North Carolina has officially been offered to join the Big Ten

[gator996]

I understand Duke regularly sucks in football and is a private institution but...

Would you want NC State or Duke?

Outside of football, there's a good argument for Duke's other programs.

Men's basketball, soccer, lax
Women's basketball, soccer, lax

I think are all national championship caliber right now


NC State national championship caliber in anything?


And when you throw in the academics....



VaTech & Duke > VaTech & NC State?

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by MiddleTNgator

Didn't the Big 10 mention possibly going as high as 20?

If so, it seems there plan could be UNC and Virginia followed by Clemson, GA Tech, FSU, and Miami. Especially with the SEC not wanting those schools and possible fear of a Big 12 implosion by an expanding Pac12

That is possible but it doesn't appear under any scenario that Clemson or Miami are part of the Big-10's plans.

The most likely scenario is that GT and UVA go first. There are rumblings that those 2 schools have just been waiting for the Maryland resolution. GT is a real prize prize as it would bring arguably the biggest college football TV of all to the Big-10, even though they'd be a distant second to the SEC in Atlanta.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by gator996

I understand Duke regularly sucks in football and is a private institution but...

Would you want NC State or Duke?

Outside of football, there's a good argument for Duke's other programs.

Men's basketball, soccer, lax
Women's basketball, soccer, lax

I think are all national championship caliber right now


NC State national championship caliber in anything?


And when you throw in the academics....



VaTech & Duke > VaTech & NC State?

The problem is that it's not really about athletics as much as it's about resources, and particularly football resources with basketball being secondary. How good a football team has performed really isn't even part of the equation. Right now, it's all about who's going to draw the most viewers, particularly for football.

Duke is a very unique case because it's a very small school (under 15,000 students, most of which are postgraduate), which means there's also a small alumni base and almost zero support or interest in football. Duke is really the worst case scenario for football revenues.

But at the same time, Duke is a very wealthy school with a HUGE $5.6 billion endowment - that's about 4 times UF's endowment which is considered big. And it is an elite basketball program with a HUGE national following - probably top 5 in the country. And it's a very strong academic school.

By comparison, NCSU has about 35,000 students, so it's a big school, even by SEC standards and has a sizable alumni and good support for football and basketball.

Duke, on it's own, really isn't a good fit under any scenario for the SEC or the Big-10.

The real question is that because UNC is such a huge jewel in expansion, the SEC and Big-10 will have to weight whether or not the huge benefit UNC provides is going to be worth taking Duke. I don't believe the SEC or Big-10 will be willing to do that, unless they decide to go beyond 16 teams.

But to your point, there is NO WAY that, at least for the SEC, Duke is a better fit than NCSU.

[gator996]

Nobody wanted Syracuse for their football resources alone...
Maryland moving wasn't about football resources alone...


An institution like Duke is unique for the reasons you listed (I'm lazier than you... )


But as a TV market, who has more pull...NC State or Duke telecasts?

Because that's all NC is if you don't land UNC....

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by gator996

Nobody wanted Syracuse for their football resources alone...
Maryland moving wasn't about football resources alone...

An institution like Duke is unique for the reasons you listed (I'm lazier than you... )

I think maybe you're on a different argument.

Maryland has HUGE resources! It's a very big school with a huge alumni and lots of money and a decent football program. It may not be big by SEC standards but don't sell the Maryland football program short. They have very good football resources, plus they have Under Armor money.

Syracuse is also a bigger school than Duke with much better fan support and a pretty strong football history. They've been down for the last decade or 2 but they are a decent football program with decent resources. They aren't as big as UMD but also didn't have the interest the Big-10 had in UMD.

Duke doesn't compare to either of these schools in terms of football resources.

Originally Posted by gator996

But as a TV market, who has more pull...NC State or Duke telecasts?

If you're asking that question, you didn't read my post very well. NCSU has SIGNIFICANTLY more TV pull than Duke in football, which is what it's all about for the SEC. It's not even close. Basketball might be a different story, but basketball is a very secondary consideration for the SEC.

I don't think Duke has ANY shot of getting into the Big-10 or SEC on it's own, not even a small shot. Their only shot is if they're brought in as a package deal with UNC.

And even at that, unless the SEC decides to go beyond 16 teams, as HUGE a get as UNC would be, I don't believe the SEC would even take Duke in a package deal to get UNC right now.

[ACCecil]

I think Duke is waking up to the fact that if you put money into it you can have a great football program to go along with all the other things that make Duke an amazing place.

