UK vs UF game talk

[gatorbogey]

eventually things will start to click for UK. like it does each year. sometimes it occurs sooner than typical. but UK has been improving steadily. and they have so much talent, it is scary. it just isn't mature yet.

i think Cal likes to be the one lying in the weeds. he seems to like to over-inflate the opposition, even if it isn't sincere half the time. it's part of the coachspeak that i feel he does just because he thinks he's suppose to. flatter the opposition, you know, to maybe get them a little over-confident.

he probably thinks he should win by 20+ if he can just get this group of players to just start playing like a cohesive team.

[NorthCaptivaGator]

Originally Posted by dailydoublecat

As I sit here with my Gator buddy lets get this discussion of this BIG SEC game started. Lets look at the starters.

Wilbekin vs Harrow-edge to UF--he is your straw that stirs the drink as Pitino would say. He has made leaps and bounds in his progression. Harrow is on again/off again type. We need him to be elite, but he is just marginal.

Boynton vs Goodwin--big edge UF -Kenny struggled a bit tonight, but after some early struggles has had a great year. He is my favorite Gator. Goodwin is my least favorite Wildcat, but he is actually passing now so that is a bonus. He is still shooting less than 20% from 3, and is piss poor on the foul line. He can make some circus shots.

Rosario vs Mays- pretty big edge UF- Rosario has grown up in a big way with Florida. He was once a careless player but he has developed nicely. He is a great shooter, but can take it to the rack. Mays is a decent player, but nothing special. I worry about Rosario blowing right past him as he is only so-so athletic.

Murphy vs Poythress- edge UF---Murphy (who I hope is near 100% at game time) is a nightmare to defend. He has always had a great outside shot, but now is developing a post game. Alex is a enigma as I dont know why the light hasnt come on as he has the talent to be something special. Who know he could have 20 or he could have 2 on Tuesday.

Young vs Noel- slight edge UK-- Young needs to get the ball more as I think most will agree. He has continued to improve but needs to get a few more touches. Noel is something else on the defensive end and I have watched him get better and better. This will be a nice matchup. Will Young manhandle Noel? Will Noel make the Gators think about coming inside?

Prediction- UF 76 UK 62.
I have tickets to the game with my Gator buddy and I have run this game in the my head many, many times and I just dont see how Kentucky can win as much as it hurts me to type. I HATE this UK team as they are tough to watch, but we are getting better. I really believe that if Florida plays C+ ball or better they win. Here is to a GREAT game, in a GREAT atmosphere with no injuries. Look forward to it and may the respectful trash talk begin!!!

Jeff

Great analysis Jeff,
But then we bring in Frasier and Prather off the bench and Kentucky has nothing to match up with that. I have seen Kentucky play quite a few times this year and I think our defense will give you fits. You have no inside game and we defend the arc very well, UK length and athleticism has killed us in prior years but I think we actually have the edge this year for the first time in a long time. I am guessing that Rosario has a career night, I just feel like he is ready to explode and Prather played pretty well versus UK in the SEC tourney last year. Here's hoping Young finally gets a chance to play without some little dude dragging him to the floor every time he gets the ball and he makes the Noell eat elbows a couple of times. Young played pretty well against Davis last year and he tends to really show up against UK. I'm excited for this team. Beating UK would give them a boost of confidence even though UK's down. Kind of like beating Tennessee at Tennessee would do.

[NorthCaptivaGator]

Originally Posted by rounds

Katz looked killer AT Old Miss. Was that an aberration?

They were up 16 in the second-half and got the lead cut to one. They pulled it out but were hardly spectacular.

[Gatorphilly]

I think the Gators win in Gainesville, but I'm not sure about at Rupp. I just hope Yeguette is back for the SEC tourney, so he can get a few games in before the ncaa tourney begins.

[REM08]

Originally Posted by NorthCaptivaGator

Great analysis Jeff,
But then we bring in Frasier and Prather off the bench and Kentucky has nothing to match up with that. I have seen Kentucky play quite a few times this year and I think our defense will give you fits. You have no inside game and we defend the arc very well, UK length and athleticism has killed us in prior years but I think we actually have the edge this year for the first time in a long time. I am guessing that Rosario has a career night, I just feel like he is ready to explode and Prather played pretty well versus UK in the SEC tourney last year. Here's hoping Young finally gets a chance to play without some little dude dragging him to the floor every time he gets the ball and he makes the Noell eat elbows a couple of times. Young played pretty well against Davis last year and he tends to really show up against UK. I'm excited for this team. Beating UK would give them a boost of confidence even though UK's down. Kind of like beating Tennessee at Tennessee would do.

