NCAA Quality And Talent Are Down... Right?

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by GatorLurker

I think that this year's team is WAY better than last year's Vandy team. ;^)

But are they better than the 07 Vandy team that kicked the 07 Gators' butts?

[REM08]

Originally Posted by GatorRade

It is an interesting question to me, because this year's Gator squad's KenPom Pythag rating is actually higher than either the 12' UK team or 07' UF team. (It's actually the highest rating KenPom has recorded at this moment)

This year's Gator team doesn't have any super stars (like Noah or Davis) or near the national hype, but I wonder how much these matter? All these squads are relatively balanced on offense, have elite three point shooters, and enforcers under the basket. This Gator team is actually a bit deeper than either of the other two teams (they run 8 deep; whereas the other two ran 7 deep).

So would last year's UK team really beat this year's gator team 8-9 times out of 10? Or might this be in our intuition for the wrong reasons? I'm not sure, but I don't think it is as open and shut as you do.

I'm in a weird position here because it seems like I'm slighting this years Florida team (who I think is one of the top 5 in the nation). I"m not though.

I just need to see this years Florida team have the kind of wins last years UK team did. I'm not sure this is even possible given how down the best teams are this year compared to last.

Last year's UK team won three games against teams that I think are better than any team in the nation this year (Kansas twice and UNC). They also beat Louisville twice and Indiana in the elite eight - both of whom return this year as two of the best teams in the nation and are pretty much unchanged from last year (not entirely though). I don't think this years Florida team plays a team, in the regular season at least, as good as any of the wins I just mentioned. Arizona was the closest and it was a loss - and I don't think Arizona is that great (neither do many of you). What is UF's best win this year? Dismantling Mizzou while they were minus their leading scorer? I'm not trying to diminish this win (UK wouldn't have won that game and you guys killed them) - I'm just trying to compare it with last year's UK wins. I'm also not trying to say who is a better team based on resume, because thats not fair. Just pointing out that I'd want to see how good of a team this years UF team could beat before I start comparign them with a team most/many in the media list among the best few teams of the past decade (even 25 years in some rankings).

[REM08]

Thinking more on it, I think this years UF team compares much more to Tubby's UK team in 03 - which swept the SEC and was the number 1 overall seed. GREAT team with GREAT team play - incredible to watch for both teams.

But I think, if you look at the very best teams of the past 20 years or so, there's a definite correlation between the teams on this list and future NBA players (I'm guessing almost always higher draft picks) and the teams greatness. This matters for the players who see the most playing time. I think Frazier is a future NBA player - no doubt, but wouldn't count him quite to the same degree considering his current 15 minutes per game.

I don't mean ANY slight by comparing this years team to the '03 UK team, I think its actually more of a complement.


I love kenpom's stats, but don't value them when it comes to comparing different years. They're internally valid and useful for comparing teams in the same year. Every stat is relative to the other teams playing that year.

Another possible source of evidence for talent being down this year is the fact that most every NBA draft person out there has named this years draft as being one of the weakest of all time. I've heard two different "experts" mention that if they NBA actually cared about their product, they'd cancel the draft this year because of there not being a single NBA ready player.

[dalwood13]

Originally Posted by REM08

I'm in a weird position here because it seems like I'm slighting this years Florida team (who I think is one of the top 5 in the nation). I"m not though.

I just need to see this years Florida team have the kind of wins last years UK team did. I'm not sure this is even possible given how down the best teams are this year compared to last.

Last year's UK team won three games against teams that I think are better than any team in the nation this year (Kansas twice and UNC). They also beat Louisville twice and Indiana in the elite eight - both of whom return this year as two of the best teams in the nation and are pretty much unchanged from last year (not entirely though). I don't think this years Florida team plays a team, in the regular season at least, as good as any of the wins I just mentioned. Arizona was the closest and it was a loss - and I don't think Arizona is that great (neither do many of you). What is UF's best win this year? Dismantling Mizzou while they were minus their leading scorer? I'm not trying to diminish this win (UK wouldn't have won that game and you guys killed them) - I'm just trying to compare it with last year's UK wins. I'm also not trying to say who is a better team based on resume, because thats not fair. Just pointing out that I'd want to see how good of a team this years UF team could beat before I start comparign them with a team most/many in the media list among the best few teams of the past decade (even 25 years in some rankings).

