Duke will not win the National Championship...

[ArtVandelay]

Every year they put together stats regarding the profile of teams that have a shot at the National Championship. One of the big stats is that a National Championship team has never lost a game by 25 points or more during the season.

I understand that Duke was missing Kelly, but it sounds like this was a major @$$-whooping. Crazy to think that before last night, this team probably had the best resume of any team in college hoops.

Are there any fun stats that are out there regarding teams that win a National Championship (ex. no team ranked lower than X on offense or defense)

[Ahab]

http://www.statfox.com/statfoxnews/n...cleid~8263.htm

http://www.burntorangenation.com/bas...ball-analytics

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...4-and-champion

[madgator]

every team losses a few games every year. to definitively say that this Duke team will not win a title based on last nights performance is nonsensical over-reaction.

of course the odds are in your favor that they won't win. however, they are in the short list of teams that will most likely be there at the end.


Personally, I've loved Kansas since week 1.

[Jaggator]

I read that Florida has the best odds of winning it all.

[g8rboy]

you only say that cause it has never happened

[OrmondGator]

If Kelly doesn't come back in time to be effective in March, Duke won't be a contender.

Not because he's so great individually, but because Mason Plumlee is so bad. Without Kelly the interior defense suffers and offensively, they have NO inside/out game. Which means all they can do is jack up 3's. Cold night shooting against a decent team or mediocre night shooting against a good team = tourney exit.

[ArtVandelay]

Originally Posted by Ahab

http://www.statfox.com/statfoxnews/n...cleid~8263.htm

http://www.burntorangenation.com/bas...ball-analytics

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...4-and-champion

The CBS link is pretty cool. That's what I was looking for.

[ArtVandelay]

Originally Posted by g8rboy

you only say that cause it has never happened

yes...generally i go with things that have never happened to not happen...

[Go2gtr]

Our second NC team lost 5 games and went 13-3 in conference.

We lost three games in one four-game stretch: Vandy (L), SCAR (W), LSU (L), TENN (L).

We also lost to FSU and Kansas.

Our first NC team lost six games, all in conference. We lost to SCAR and TENN twice.

[Jaggator]

The website teamrankings.com, which has the motto “Get Smart About Sports,” gives the Florida Gators the best chance to win the NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship.

As of Wednesday, the site says Florida has a 20.8 percent chance of winning the national championship. That’s higher than any other team in the country with Indiana at 15.8 percent as the team with the second highest chance of winning it all.

The site is updated daily and claims to run simulations for the entire basketball season “several times daily.”


http://www.gatorcountry.com/basketba...al_title/16451

[bgator85]

It has gone up today to 21.6%.

[Jonas]

If they get as easy of a draw as they did in 2010, they definitely could.

[REM08]

Think you guys are missing the point. He really just picked a clever way of pointed out that if Duke does win the title, they'll be the first team ever with a loss that bad on their resume. I remember people saying the same thing about North Carolina after their bad loss last year. That proved correct.

[DrewLaing]

Not a huge believer in Duke this year. Think they are prone to losses against inferior teams more so than most top teams (i.e. Miami).

[themistocles]

Originally Posted by ArtVandelay

The CBS link is pretty cool. That's what I was looking for.

The CBS fellow cannot do what he did.

This method is much like the Bible Code method. It is sure to always generate a seemingly high probability, because first you determine what characteristics qualify Winners and Losers, and then you generate probabilities based on your selections.

As a professional statistician and a former professional gambler, I can tell you for ABSOLUTELY SURE, that probability does not work this way.

Also, his simplistic probabilities in the initial statements "One in a Quintillion" are a fallacious way to do something like this, because as he so clearly notes, the Dance is set up to benefit the higher seeds, thus their probabilities must be weighted in any form of analysis.

By the way, did you know that coaches who's kids have polydactyl cats have a far less chance of going to the final four than coaches who's kids either have no cats, or at least cats with 5 claws on each paw.

That is the sort of analysis he just conducted.

[corpgator]

Originally Posted by Go2gtr

Our second NC team lost 5 games and went 13-3 in conference.

We lost three games in one four-game stretch: Vandy (L), SCAR (W), LSU (L), TENN (L).

We also lost to FSU and Kansas.

Our first NC team lost six games, all in conference. We lost to SCAR and TENN twice.

All close losses and many on the road or at "neutral" sites. Duke was whipped by over 30. Margin of victory matters when evaluating team quality.

[oragator1]

Duke has also only played two true road games all year and lost both.

[REM08]

Originally Posted by oragator1

Duke has also only played two true road games all year and lost both.

I hate Duke as much as anyone, but I think the road game talk is a little overrated. Neutral site matters much more IMO. Ideally its better for teams to be tough enough to win on the road. I'm just not sure how indicative it is for March success.

[themistocles]

Actually, after looking at all three of those sites, the only one that makes much sense from an analytical perspective is the middle one.

Of course, the biggest problem with any such "statistical" comparisons is that no two teams play the same schedule, although in 14 team conferences, like the SEC, there are a fair number of shared games. As a result, they are not actually comparable - for example, is #1 better than #2, well, maybe, but you need to know a lot more than that to make any reasonable judgments.

[oragator1]

Originally Posted by REM08

I hate Duke as much as anyone, but I think the road game talk is a little overrated. Neutral site matters much more IMO. Ideally its better for teams to be tough enough to win on the road. I'm just not sure how indicative it is for March success.

My point wasn't that road games are an end all be all, only that their schedule hasn't had as many road challenges as other top teams, further making the point they aren't as good as advertised.