I'll agree with you Florida has the edge this time - just not in length and athleticism. UK brings more size off the bench (Wiltjer/WCS) and UF the two you mention. Without Yeguette, this is probably the most even bench-wise the teams have been since 2010.

[dailydoublecat]

Originally Posted by kellgator

Does UK play any zone? And if so, is it effective? I haven't noticed, but I imagine they would in this game to keep Noel closer to the basket. Otherwise he will spend the entire night 25 feet from the basket defending the high screen action. My prediction is that if UK can play an effective zone then this game is close and could go either way. If they can't play zone then I think we win by 10 or more.

Calipari despises zone as I do as well. If we are 100% in trouble than we will play zone, but I think he'd rather lose than play zone. We are so lethargic on defense zone would make it worse plus you have too many great shooters.
Jeff

[dailydoublecat]

Originally Posted by Gatorphilly

I think the Gators win in Gainesville, but I'm not sure about at Rupp. I just hope Yeguette is back for the SEC tourney, so he can get a few games in before the ncaa tourney begins.

I hope you get him back as well!! The one positive is my Cats should play loose as we have nothing to lose!! Vitale calling the game hell yes!!
Jeff

[HALLGATOR]

I wish this game was on the weekend instead of during the week. Still expect a sold out O-Dome but this is just a prime weekend matchup to me.

[NorthCaptivaGator]

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

I wish this game was on the weekend instead of during the week. Still expect a sold out O-Dome but this is just a prime weekend matchup to me.

i Agree, Hall, it sucks, I have a meeting until 9 o'clock Tuesday night but the DVR will be set and I'm going on Internet silence until I get home to watch this game,. Sucks that our game at UK will be on a weekend, on senior night, in primetime but money drives the bus.

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Originally Posted by dailydoublecat

As I sit here with my Gator buddy lets get this discussion of this BIG SEC game started. Lets look at the starters.

Wilbekin vs Harrow-edge to UF--he is your straw that stirs the drink as Pitino would say. He has made leaps and bounds in his progression. Harrow is on again/off again type. We need him to be elite, but he is just marginal.

Boynton vs Goodwin--big edge UF -Kenny struggled a bit tonight, but after some early struggles has had a great year. He is my favorite Gator. Goodwin is my least favorite Wildcat, but he is actually passing now so that is a bonus. He is still shooting less than 20% from 3, and is piss poor on the foul line. He can make some circus shots.

Rosario vs Mays- pretty big edge UF- Rosario has grown up in a big way with Florida. He was once a careless player but he has developed nicely. He is a great shooter, but can take it to the rack. Mays is a decent player, but nothing special. I worry about Rosario blowing right past him as he is only so-so athletic.

Murphy vs Poythress- edge UF---Murphy (who I hope is near 100% at game time) is a nightmare to defend. He has always had a great outside shot, but now is developing a post game. Alex is a enigma as I dont know why the light hasnt come on as he has the talent to be something special. Who know he could have 20 or he could have 2 on Tuesday.

Young vs Noel- slight edge UK-- Young needs to get the ball more as I think most will agree. He has continued to improve but needs to get a few more touches. Noel is something else on the defensive end and I have watched him get better and better. This will be a nice matchup. Will Young manhandle Noel? Will Noel make the Gators think about coming inside?

Prediction- UF 76 UK 62.
I have tickets to the game with my Gator buddy and I have run this game in the my head many, many times and I just dont see how Kentucky can win as much as it hurts me to type. I HATE this UK team as they are tough to watch, but we are getting better. I really believe that if Florida plays C+ ball or better they win. Here is to a GREAT game, in a GREAT atmosphere with no injuries. Look forward to it and may the respectful trash talk begin!!!

Jeff

Jeff, you are sandbagging us. UK has a big advantage at the center.

[BengermanV]

I'm not sure the home game will be close (it very well may be, but I know Billy will have our guys ready to play in the biggest game of the year), but I've predicted all season long we fall at Rupp. We haven't been great away from the O'Dome this year, and Rupp is probably one of the most difficult places to play in all of college hoops. Not to mention, the UK team will have had more time to mature and gel, and the Gators have already reached that point.

I say we pull out to a big early lead, and then UK will pull back within 5 or 10 and makes the game really interesting going down to the wire before we start to pull away a little bit.

71-62 UF wins

[InstiGATOR1]

In this game I worry about size.

1. I worry that Cauley is 7' tall and Noel and Wiltjer are 6'10" tall compared to UF having only Young and Murphy and the next guy off the bench is Prather at 6'6" tall.

2. I worry that Goodwin is 6'5" tall and UF does not have big guards to defend him.

I expect UF to win, but t size is my worry in this game.

[gatorbogey]

looking at 'talent' - you still have to give the advantage to UK in that regard. of course, UF has some 'developed talent' - especially w/ Wilbekin. Murphy can probably match up well in skills, but not in athleticism.