Last year's Kentucky team was special, no doubt, but I think you are overselling Kansas, North Carolina, etc. This year's Gator team, in my opinion would handle anyone except Kentucky from 2012 and they could matchup with UK decently.

The 2013 Gators win the PG matchup in my opinion. Boynton is a better defender and more pure scorer than Doron Lamb. The SF matchup is much closer this year than last year when we had to stick Beal on MKG. We could run Prather and Yeguete on him or play Wilbekin on him when we want Rosario on the floor in a 3 guard lineup. I think this year's version of Erik Murphy is better than Terrence Jones and although Davis obviously outshines Young, Pat is playing at a different level this year.

2013 UF and 2012 UK are both special defensively and unselfish offensively. I think it would be a great matchup.

The 2007 Gators would dominate any team in recent history.

[FranceGator]

It has seemed recently that offensive and defensive efficiency are the metrics of the month. Perhaps I'm only noticing because we are recently awesome at both.

I wonder how the numbers over time would look for efficiency. I worry that the general tone that the article was railing against (the idea that high scores == good) is the culprit. Can't the mass market appreciate good defense? Probably not.

I've gotten really intrigued at trying to learn defensive basketball, as a fan that never played. It's been fun this year.

[GatorRade]

I know what you are saying, REM. No disrespect taken. I loved that 03 UK team. Good comparison. They had a very good KenPom rating as well.

Indeed, elite college basketball teams are usually populated with future NBA stars, but is this a requisite? I am thinking of Christian Laettner, Tyler Hansborough (though he still might be an NBA star), Jodie Meeks, Tim Tebow, Charlie Ward (in football), Lee Humphrey/Taurean Green, etc. Just because it is rare to be dominant without future NBA stars doesn't mean that they are necessity.

It is in the middle of the season, so who knows what will become the legend of this Gator team, but I do think that they have the chance to place themselves high in SEC lore.

[REM08]

Originally Posted by dalwood13

Last year's Kentucky team was special, no doubt, but I think you are overselling Kansas, North Carolina, etc. This year's Gator team, in my opinion would handle anyone except Kentucky from 2012 and they could matchup with UK decently.

The 2013 Gators win the PG matchup in my opinion. Boynton is a better defender and more pure scorer than Doron Lamb. The SF matchup is much closer this year than last year when we had to stick Beal on MKG. We could run Prather and Yeguete on him or play Wilbekin on him when we want Rosario on the floor in a 3 guard lineup. I think this year's version of Erik Murphy is better than Terrence Jones and although Davis obviously outshines Young, Pat is playing at a different level this year.

2013 UF and 2012 UK are both special defensively and unselfish offensively. I think it would be a great matchup.

The 2007 Gators would dominate any team in recent history.

I don't know, I just don't agree.

I think Teague ended up being a better PG than Scotty, maybe this is slight. I don't care enough I'd even give in and say a draw. Boynton is not Doran Lamb. He's smaller, I'll give him the edge defensively but honestly not by much. He's also not nearly the scorer Lamb was (much more prolific though, needs to be). Lamb didn't need to score very much and was incredibly efficient. He was an unreal 3pt shooter and his team didn't even require much more than that from him. MKG vs anyone you put against him isn't even close. Jones and Murphy are very different, but I'm going Jones over Murphy as well. Murphy is a better 3pt shooter - thats it. Worse defensively, worse in transition, had trouble staying in front of Jones (Yeguette was better). Davis and Young (Young played great against Davis last year) also not very close. Davis might be the best UK big man ever. Young isn't in Florida's top 2 in the past decade.

UF wins in bench, hands down. If injuries or foul trouble enter the picture, its an advantage for Florida without question.

I'll agree with you it'd be a FUN match up. I actually think it'd look similar to our matchups with Louisville last year. Deep team that could press and mixed zone and man often.

I just don't think we've seen this year's UF team face the same kind of tests that UK did. Maybe you guys are better at extrapolating how good this years team is hypothetically.

[REM08]

Originally Posted by GatorRade

I know what you are saying, REM. No disrespect taken. I loved that 03 UK team. Good comparison. They had a very good KenPom rating as well.