Duke, for a long time, looked at football about the same way the Ivies do .... which is too say about as well as you would look to having a 6 foot rat in your kitchen.

The Ivies famously have turned their back on football and to this day Harvard plays in 80% empty stadium a few saturdays each fall. What a shame. What a waste.

Stanford, right now, might be a great example of what Duke should aspire to be. Right now, it appears to me, that the Big-10 is trying to out flank the SEC by trying to get UNC which is much more valuable to the Big-10 than ND will ever be.

ND is about to get out flanked as well.

My only question is will it stop at 16 or 18 or 20?

If it is 16, the SEC only has two spots left and FSU certainly won't be one of them. In that case, FSU is doomed to join the Baylor Freaking Bears, The K State Freaking Wildcats and the Kansas Freaking Jayhawks in some far away distant cold planet that would make me puke so much I might actually stop watching FSU football and change my name SECecil ... no, I still won't do that, but it would suck.

Agh, but if it is 18 or 20 FSU could end up somewhere much better than Bevo and the 11 dwarfs conference.

[atlantagator86]

ACCecil:

Interesting analogy with Stanford and Duke. Similar size schools with comparable resources. Except that Stanford used to be a pretty decent football program. It just kind of went dormant for a while until Cal decided to beef up their program and Stanford kind of followed their lead. But having that football history made that transition a little easier. It would be almost impossible for Duke to do what Stanford has done just by putting money into it.

I also agree that the Big-10 is probably trying to strike with UNC before the SEC does and probably trying to see if they can get UNC instead of GT or UVA when they go to 16. But I'm not sure I think it works.

Not sure I agree on the value of UNC versus Notre Dame. UNC is HUGE but Notre Dame might be in a league of their own in terms of national support and revenue potential.

I also agree with you that FSU is in a very tight spot. The SEC appears to not be interested at all and as I posted earlier, a move to the Big-12 could put them in the exact same position of being stuck in a dying conference as soon as the Pac-12 decides it needs to expand. It could actually be a worse position if they have to sign over all their media rights for 10-12 years.

FSU is apparently really lobbying the Big-10 hard because I think finding a way to get into the Big-10 might be their only real hope.

Personally, I think the number for conference expansion, at least for a while, is going to be 16, largely due to the attractiveness of the programs out there. Particularly the Pac-12 would have a tough time getting beyond that number and to even get to 16, they have to raid the Big-12 (UT, TT, OU and OSU). 16 makes sense to me for the Pac-12.

The SEC probably wants to add a school in NC and VA, with a very outside chance of OU. I'm not really sure where else even makes sense to expand for the SEC. You look at it on a map, and there's really not much else out there that makes sense. So, again, 16 just makes sense.

And I don't see the Big-10 taking more than 2 more than the SEC or Pac-12. So even if the SEC and Pac-12 go to 16, I don't see the Big-10 going beyond 16 or maybe 18. Maybe further down the road, they go beyond these numbers, but not for a while.

So lets say it pans out how I suggest. The Big-12 loses UT, TT, OU and OSU to the Pac-12. The Big-10 adds UVA and GT from the ACC and The SEC adds VT and UNC/NCSU.

The Big-12 would have 6 teams remaining and the ACC has 10 left. Maybe somewhere along the line, FSU and Clemson move to the Big-12 too, so it's 8 and 8 but the point is the same. That's where I think what remains of the ACC and Big-12 might merge into a 4th 16-team conference, albeit significantly weaker. It would make a lot of sense for the remaining members of both conferences. That's the biggest reason why I think FSU is hesitant to move to the Big-12. They know ultimately, they are possibly going to wind up in the same place.

[RealDeal]

the SEC should have moved hard years ago to get UNC and UVA to the SEC. Now, they will be stuck with nc state, va tech, etc.

[nawlinsgator]

Originally Posted by tegator80

Kind of surprised with this move. They really don't have anything in common with the Mid-west. Probably thought that they could compete better there than in the SEC. Not sure what 2 teams the SEC is courting to get to 16. And NO, not FSU and Clemson. Bad choices looking forward.

It seems the SEC had those two states in mind also....North Carolina and Virginia, to expand their footprint.
Looks like the Big 10 beat them to it. First time for everything I guess.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by RealDeal

the SEC should have moved hard years ago to get UNC and UVA to the SEC. Now, they will be stuck with nc state, va tech, etc.

