Originally Posted by surfn1080
Where do you get your info? Just curious as I am looking to expand my portfolio.
I do a lot of reading on seeking alpha. Over time, I have found a few authors and posters who really know their stuff. Here are a few articles to get you started. Posters Jeep (informed, does some good due diligence that he shares), Bill Costello (professional hedge fund manager that specializes in mid cap energy companies and has forgotten more than I will ever know), and Craig Cooper (excellent geologist) are all ones worth listening to when they post. If they ever all agree, buy and buy fast.
first and probably most prolific author
read all 3 parts and as many of his other articles as you can consume to get a good base of information about the industry. good guy.
for a good understanding of the economics behind ND bakkken wells
second author that also has a pay site where many very informed people contribute in the comment section. think you can register and get a free read on occasion. real smart, well connected, but keeps his best, most current info for his paying customers
here is another site I like to read for info
readers digest version for ND shale oil, most oil production has come from middle bakken layer and most drillers are still trying to fine tune their completion methods to get best long term returns. many areas have two, and sometimes three additional benches of shale layers underneath the bakken that they are just starting to explore but that value is not reflected in their stock price. as they prove up the additional resource rock and fine tune their completion techniques, their recoverable reserves are shooting up rather rapidly. once they start doing enhanced recovery techniques, the reserves will jump again. right now, they get anywhere from 5 - 8 percent of the oil out so they are leaving a lot of oil in place, the wells are drilled, the pipelines will be built and when they figure out how to get some of the remaining 95%, it is going to be gravy. as technology progresses and the infrastructure is built out, the cost per barrel to recover will only drop. as the rail takeway capacity to get oil to east and west coast increases (Buffett is making a killing), the price per barrel they get will also increase. many small to mid cap players will be bought out over the coming months/ years as the land is proven up and the bigger players start writing checks. my favorites right now are KOG, TPLM, WLL, BCEI and OAS. First love in the bakken was BEXP and it returned 250% for me over 18 months and when Statoil bought them out. losers included SSN, PETEF, and a couple of others where I took a flyer on companies that were holding cheap leases on the edges of known geology. stupid.....live and learn.
refiners that are set up to use a mix of cheap canadian crude and relatively inexpensive ND sweet are doing great. I bought NTI and CVRR shortly after IPO's and MPC a few months back. As long as the brent/wti spread remains good (+15) these guys are going to be cash cows. Wish I would have bought some Valero VLR but the resources are limited and I am heavy on a couple of oilers that I think will be bought out within the next 6 months. Nothing like waking up to a 30% - 50% premium offer on a major holding.
pipeline mlp's are great too. WMB is where I have most of my mom's limited money. safer with steady returns
for spec plays, offshore west africa is going to make a lot of people very rich, did good with CIE (tip from friend and cashed out when it jumped) and EGY also has substantial interests in some areas that will be high yielders if/when they get the bit in the ground there. HK is a company being put togeher by Floyd Wilson. Floyd has built up and sold 2 other oil companies and made a fortune doing it. Hard to argue with his track record but I am not in it right now. ( limited resources)
other intersting company is LNG. They will be first to export nat gas from US but I got in and got out and am sticking to refiners and producers. SD is an oiler that has great assets with incredible IRR's but is headed by a crook that runs company like personal piggy bank. Getting heavy pressure from a private equity firm that should have him and the board out in a few months and then the company pps should ramp up fairly quickly.
all jmho, do your own dd and place your bets accordingly.
another great presentation that might help you see bigger picture on domestic oil