A Couple of Stats to Chew On

[tommyuf21]

Originally Posted by akaGatorhoops

It would be interesting to see how many of these close losses are on the road. I am not making excuses for the breakdowns, but home teams have a significant, inherent advantage in a late, tight game.

It's worth a few points. Sadly, we left those points at the free throw line.

I think I was pretty clear that I expected a loss tonight. I've seen enough games to know that this Missouri team wasn't going to lay down and die. They had something to prove and they played well. Some may point to their turnovers, but that's the way they play and we didn't take advantage of them anyway.

I would bet that almost everyone on this board has only seen Missouri play on the road and had no real idea of how much better they play in their gym.

[sec1]

this team can not win a close game and it will prevent us from winning it all ....

[gatormann]

There will be other close games and we have not lost them, yet.

[regurgigator]

I think we'll be fine.

Most of the plays (or more accurately misplays) that bothered me the most happened well before we got to the final 4 minutes of the game.

The one play that did bother me late was Young not going out to challenge Bower on the mid-range jumper that put them up 61-60. Maybe there was some confusion in his mind about whether he should go out to defend Bower, but whatever the cause or fault, it was a costly defensive breakdown.


I think when we get into the Tourney, these stats aren't going to make a bit of difference.


Good point by aka that all our close games (all 4 of them ) were away from the friendly confines of the O' Center.

[GothamGator]

Both winning a close game and beating a good team away from the comforts of home are skills that are critical in March and that top teams have to learn how to do. We haven't learned how to do either of them, and our opportunities are running out.

Our 2006 team was 0-6 in SEC play in games decided by 6 points or fewer. They turned that around in the SEC Tournament with close wins against two teamsthat had been causing hem problems, Arkansas and S. Carolina.

[gator2109]

The 08 UF football team was 0-1 in games decided by 10 points or less.

I don't buy any of this close game talk and having to win one before the tournament starts. If Boynton makes that last second shot last night somehow we are a completely different team and poised to make a run for the nets in Atlanta, but since he missed we should not expect a final four run?

We lost two games this year that fit this mold of close games. Both of them were away from home in two of the toughest environments NCAA basketball has to offer as the #5 team in the polls so the crowd was jacked. Yes, it sucks going back to last year that we have not come out on top in games like this but I'm not too concerned with it being a huge factor in March.

The SEC Tournament will tell me more about this team than a close road loss will.

[GothamGator]

This isn't football.

[gator2109]

I just took a look back at the last few national champions in their regular season. Common theme is close road losses. Most have under .500 records in games decided by 10 or less on the season. The rest of the games are comfortable wins at home or away against much more inferior competition.

Again, I'll judge on the SEC tourney showing.

[gator7_5]

Originally Posted by GothamGator

Our 2006 team was 0-6 in SEC play in games decided by 6 points or fewer. They turned that around in the SEC Tournament with close wins against two teamsthat had been causing hem problems, Arkansas and S. Carolina.

Impossible! Lack of regular season close score wins automatically excludes you from the FF.

I read so in GC.

[GothamGator]

I think you need to pay attention to both sentences in my post.

[gator7_5]

I did. The season isn't over. I was reffering to those who believe it is.

Question is, If we don't get our first close win in until the sweet 16, does that mean we automatically qualify then for the FF?

And, what if our first close win is in the NC game, do they still give us trophys?

[jmoliver]

The Gators are 58-75 in games with the margin of victory under 5 points under Billy.

[gator2109]

Originally Posted by jmoliver

The Gators are 58-75 in games with the margin of victory under 5 points under Billy.

Do you happen to have stats for some of the other top coaches on this as well?

[regurgigator]

Originally Posted by gator7_5

I did. The season isn't over. I was reffering to those who believe it is.

Question is, If we don't get our first close win in until the sweet 16, does that mean we automatically qualify then for the FF?

And, what if our first close win is in the NC game, do they still give us trophys?

Excellent!


And, I completely disagree with those that say this is a carbon copy of the Arizona loss. The 2 losses had very little in common IMO. We were just never that sharp with the ball last night and it got a little worse as Missouri upped the pressure around the 10-minute mark. I'd compare this loss to more like the Louisville game last year. But, each loss is different and not necessarily repeatable.