A few years ago, you could have never gotten UVA or UNC to even consider leaving the ACC. Those schools have such a history together and a few years ago, the ACC still looked pretty strong. I don't think anyone even thought it was a possibility until Maryland exposed the cracks in the core of the ACC.

I'm also not sure the SEC would feel "stuck" with VT. Based on the resources and support of the football programs and the culture, I think VT is probably a better overall fit for the SEC than UVA.

And while I personally prefer UNC over NCSU, I'm not sure I would exactly feel "stuck" with NCSU either.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by nawlinsgator

It seems the SEC had those two states in mind also....North Carolina and Virginia, to expand their footprint.
Looks like the Big 10 beat them to it. First time for everything I guess.

Not sure I think the Big-10 has beaten the SEC to anything. By most accounts, the Big-10 will add GT and UVA next. I think the SEC prefers VT over UVA and if there was any mutual interest between UVA and the SEC, they probably would have been talking by now. And the SEC has no real interest in adding GT.

But nothing has been said about UNC being ready to accept or even interested in the Big-10. Even the guy who broke the story clarified that there is nothing out there indicating UNC has any interest in accepting the offer. Only that the Big-10 has extended an offer in some form. So I guess you could say they beat the SEC in extending an offer, but that's it.

At this point, the question becomes whether UNC is interested in leaving the ACC without Duke, and then if so, whether the SEC steps in to at least talk to UNC before they make a decision.

[RattlerGator]

No, N.C. State would be a very good get for the SEC.

[gtr2x]

I can see how Duke would want a package deal with UNC, but what is in it for UNC? Why would they help out a major rival? Kind of strikes me like UF in a package deal with UM or UT with Vandy.
Yea, Duke has major endowments, etc, but it is still a small private school comprised mainly of out of staters.

NC State and Va T would probably fit fine culturally in the SEC. Neither one would ever win much tho.

[thedyc09]

How about we let the B1G go to 20 or, **** it, 30 and let them implode under the weight of useless expansion. I still say we ought to kick out 2 teams and go back to 12.

[HungaryGator]

In answer to some of the posts in this thread:

- I've been reading the UNC boards for a while and seeing what their fans/alums were saying on various national boards. The consistent story I get is that 80% to 90% of their fans and alums prefer the SEC and that they are definitively NOT tied to Duke and are NOT willing to go down the tubes in order to remain tied to Duke.

- Duke has almost no pull in the state of North Carolina. They are a private school. Their students come from all over. Most of them come from up North. They disperse after graduation. The fact that they are in North Carolina is irrelevant. They can't deliver North Carolina which in the end is what actually matters. Basketball generates maybe 1/4 of the revenue of football. Yes, even for a program like Kentucky which is a basketball powerhouse and which is quite mediocre in football. Duke is not valuable for an athletic conference.

- The spin put forth by Rust Belters that joining their conference will somehow help a university get a lot of research grants they were not otherwise getting is a joke. It doesn't happen. There is simply no evidence to support this. Nebraska saw no spike in their research grants after joining the Big 10. In fact, Nebraska lost their AAU status. So much for that absurd claim.

- Va Tech is a bigger school than UVA and while the two fanbases are said to be roughly equal in size, Va Tech's is on average younger and theirs has grown much faster. Given the much more developed football culture at Va Tech vs UVA, they are much more likely to be able to actually deliver Virginia and are a better cultural fit for the SEC.

- Ga Tech is in Atlanta. That does not mean they can deliver Atlanta. They can't. I've lived in Atlanta. There are more UGA fans in that city (let alone the whole state) than their are Tech fans. Other SEC schools like UF, Tennessee, Bama and Auburn have huge fan contingents in Atlanta and there are good sized contingents for sow and Kliempson as well. You see about as many Auburn bumper stickers for example as you do Tech....Tech takes in lots of foreign (ie Asian) students who don't care in the slightest for sports...hell they don't even know what football is. Tech is just not that valuable for an athletic conference.

- taking sow would be the shrewdest move the Big 10 could make. They won't make it. sow's academics just aren't good enough and academic snobbery counts for a great deal with the Rust Belters. Same story with Kliempson. Va Tech is a measurably better school than both (ie #79 in USN&WR rankings) and still probably wouldn't get an invitation from the Rust Belters due to not being in the AAU.

- While the fans/alums of UNC overwhelmingly favor the SEC, the professional Academics on campus as well as the wine and cheese portion of their fanbase might prefer the Big 10.....BUT...they are afraid that:

1) the roadtrips would suck...who the hell wants to see UNC play Purdue in November?

