because at worst case, they can probably get VT and NCSU any time they want.

Like I said, the one thing will make the SEC act is if UNC is in play, but right now, I don't think they are.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

basically agree with this though football is sacred and holy to the fsu fanbase and alums and if precious football looks like it is or might be left behind, the desperation will be palpable. There is already a strong anti-ACC sentiment among them and should their football fortunes decline I could see them exerting enough pressure to force fsu out of the ACC.

Again, it's not that FSU doesn't want out of the ACC, they most definitely do! My point is that I think there is a realization that the Big-12 might not be much better. That's why they are pushing so hard to get the Big-10 to take them.

Imagine if they pay a reduced $20 million buyout to go to the Big-12 and then in 2 years, the PAC-12 takes the Texas schools and the ACC and Big-12 merge. That would suck for them ... but be funny as hell!

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

The SEC didn't want Maryland or Rutgers and those schools have yet to prove they can actually deliver those markets anyway - they never have before. It will be a different thing IMO should the Big 10 move on Ga Tech, UVA, UNC.

GT and UVA - no. UNC - yes!

Believe it or not, UMD is a better value than either UVA or GT. But the Big-10 wants GT because it gets them into arguably the top college football TV market in the country ... even though few people in Atlanta will watch GT. While it's a bigger school, UVA really doesn't offer as much. They already got the DC market with UMD. Personally, I think the Big-10 wants UNC over UVA.

I actually think the SEC might have had interest in UMD. Not a top SEC candidate but they would have been a candidate with NCSU, VT, UVA, UNC. UMD is a HUGE school with lots or resources.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

Everything you say is true....but I think you underestimate the fear/desperation among the fsu fanbase and just how loud the screams to "DO SOMETHING!!!! MY GOD WE ARE FALLING HOPELESSLY BEHIND IN THE HOLY OF HOLIES.....FOOTBALL!!!!!!" could easily get among them. I could see them overwhelming cooler heads in their administration quite easily.

I don't think I underestimate it at all! And I think it's definitely possible that FSU ends up in the Big-12. I'm just saying it's not a slam dunk decision. When they look at all the possibilities, they might realize that the Big-12 is a big risk.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

I don't think their fans look on the Big 12 as badly as you do. Yes its true that Kansas and Baylor do nothing for them but at least they'd have Bevo and Oklahoma which would offer some premier matchups as well as Worst Virginia and some others who would probably follow in their wake (Clemson). A schedule with Texas, WVU, Oklahoma and Clemson would be pretty appealing. They could get attention, get respect and sell tickets with that....a lot more than they're getting now. Sure they'd much prefer the SEC but most of them see that's not going to happen. They'd probably prefer the Big 10 but the realistic among them see that that's far fetched given their academic standing. The Big Bevo? That's doable especially if they could get Clemson and at least some of scUM, Ga Tech, Louisville to follow.

I think you are misinterpreting my point. I'm not saying the Big-12 isn't considerably more desirable than the ACC right now. The Big-12 is definitely stronger. It's no contest.

My point is that they SHOULD look at the overall picture, not just where things are now. When the Pac-12 expands, and at some point they almost have to, you and I both agree they're coming for Texas, TTU, OU and OSU (possibly Baylor in place of TTU). But regardless, the Big-12 is probably headed for the same position as the ACC with the rest of it's top programs leaving. It could be even worse and it's probably just a matter of time. Neither will be viable on their own and I can see a realistic possibility of the remains of the Big-12 and ACC merging.

FSU just needs to take that into serious consideration ... and I think they're doing just that. Think that's why they're pushing the Big-10 and SEC so hard.

[HungaryGator]

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

You're making my point! If the SEC just wanted into those markets, they could have already done that and the Big-10 taking UVA and GT wouldn't keep the SEC from doing that. So there's no point in the SEC reacting because at worst case, they can probably get VT and NCSU any time they want.

Like I said, the one thing will make the SEC act is if UNC is in play, but right now, I don't think they are.

I don't agree that the SEC could already have done that or could right now do that. It will take something else destabilizing the ACC to shake some of those loose.