UK pretty much can play w/ 5-star talent at almost every position....gives them a big advantage. let's not lose sight in that.

at the 5: UK has 5* #1 rated center Noel or 4* #15 rated Center Cauley, Gators have 5* #5 rated PF Young .... big advantage to UK
at the 4: UK has 5* #3 rated SF Poythress or 5* #3 rated C Wiltjer or Cauley, Gators have 4* #12 rated PF Murphy .... advantage UK
at the 3: UK has Poythress or 3* unranked SG Mays (via NCSU & Wright St), Gators have 4* #9 rated SG Rosario or 4* #11 ranked SF Prather .... advantage UF
at the 2: UK has 5* #3 rated SG Goodwin, Gators have 5* #4 rated SG Boynton ... even
at the 1: UK has 5* #8 rated PG (from NCSU) Harrow, Gators counter with 2* unranked Wilbekin ... big advantage UK

[jmoliver]

I still think it is a split with the home team winning. The big key is the gators getting any production from Young. Yesterday he was a non-factor. The guy just hasn't improved.

[rtgator]

Originally Posted by gatorbogey

looking at 'talent' - you still have to give the advantage to UK in that regard. of course, UF has some 'developed talent' - especially w/ Wilbekin. Murphy can probably match up well in skills, but not in athleticism.

UK pretty much can play w/ 5-star talent at almost every position....gives them a big advantage. let's not lose sight in that.

at the 5: UK has 5* #1 rated center Noel or 4* #15 rated Center Cauley, Gators have 5* #5 rated PF Young .... big advantage to UK
at the 4: UK has 5* #3 rated SF Poythress or 5* #3 rated C Wiltjer or Cauley, Gators have 4* #12 rated PF Murphy .... advantage UK
at the 3: UK has Poythress or 3* unranked SG Mays (via NCSU & Wright St), Gators have 4* #9 rated SG Rosario or 4* #11 ranked SF Prather .... advantage UF
at the 2: UK has 5* #3 rated SG Goodwin, Gators have 5* #4 rated SG Boynton ... even
at the 1: UK has 5* #8 rated PG (from NCSU) Harrow, Gators counter with 2* unranked Wilbekin ... big advantage UK

These are all HS rankings. Experience and chemistry give Gators the edge.

[gatorbogey]

Originally Posted by rtgator

These are all HS rankings. Experience and chemistry give Gators the edge.

i know. trying to counter the sandbagging mojo of Cal and some of the wildcat fans. w/ the 5-star talent on UK they are a LOCK, i tell ya, to hoist the crystal again and gator fans who think otherwise are merely being foolishly homeristic

[REM08]

Originally Posted by gatorbogey

looking at 'talent' - you still have to give the advantage to UK in that regard. of course, UF has some 'developed talent' - especially w/ Wilbekin. Murphy can probably match up well in skills, but not in athleticism.

UK pretty much can play w/ 5-star talent at almost every position....gives them a big advantage. let's not lose sight in that.

at the 5: UK has 5* #1 rated center Noel or 4* #15 rated Center Cauley, Gators have 5* #5 rated PF Young .... big advantage to UK
at the 4: UK has 5* #3 rated SF Poythress or 5* #3 rated C Wiltjer or Cauley, Gators have 4* #12 rated PF Murphy .... advantage UK
at the 3: UK has Poythress or 3* unranked SG Mays (via NCSU & Wright St), Gators have 4* #9 rated SG Rosario or 4* #11 ranked SF Prather .... advantage UF
at the 2: UK has 5* #3 rated SG Goodwin, Gators have 5* #4 rated SG Boynton ... even
at the 1: UK has 5* #8 rated PG (from NCSU) Harrow, Gators counter with 2* unranked Wilbekin ... big advantage UK

As of right now, UK has some 5 star players who aren't playing like 5 star players yet. Harrow, Goodwin and especially Poythress. All three got outplayed yesterday by former walk-on unranked Jarod Polson. IMO stars only show a players perceived ceiling and not how well they should be contributing right away.

[bullish]

DDCat, I appreciate you pumping our team. Kentucky will bring their A game to Gainseville as always and the Gators better be ready. It will require the Gators to run their offense to perfection with a high percentage 3pt shots. This is mandatory due to us having a weak inside game. Of course I hope the Gators play their best due to this not being Miss St. w/6 scholly players. Our chemistry and defense will help but we have to have a good shooting night. To add to the suspense, the pressure is on the Gators, if we don't beat the Kats at home, it will probably be another sweep. If this happens we will lose confidence and road victories will be a pipe dream. If we win we know we can get it done when needed. No Pressure.

Florida 67 Kentucky 65

Gators get it done but barely. Good luck to the Kats, but Kill the Kats in the Dome GATORS!