2) they have no ties with the Midwest while many of their alums work with specifically UF and UGA alums as well as other SEC alums

3) in the SEC they would instantly be able to rekindle their rivalries with Tennessee and South Carolina. There is no equivalent in the Big 10

4) it would mean death for their very good baseball program

5) the Rust Belt is in terminal demographic decline. The South is growing strongly, has a higher birthrate and a younger average age population.....not to mention VASTLY better recruiting grounds which is directly related to the above facts.

6) This one is a biggie......if they pass on the SEC and go to the Big 10 they know for a metaphysical certainty that the SEC would just pick up the phone to Raliegh 30 seconds after their announcement. They further know NC State would be only too happy to join the SEC. NC State would then instantly be a lot more attractive to in-state football recruits the majority of whom currently go to SEC schools (take a look at the top 10 in that state the last couple years....hell I think UF alone gobbled up 4-5 of the last two years' top 10 prospects).

NC State would also immediately hit them with the charge of "why would you want to support that Yankee school? They went with a bunch of Yankees over their fellow Southerners....like us. They turned their backs on all of us. Besides....do you want to go to New Orleans and Florida and Rocky Top and stay in Atlanta to see games vs UGA....or do you want to go to Illinois at the end of November? How about Iowa? Minnesota or Wisconsin anyone? ooh...how about Rutgers and scenic New Jersey? Yeah...that's what I thought. Come on over to our side where REAL North Carolinians belong. Let that Yankee school have the Yankee Carpetbaggers in Cary."

and that would work for NC State. Bigtime. My sister is a Duke grad. I went to high school in Asheville. I've lived in Raleigh. I am currently in Charlotte. I know this state. UNC going to the Big 10 would set NC State up for success-and UNC knows it.

[tilly]

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

In answer to some of the posts in this thread:

- I've been reading the UNC boards for a while and seeing what their fans/alums were saying on various national boards. The consistent story I get is that 80% to 90% of their fans and alums prefer the SEC and that they are definitively NOT tied to Duke and are NOT willing to go down the tubes in order to remain tied to Duke.

- Duke has almost no pull in the state of North Carolina. They are a private school. Their students come from all over. Most of them come from up North. They disperse after graduation. The fact that they are in North Carolina is irrelevant. They can't deliver North Carolina which in the end is what actually matters. Basketball generates maybe 1/4 of the revenue of football. Yes, even for a program like Kentucky which is a basketball powerhouse and which is quite mediocre in football. Duke is not valuable for an athletic conference.

- The spin put forth by Rust Belters that joining their conference will somehow help a university get a lot of research grants they were not otherwise getting is a joke. It doesn't happen. There is simply no evidence to support this. Nebraska saw no spike in their research grants after joining the Big 10. In fact, Nebraska lost their AAU status. So much for that absurd claim.

- Va Tech is a bigger school than UVA and while the two fanbases are said to be roughly equal in size, Va Tech's is on average younger and theirs has grown much faster. Given the much more developed football culture at Va Tech vs UVA, they are much more likely to be able to actually deliver Virginia and are a better cultural fit for the SEC.

- Ga Tech is in Atlanta. That does not mean they can deliver Atlanta. They can't. I've lived in Atlanta. There are more UGA fans in that city (let alone the whole state) than their are Tech fans. Other SEC schools like UF, Tennessee, Bama and Auburn have huge fan contingents in Atlanta and there are good sized contingents for sow and Kliempson as well. You see about as many Auburn bumper stickers for example as you do Tech....Tech takes in lots of foreign (ie Asian) students who don't care in the slightest for sports...hell they don't even know what football is. Tech is just not that valuable for an athletic conference.

- taking sow would be the shrewdest move the Big 10 could make. They won't make it. sow's academics just aren't good enough and academic snobbery counts for a great deal with the Rust Belters. Same story with Kliempson. Va Tech is a measurably better school than both (ie #79 in USN&WR rankings) and still probably wouldn't get an invitation from the Rust Belters due to not being in the AAU.

- While the fans/alums of UNC overwhelmingly favor the SEC, the professional Academics on campus as well as the wine and cheese portion of their fanbase might prefer the Big 10.....BUT...they are afraid that:

1) the roadtrips would suck...who the hell wants to see UNC play Purdue in November?