Again, it's not that FSU doesn't want out of the ACC, they most definitely do! My point is that I think there is a realization that the Big-12 might not be much better. That's why they are pushing so hard to get the Big-10 to take them.

We mostly agree here though I think many of them do think the Big 12 would be a lot better...its just that they think the Big 10 would be better still. They really have an extremely low opinion of the ACC....took them 20 years but they've finally gotten to the point that they can admit the ACC sucks though many of them still fiercely resist admitting they screwed up 20 years ago and that it was their choice to turn down the SEC...so entertaining to watch the contortions they go through after assuring us the ACC "isn't that bad" and "is getting better" for so long.

Imagine if they pay a reduced $20 million buyout to go to the Big-12 and then in 2 years, the PAC-12 takes the Texas schools and the ACC and Big-12 merge. That would suck for them ... but be funny as hell!

*IF* the Big 12 got say fsu, scUM, Clemson, Louisville, Ga Tech and one more....say Duke....there's no way Bevo, and thus his satellites, would ever head to the PAC. Bevo would be THE dominant power in control of one of the final 4 superconferences. There would be real compromises involved in being a member of the PAC. Bevo is not interested in compromise.

GT and UVA - no. UNC - yes!

GT no I can see. I DO think them taking UVA though will prompt the SEC to make a move on Va Tech.

Believe it or not, UMD is a better value than either UVA or GT. But the Big-10 wants GT because it gets them into arguably the top college football TV market in the country ... even though few people in Atlanta will watch GT. While it's a bigger school, UVA really doesn't offer as much. They already got the DC market with UMD. Personally, I think the Big-10 wants UNC over UVA.

I don't agree MD is more valuable. Being in a big market does not mean you can deliver that market. I think the Big 10 is going to find this out.....

I agree with you that the Big 10 wants UNC over UVA....so does the SEC for obvious reasons. UNC is a bigger school in a bigger state with a much bigger fanbase.

I actually think the SEC might have had interest in UMD. Not a top SEC candidate but they would have been a candidate with NCSU, VT, UVA, UNC. UMD is a HUGE school with lots or resources.

Totally disagree here. MD doesn't have the fanbase, can't deliver DC, their facilities are a joke, they are not contiguous to any SEC state and they are a total cultural mismatch for the SEC.

I don't think I underestimate it at all!...

OK......I do so enjoy watching them squirm though. If you haven't been watching their boards I highly recommend it! Their desperation is palpable. Its very entertaining.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

I don't agree that the SEC could already have done that or could right now do that. It will take something else destabilizing the ACC to shake some of those loose.

It's okay if we disagree. I think VT and NCSU would jump at an offer right now.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

We mostly agree here though I think many of them do think the Big 12 would be a lot better...its just that they think the Big 10 would be better still. They really have an extremely low opinion of the ACC....took them 20 years but they've finally gotten to the point that they can admit the ACC sucks though many of them still fiercely resist admitting they screwed up 20 years ago and that it was their choice to turn down the SEC...so entertaining to watch the contortions they go through after assuring us the ACC "isn't that bad" and "is getting better" for so long.

I think 99% of the people in the country would say the Big-12 would be a no brainer move for FSU. And so long as Texas and OU are in the Big-12, it is definitely a much better option.

I agree that FSU fans, even those who have supported the ACC to the end will freely admit FSU screwed themselves by not jumping to the SEC when they had the chance.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

*IF* the Big 12 got say fsu, scUM, Clemson, Louisville, Ga Tech and one more....say Duke....there's no way Bevo, and thus his satellites, would ever head to the PAC. Bevo would be THE dominant power in control of one of the final 4 superconferences. There would be real compromises involved in being a member of the PAC. Bevo is not interested in compromise.

If they did all that than maybe, but they won't. FSU and Clemson are probably the only 2 ACC programs that would help them and Texas might agree too, but remember that Texas vetoed FSU and Clemson alone already. Texas doesn't want Clemson. UL is a possible option as well and was close to getting into the Big-12 over WVU. GT would help but I think they'll be in the Big-10. Nobody wants Miami. Miami hold no value, especially if the Big-12 gets FSU. Nobody wants Duke unless they get UNC either. FSU, Clemson and UL aren't going to keep Texas there if the Pac-12 comes calling. But I think Clemson and FSU could keep the Big-12 going for a while, even without Texas and OU.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

GT no I can see. I DO think them taking UVA though will prompt the SEC to make a move on Va Tech.