[60sDCGator]

I would feel a little better about this game if Young had a presence inside offensively. Noel will make it very tough for us to do much if anything inside, so we better be shooting the ball well from the outside to loosen things up a bit. He had 12 blocked shots against two very good inside players at Ole Miss and we are basically down to just one. We looked great last night, but Miss. State is awful, so don't let that game fool anyone.

We were a little thin inside heading into the season, so obviously the loss of Yeguete is huge right now and we really do not have anyone else left. That being said, I believe in Billy and he will find a way to adjust his offense using 3 or 4 guards at times and rotating Young & Murphy, but Yeguete's length, rebounding ability and non stop motor are going to very hard to replace against good teams, much like what happened last year when was injured. This UK team is obviously not nearly as good as last years squad, but they are getting better & better and we are not as good without Yeguete, so watch out. If Frazier continues to play & shoot well and rebound and Prather continues to improve and get 100% healthy and we don't have another freakish night where the whole team had an off night, we have a chance to hold on until we can get Yeguete back. I guess you can see how important I believe Yeguete is to this team. I do believe we will win at home, but it could be very difficult to beat UK at Rupp by the time that game rolls around, but we'll see.

By the way, isn't college basketball, especially this year in the SEC a strange animal. We got blown out by a very average Arkansas team at their place and then they travel to play another average at best Vandy team and get beat by 18. Arkansas earlier this year got beat by 21 at South Carolina and then we hammered South Carolina at home the very next game. The fact that so many average teams every year are almost unbeatable at home has always been strange to me. I think it sometimes has a lot more to do with the the refs than the venue in my opinion.

[InstiGATOR1]

Originally Posted by gatorbogey

looking at 'talent' - you still have to give the advantage to UK in that regard. of course, UF has some 'developed talent' - especially w/ Wilbekin. Murphy can probably match up well in skills, but not in athleticism.

UK pretty much can play w/ 5-star talent at almost every position....gives them a big advantage. let's not lose sight in that.

at the 5: UK has 5* #1 rated center Noel or 4* #15 rated Center Cauley, Gators have 5* #5 rated PF Young .... big advantage to UK
at the 4: UK has 5* #3 rated SF Poythress or 5* #3 rated C Wiltjer or Cauley, Gators have 4* #12 rated PF Murphy .... advantage UK
at the 3: UK has Poythress or 3* unranked SG Mays (via NCSU & Wright St), Gators have 4* #9 rated SG Rosario or 4* #11 ranked SF Prather .... advantage UF
at the 2: UK has 5* #3 rated SG Goodwin, Gators have 5* #4 rated SG Boynton ... even
at the 1: UK has 5* #8 rated PG (from NCSU) Harrow, Gators counter with 2* unranked Wilbekin ... big advantage UK

What you claim you are going to look at talent and then you post a bunch of junk about stars???????? Among the fallacies you are in jail to with this are:

1. Even if the recruiting gurus knew enough to rank a single year with 100% accuracy, they do not even in the least claim that those ranking are comparable over different class years. That is nobody knows if the number 10 guy from 2012 is better or worse than the number 15 guy from 2011.

2. You are throwing away information. You apparently chose to get ranks from some particular site. There is a site that takes rankings from 4 or 5 recruiting services and puts out a composite index. If you do not go to RSCI to get your rankings you are being arbitrary and capricious and throwing away information you are claiming is important.

3. Talent is ability level and ceiling, not some stars or ranking number. So you in fact did not mention talent at all in your post.

4. As a UF fan, you certainly should realize that Wilbekin did not go through the recruiting service evaluation process so claiming that he was "2* and unranked" is additional foolishness. Had they known he was signing the year he did, the recruiting services would have evaluated him and put an actual number of stars and a rank next to his name. If you are going to use their numbers like they are Gospel, you should recognize that Wilbekin's numbers were place holders for a kid who was on their radar, but not expected to sign the year he did.

So if you wanted to do this you could look at various basketball talents, some So

1. Shooting talent, you have numbers for this ie shooting percentages.
2. Facilitating talent, you have numbers for this too, ie assist and turnovers though not "hockey" assists.
3. Athletic talent, we do not have much data here but you can see who runs and jumps better.
4. Height and bulk, we have decent data here, but you should cross check what the schools say against the measurement data set on draftexpress.com.
5. Defensive talent, we do not have much data on this either, so you have to go by subjective observation on this one.

So if you were to do this, then Wilbekin is a more talented shooter, a better facilitator, appears to be more athletic, even in size and a better defender than Harrow. That means Wilbekin is a more talented basketball player than Harrow. You see such an analysis has nothing to do with rankings although the rankings guys are implicitly trying to do the same thing.