I have also seen over the years several Gator teams that have struggled with away games (and "neutral" court games near the other school), but have played just fine in a Tourney setting. The obvious conclusion is that playing in someone else's gym is a lot different than playing in a Tourney.


We just need to keep improving, and be ready to play sharp and exert our best defensive pressure (which can be suffocating) when Tourney play starts.

[gator7_5]

Originally Posted by regurgigator

Excellent!


And, I completely disagree with those that say this is a carbon copy of the Arizona loss. The 2 losses had very little in common IMO. We were just never that sharp with the ball last night and it got a little worse as Missouri upped the pressure around the 10-minute mark. I'd compare this loss to more like the Louisville game last year. But, each loss is different and not necessarily repeatable.


I have also seen over the years several Gator teams that have struggled with away games (and "neutral" court games near the other school), but have played just fine in a Tourney setting. The obvious conclusion is that playing in someone else's gym is a lot different than playing in a Tourney.


We just need to keep improving, and be ready to play sharp and exert our best defensive pressure (which can be suffocating) when Tourney play starts.

I dont know the stats, but I'd liek to see Billy's record on a neutral court. I bet it's pretty good.

[WESGATORS]

Last year Duke was 10-3 during the regular season in games decided by 7 points or less and 2-0 in 1-point games (one of which came @ #5 ranked North Carolina). They went on to get eliminated in the first round in a 5-point game with Lehigh.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by WESGATORS

I posted this in the other thread, but it's relevant here just the same:

So many are saying "we need a close win" is that just a gut sentiment or is it based on any relevant data?

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS

Sure!

Close games are largely a function of luck. Typically it is a 50/50 shot unless there is a disparity in talent. In that case, it is a function of time, skill, and luck. A team like ours should probably win 'close games' (I'd define that as under 5 points) at probably a 60-65% clip because we are actually better than such teams.

The problem is we are shooting at 0% this year, and over the last 3 seasons at a very small percentage. We are fast approaching the point where we can say with some confidence that statistical variance is not causing these choke jobs, but something else entirely.

What is it? Well that is frankly impossible to pinpoint in a sporting event as there are hundreds of variables, even when talking late in a close game. You can always say something such as "If we made that FT", "If the ref made that call", "They shot above their average", etc, and in many games its quite a few of those quotes and some games some of them may not even apply. So it isn't a matter of improving FT shooting or inbounding the ball (although that would make us a better team as a whole).

What we can conclude, with a degree of confidence, that we are not the same team late in close games. Why? I can't answer that, and maybe only Billy and the players could answer that. Our offense is definitely different, our defense is different, our TO rate increases, our FT percent declines, etc. We are different.

The conclusion is it is a mental issue. There is no reason why we should be worse off in those situations all else being equal. Now all else isn't equal as the game changes somewhat, but we shouldn't go from arguably the best team in the nation to a team that would struggle to beat anyone in a close game.

So if it is a mental issue, what is the best ways to fix it? Practice and doing it for real (aka confidence). Getting over the hump by winning one of these games could potentially be our cure.

[jmoliver]

Originally Posted by gator2109

Do you happen to have stats for some of the other top coaches on this as well?

yea its in a Gainesville Sun Blog.

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by gator2109

The 08 UF football team was 0-1 in games decided by 10 points or less.

I don't buy any of this close game talk and having to win one before the tournament starts. If Boynton makes that last second shot last night somehow we are a completely different team and poised to make a run for the nets in Atlanta, but since he missed we should not expect a final four run?

We lost two games this year that fit this mold of close games. Both of them were away from home in two of the toughest environments NCAA basketball has to offer as the #5 team in the polls so the crowd was jacked. Yes, it sucks going back to last year that we have not come out on top in games like this but I'm not too concerned with it being a huge factor in March.

The SEC Tournament will tell me more about this team than a close road loss will.

You are right it means nothing, in 99% of cases. Close game results are driven by luck and skill differential. The bball and football championship teams were no exception. They fell right in line with how teams are expected to do in such situations. They were not the exception to the rule.

2011-2013 UF bball is the exception. We are performing well below what we should perform in such situations, even with the expected statistical variance due to luck.

[iam4uf]

The inside game in basketball is like the power running game in football. UF needs a go-to inside presence. While Patric Young does many good things, especially defensively (and this year with more hustle plays), we can't count on him for a basket - he's around 52% career shooting if you take away his dunks.