We can disagree here too. VT isn't going anywhere and will be available if/when the SEC wants them. Big-10 doesn't want them. There's no reason for the SEC to act until they are ready or need to make a move. The might do it, but they don't have to. VT will be there when the SEC calls. So will NCSU.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

I don't agree MD is more valuable. Being in a big market does not mean you can deliver that market. I think the Big 10 is going to find this out.....

I agree with you that the Big 10 wants UNC over UVA....so does the SEC for obvious reasons. UNC is a bigger school in a bigger state with a much bigger fanbase.

Totally disagree here. MD doesn't have the fanbase, can't deliver DC, their facilities are a joke, they are not contiguous to any SEC state and they are a total cultural mismatch for the SEC.

Has little to do with market size. Well actually it does for the basic cable carriage fees. But my comments are based more on the resources a school has.

You underestimate Maryland. It's a BIG school. 38,000 students and a large alumni base. Plus the Under Armor money.

UVA only has about 21,000 students, though it's a wealthier school. GT also has about 21,000 students.

None of the schools is heavy on athletics or rabid fans but Maryland has about double the base of students/alumni of either UVA or GT. They can grow their fan support much more easily than UVA or GT.

Rutgers is even bigger at about 57,000 students (Bigger than UF), though there are 4 campuses.

In addition to just the NYC and DC TV markets the Big-10 wanted, they picked 2 universities in UMD and Rutgers with large student and alumni bases and large resources!

Don't sell UMD short. In my opinion, they're much more valuable than UVA and the Atlanta TV market makes GT much more valuable to the Big-10 than UVA right now. The SEC would have at least looked at UMD as a candidate.

[gatorev12]

One way or another, I don't think the SEC is going to get caught unawares regardless of what the Big 10 or Pac 12 do.

We have the strongest brand in college football right now and some of the highest bargaining power.

UNC, VTech, UVA, and NC State are obviously the teams we'd make a play for...but if they decide to go the Big 10 route, I think the SEC could easily turn around and make a play for some combination of OU, Ok State, Texas, Baylor, TT, and/or TCU. Those states fit in better culturally with the SEC--and there are more connections between those schools and SEC schools (Arkansas, Missouri, LSU, and obviously A&M all have ties and/or rivalries to those other schools).

[gatorkev_85]

Just my opionion here but, with how well A&M has done in the SEC playing and recruiting wise. I think if things start picking up again that OU and OK St will come knocking at the door to get in the SEC. That will force UT to go independent do to there massive ego's. Just what I think happens.

[LimeyGator]

Is it just me that finds it amusing that a group of educational establishments talk about expanding their conference to 16 but still call themselves the Big 10?

[rpmGator]

Football is where the money is at. And Virginny sucks at it, and NC isn't much better.

Adding bad teams won't bring more fans than the set that went to those schools. NC vs Purdue isn't much better than NC vs Wake in my opinion and I would prefer to see Wake than Purdue.

The SEC has a better quality game, and already can be seen in all states. Which means more will watch Bama-aTm than another bad game between bad teams.

They can take USC, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Texas, and their fans will still have to watch us win titles... And that is who the fans from around tha nation will watch as well.

You can take a market, but you can't make them watch.

[tilly]

Originally Posted by elrongator

We should go after Duke and North Carolina just to jam basketball dominance and keep that storied rivalry alive.

I gree 100% ...I think this may prove to be the ONLY way to pull UNC. If Dukes included they are much more likely to convince the boosters and bluebloods to make that move.

That would guarantee the Gators play within 2 hours of me almost every year in football and maybe twice a year in hoops!

I'm in...Lets do it!

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by tilly

I gree 100% ...I think this may prove to be the ONLY way to pull UNC. If Dukes included they are much more likely to convince the boosters and bluebloods to make that move.

That would guarantee the Gators play within 2 hours of me almost every year in football and maybe twice a year in hoops!

I'm in...Lets do it!

I like that self-serving strategy!