Indeed, elite college basketball teams are usually populated with future NBA stars, but is this a requisite? I am thinking of Christian Laettner, Tyler Hansborough (though he still might be an NBA star), Jodie Meeks, Tim Tebow, Charlie Ward (in football), Lee Humphrey/Taurean Green, etc. Just because it is rare to be dominant without future NBA stars doesn't mean that they are necessity.

It is in the middle of the season, so who knows what will become the legend of this Gator team, but I do think that they have the chance to place themselves high in SEC lore.

Thats the great part about it is that we'll get to see. I agree they could be special and I love watching them.

The players you listed are good examples of great college players (mostly at least) that didn't dominate the pros. But I wouldn't say thats the same as teams. Tebow played with guys that are doing gerat in teh pros and were drafted high. Same for Humphrey and Green. Its hard to say that pro potential matters period, but I think there's a strong correlation, thats all.

Just going on memory (which isn't great) it seems to me that the best teams I think think of in this era usually had 3 lottery picks getting major minutes. Would say this of the fab 5 (probably), 96 and 12 UK, 06 and 07 UF, there was a good UNC team or two also just can't remember the years.

This years Florida team (credit Billy D - and players buying in) are very good players playing great team basketball. But IMO, the best teams ever have great players and play great team ball.

Reasonable minds can differ. I'm not trying to suggest I'm right and anyone is wrong. Fun to talk about if nothing else. Its why I like NBN.

[dalwood13]

Originally Posted by REM08

I don't know, I just don't agree.

I think Teague ended up being a better PG than Scotty, maybe this is slight. I don't care enough I'd even give in and say a draw. Boynton is not Doran Lamb. He's smaller, I'll give him the edge defensively but honestly not by much. He's also not nearly the scorer Lamb was (much more prolific though, needs to be). Lamb didn't need to score very much and was incredibly efficient. He was an unreal 3pt shooter and his team didn't even require much more than that from him. MKG vs anyone you put against him isn't even close. Jones and Murphy are very different, but I'm going Jones over Murphy as well. Murphy is a better 3pt shooter - thats it. Worse defensively, worse in transition, had trouble staying in front of Jones (Yeguette was better). Davis and Young (Young played great against Davis last year) also not very close. Davis might be the best UK big man ever. Young isn't in Florida's top 2 in the past decade.

UF wins in bench, hands down. If injuries or foul trouble enter the picture, its an advantage for Florida without question.

I'll agree with you it'd be a FUN match up. I actually think it'd look similar to our matchups with Louisville last year. Deep team that could press and mixed zone and man often.

I just don't think we've seen this year's UF team face the same kind of tests that UK did. Maybe you guys are better at extrapolating how good this years team is hypothetically.

Florida definitely has not been tested the same way Kentucky was tested last year, no argument there. I just really like the makeup of this team and don't think they would be overmatched against anyone. I don't think you can compare what these guys did against UK last year to what they bring to the table this year. Not only have all these guys improved individually but the development of the team defensive and pressing abilities is incredible. I'm not saying the 2013 Gators would beat the 2012 Wildcats more times than not, but I think it would be a good matchup and that this team would give them a better contest than any team from last year could have.

I also think there will be several NBA players on this roster. Young, Murphy, Yeguete, Wilbekin, and Prather will all have the opportunity to play in the league. I think Boynton and Rosario may also get looks. None of these guys will be high lottery picks but that does not equate to being a solid pro. David Lee was the last pick in the 1st round when he was drafted and Demarcus Cousins was a high lottery pick. Who would you rather have on your NBA team?

[jagervol01]

Originally Posted by dalwood13

Last year's Kentucky team was special, no doubt, but I think you are overselling Kansas, North Carolina, etc. This year's Gator team, in my opinion would handle anyone except Kentucky from 2012 and they could matchup with UK decently.

The 2013 Gators win the PG matchup in my opinion. Boynton is a better defender and more pure scorer than Doron Lamb. The SF matchup is much closer this year than last year when we had to stick Beal on MKG. We could run Prather and Yeguete on him or play Wilbekin on him when we want Rosario on the floor in a 3 guard lineup. I think this year's version of Erik Murphy is better than Terrence Jones and although Davis obviously outshines Young, Pat is playing at a different level this year.

2013 UF and 2012 UK are both special defensively and unselfish offensively. I think it would be a great matchup.

The 2007 Gators would dominate any team in recent history.