2) they have no ties with the Midwest while many of their alums work with specifically UF and UGA alums as well as other SEC alums

3) in the SEC they would instantly be able to rekindle their rivalries with Tennessee and South Carolina. There is no equivalent in the Big 10

4) it would mean death for their very good baseball program

5) the Rust Belt is in terminal demographic decline. The South is growing strongly, has a higher birthrate and a younger average age population.....not to mention VASTLY better recruiting grounds which is directly related to the above facts.

6) This one is a biggie......if they pass on the SEC and go to the Big 10 they know for a metaphysical certainty that the SEC would just pick up the phone to Raliegh 30 seconds after their announcement. They further know NC State would be only too happy to join the SEC. NC State would then instantly be a lot more attractive to in-state football recruits the majority of whom currently go to SEC schools (take a look at the top 10 in that state the last couple years....hell I think UF alone gobbled up 4-5 of the last two years' top 10 prospects).

NC State would also immediately hit them with the charge of "why would you want to support that Yankee school? They went with a bunch of Yankees over their fellow Southerners....like us. They turned their backs on all of us. Besides....do you want to go to New Orleans and Florida and Rocky Top and stay in Atlanta to see games vs UGA....or do you want to go to Illinois at the end of November? How about Iowa? Minnesota or Wisconsin anyone? ooh...how about Rutgers and scenic New Jersey? Yeah...that's what I thought. Come on over to our side where REAL North Carolinians belong. Let that Yankee school have the Yankee Carpetbaggers in Cary."

and that would work for NC State. Bigtime. My sister is a Duke grad. I went to high school in Asheville. I've lived in Raleigh. I am currently in Charlotte. I know this state. UNC going to the Big 10 would set NC State up for success-and UNC knows it.

I disagree on one count. Duke. Much of what you said is true, but you dicount that duke does have a big fanbase...a non alumni fanbase, but a big one here. I think that factors into the equation as does the passion that UNC feels towards them, as you know, that rivalry means a great deal here. That makes it tough to separate UNC and Duke.

The rest of what you said...especially in reference to State is spot on. I've been stating for years that NC State football games have a mini-SEC feel to them, and they are not a basketball only fanbase like their big brothers over in Chapel Hill and Durham.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Tablet using Gator Country

[tegator80]

After reading the book above, I wonder if this was a leak to get the SEC to quit being so coy with UNC? It makes sense, since the SEC is standing pat until the next round of earthquakes.

And while I understand VaTech as a viable option from the outside looking in, I think that UNC and UVa are tied to the hip, not only in friendly rivalry but kindred spirit in university mission and history. They are much more a condition of accepting a move to a new conference than Duke.

If UNC and UVa do indeed go on to the Big ? then I see the SEC immediately picking up two of three teams: NC State, VaTech, or OU.

[oragator1]

UNC may have had an offer for months, but it doesn't mean they don't also have an SEC offer, and it doesn't mean that anything will happen until the MD suit is settled. That has expansion on hold because everyone wants to know their liability before leaping.

[HungaryGator]

The football game between UNC and Duke means nothing to either fan base. The basketball rivalry is big....BUT....there are easily enough basketball games played every year that the two could keep playing each other even if they weren't in the same conference.

Also....I don't see that having a bunch of non alum fans in New Jersey or New Yaaak who will turn on the TV and watch them when they play basketball counts for much. These people won't buy their gear or show up at their stadium or a bowl game or make donations. They aren't nearly as loyal as what the state schools get because people love the big state school out of pride in their state. Hell...Ben Hill Griffin only attended UF for what was it, one semester? You just won't find any Ben Hill Griffin's in their fanbase.

UNC has lots of fans who never attended but who love them because they are North Carolinians and UNC is the most high profile North Carolina school.

[atlantagator86]

Agree with Tilly about Duke. They have a large national following for basketball from casual fans, due to long-term success, so does UNC. Not unlike what Miami had a few years ago in football. People tend to become fans of the teams they see go deep into the tournament year after year.

But while NCSU may have more football crazy fans, I think if UNC came to the SEC, they would probably develop a strong football culture as well.

I don't think the SEC would go wrong with UNC or NCSU, but if UNC fans have been paying any attention to what's going on in Texas since Texas A&M joined the SEC, they might be smart not to give NCSU control over the state like Texas gave Texas A&M.

HungaryGator: Don't kid yourself. Those casual Duke fans DO buy merchandise. Both UNC and Duke are pretty high in the overall merchandise sales.