No offense but the 2007 Gators certainly did not dominate the 2007 Vols.

[Matthanuf06]

It is all relative to competition. IMO it doesn't matter whether this team beats 2012 UK or 2007 UF or any other historical team. The question of best, of dominance, is how you do relative to your actual competition. If Florida continues winning at this pace and dominates the tournament, then they'd be on the short list of greatest teams ever. Will that happen? Well odds are pretty slim. Cross year comparisons is all about how much better was one team vs it's competition vs another year and their competition.

Now truthfully none of it matters. It's all about winning the tournament.

[GatorLurker]

Originally Posted by GatorRade

But are they better than the 07 Vandy team that kicked the 07 Gators' butts?

Yeah.

All I was saying is that Vandy last year beat UK on a neutral floor with a trophy on the line and they weren't given 5 chances to do it.

[REM08]

Originally Posted by jagervol01

No offense but the 2007 Gators certainly did not dominate the 2007 Vols.

Yeah, I missed that line. I think they're among the best recent teams, but to think they'd dominate all others is ridiculous IMO. Most of the rankings media people do, fwiw, certainly don't agree with this notion.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by REM08

I just don't think we've seen this year's UF team face the same kind of tests that UK did. Maybe you guys are better at extrapolating how good this years team is hypothetically.

Yeah, this is the main issue. Extrapolation. Of course 13' Florida doesn't have the resume of 12' Kentucky, but that's not what we are after. So we have to attempt to obtain a measure of power by comparing Kentucky's rather dominating performances over great competition to Florida absolute obliterations of mediocre competition. There are a couple of very imperfect ways of going about such a task:

(1) Build a math model, which is what kenpom's ratings are. I agree that they are imperfect comparing across years (even within a year), but at least it is objective.
(2) Use the eye test/gut intuition. This certainly would favor Kentucky to most impartial observers, but the tendency for bias here is very strong.

To be clear here, I am not saying I have any idea how a 10 game series between these teams would play out, so I don't mean to imply that Florida would "handle" last year's UK. What I do mean to imply, however, is that I don't think we should be too certain that the reverse outcome would occur either.

[ufgator4ever]

The math and stats are all fine, but the SEC competition is really bad this year based on numerous out of conference losses. Based on that, and the fact this team doesn't possess the inside or outside prowess of the 07 team, I don't see where any comparisons are being made.
They are beating bad teams big time. But the problem for this team, much like the last two teams, is what happens in a close game or when you're down by a few? Who takes the shots and nails them? There isn't a Humphrey dagger or Taurean big bucket or even a Horford/Noah blockade in the middle. I think this team is very solid, but as Arizona and Kansas State (and Airforce/Yale to lesser extents) showed they have big vulnerabilities against quality opponents.

The good news is there is still a whole half of SEC play to improve and solve the weaknesses.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by REM08

Yeah, I missed that line. I think they're among the best recent teams, but to think they'd dominate all others is ridiculous IMO. Most of the rankings media people do, fwiw, certainly don't agree with this notion.

Clearly we have to stick to the best of 10 or best of 100 game scenario. Otherwise, we have strange outcomes like the 07 Vols or 12 Commodores being in the discussion. All three teams showed that they are very good, but not unbeatable (really, no teams are unbeatable -even those that went undefeated- so this is a useless fact).

I have actually seen the Gator bball team top lists of best recent NCAA teams. It's tough to compare from one year to next, but totally fruitless to compare across decades, so I don't really have any use for the 12' UK to the 68' UCLA team debate.

Here are the lists I can find of the top teams of the decade.
Yahoo. Florida 07. http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketb...n=ncaab,205653
ESPN. Florida 07. http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=4783700
SI. Florida 07. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ege_basketball
NJ.com. Florida 07 http://www.nj.com/college-basketball...asketball.html
SI. St Joes 04. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...hts/index.html

These were all I could find. But regardless, if we are going to go by the "eye test" method of greatness, Florida 07 is well respected. (Obviously UK 2012 wasn't eligible for any of these lists).

But I have this fear that we tend to overrate memorable teams/players over time, as their legend grows in our minds. For me, I'll always remember the 10 second half dunks against UCLA in 06 (I mean, what kind of final's is that??), but I forget about the middling 4 point victory over Purdue in 07. I feel the same way about Michael Jordan. Yeah, I think he's good, but I think we have made him into more than he was. My gut tells me that LeBron would whip this guy, but that's obviously not the way that people see it in the media.

So I like 07 Florida. I like 12 UK. But I am ready to open up a special place for the 12 Gators, despite that they don't have this memorable appeal.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by ufgator4ever

The math and stats are all fine, but the SEC competition is really bad this year based on numerous out of conference losses. Based on that, and the fact this team doesn't possess the inside or outside prowess of the 07 team, I don't see where any comparisons are being made.

I am making this comparison because this Gator team is absolutely obliterating everything in its path. Perhaps they don't have the "inside prowess" of the 07 team, but where is written that you need that? The 07 Gators probably don't have the outside defensive prowess of the 12 squad.

Originally Posted by ufgator4ever

They are beating bad teams big time. But the problem for this team, much like the last two teams, is what happens in a close game or when you're down by a few? Who takes the shots and nails them? There isn't a Humphrey dagger or Taurean big bucket or even a Horford/Noah blockade in the middle. I think this team is very solid, but as Arizona and Kansas State (and Airforce/Yale to lesser extents) showed they have big vulnerabilities against quality opponents.

In close games, there is a lot of randomness that takes over. Don't forget the wide open 3 that Georgetown missed in 06. And if you are thinking about 12 Arizona and Kansas State, you also need to think about 07 Kansas and Florida State. And Vanderbilt. And LSU. And Tennessee. Three of those games were decided by 10 points or more...and these were not elite foes.

I think the 07 offense was one of the greats, but the 12 offense isn't chopped liver. And the 12 defense might end up one of the greats as well (whereas the 07 teams sort of stopped caring as much on defense, since they were outgunning everyone). Maybe the 07 team was much better, but I'm wouldn't be so certain about it.

[GatorJeff]

Originally Posted by REM08

There are definitely teams that are better this year than they were last year, but by NO means does that mean talent isn't down. The best teams this year aren't comparable to last year.

IMO, last year had two teirs of elite teams. Kentucky and UNC at the top, Ohio State, Kansas and Syracuse in the next teir. All five of these teams are worse this year (including Kansas but they're the closest). Also, all 5 of these teams, if they existed this year, would be the best team in the nation by a decent (or big) margin. Talent is way down. Every year is going to have a lot of teams worse than the year before, and a lot of teams better than the year before. This just doesn't have anything to do with the talent level - two different things.

I agree with the above poster about the final four locations being part of the problem. Isn't that changing from now on? I think I remember that last year was the last mega-crowd, but I'm not sure about that.

I remember the Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium. After watching the semi-finals with those incredibly tight, never used before rims (if a ball touched any part of the rim it was ejected like a rocket) and the absolutely impossible shooting background, I knew if either team shot just 30% from the field that they'd win. How could the NCAA inflict that kind of wound to itself on the biggest stage?

[InstiGATOR1]

Originally Posted by REM08

But I think, if you look at the very best teams of the past 20 years or so, there's a definite correlation between the teams on this list and future NBA players (I'm guessing almost always higher draft picks) and the teams greatness. This matters for the players who see the most playing time. I think Frazier is a future NBA player - no doubt, but wouldn't count him quite to the same degree considering his current 15 minutes per game.

You are missing the correlation between a team making the final four and the increase probability that players on it get drafted. So there is a good possibility that the causality goes both ways. [One group of economists who have written on this conjecture that it is easier for a GM to sell an owner on picking some guy who everyone was just watching in the final four.]

This team has not made the final four yet. If this team were to make the final four, do you really doubt that Young's NBA draft status would not get a nice boost? Do you doubt that Murphy might get a pretty good bump too.

[UFreak]

Originally Posted by InstiGATOR1

You are missing the correlation between a team making the final four and the increase probability that players on it get drafted. So there is a good possibility that the causality goes both ways. [One group of economists who have written on this conjecture that it is easier for a GM to sell an owner on picking some guy who everyone was just watching in the final four.]

This team has not made the final four yet. If this team were to make the final four, do you really doubt that Young's NBA draft status would not get a nice boost? Do you doubt that Murphy might get a pretty good bump too.

And wilbiken's. Time to start including him in the conversation.