Fourth Quarter GDP

[jimgata]

The feds spent more the 4th quarter than the 3rd quarter. That's a fact, check it out.

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by jimgata

The feds spent more the 4th quarter than the 3rd quarter. That's a fact, check it out.

I guess that depends on how you define spending, but according to the BEA:

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 14.8 percent in the fourth quarter

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by mastoidbone

.1 GDP for a qtr is terrible---it means chronic unemployment and exploding poverty---is that the best you got?

.1 GDP is 100% consistent with a recession---as NEGATIVE GDP is not part of recession call--though of course is often associated-a good example is recession call of 2001 where there NEVER was 2 qtrs of consecutive negative GDP....just a slowing of business and output......sound familiar?

Plus there are more revisions to come---let's see.

The latest Chicago PMI was quite a surprise to the up--so we maybe starting to climb out of it.

It is 0.1% after reducing government spending, which you claim to want. It would be far stronger without this decline in the short-run (which is all a single quarter can say).

The two quarters of GDP is a rules of thumb. But has any recession been declared during a period of declining unemployment and increasing GDP, even if the GDP increase isn't huge? While 2001 did not have two consecutive quarters of decline, it did have a decline in 2 out of 3 quarters. In addition, the unemployment rate was increasing that entire year, which has not happened this year.

[jimgata]

Spending for 3rd quarter 809 billion: for 4th quarter 907 billion.

[G8trGr8t]

Originally Posted by gator996

He isn't blaming Bush...the 4th Q GDP was negatively impacted because of the BCA cuts in Govt spending.

Sometimes I wonder if all of the misinformation here is ignorance or a intentionally partisan facade....

While you're bitching about the economic result of cutting govt spending...

What major industrial country would you rather be economically speaking right now?

Canada

[G8trGr8t]

Originally Posted by jimgata

Spending for 3rd quarter 809 billion: for 4th quarter 907 billion.

Big picture doesn't matter. You must parse it down to a minute ambiguos class of spending and then you can find the decrease

[oragator1]

Originally Posted by mastoidbone

.1 GDP for a qtr is terrible---it means chronic unemployment and exploding poverty---is that the best you got?

.1 GDP is 100% consistent with a recession---as NEGATIVE GDP is not part of recession call--though of course is often associated-a good example is recession call of 2001 where there NEVER was 2 qtrs of consecutive negative GDP....just a slowing of business and output......sound familiar?

Plus there are more revisions to come---let's see.

The latest Chicago PMI was quite a surprise to the up--so we maybe starting to climb out of it.

I am sent literally hours worth of reading on the economy every day (some public some internal) as part of my job and for some bizarre reason enjoy reading it all.

We aren't going to be in a recession even with the sequester.
The Feds are planning on staying engaged at least through this year which will preclude it short term, barring some other force (European collapse, another large natural disaster etc). The 4th quarter numbers were skewed by Sandy among other things, most economists are predicting 2-3% growth this year, far from stellar or even what we need, but slow and steady growth.
What's interesting is the debate that is starting to emerge at the Fed about how and when they begin their pullback. They are starting to get pressure from various quarters to do so, and on the political front if they buy much more they may have to show a loss in 5 years or so when they sell the bonds they have been buying, and there isn't much political appetite for that, so they may have come close to reaching their limit on bond buys. When inflation comes back a bit they will either have to sell them to tame it and show the loss, or hold them to not show the loss and have less control over inflation. Here's an article on it, definitely something to watch:

http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/22/news...ses/index.html

[RealGatorFan]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

Given this economic data, I wonder what is driving the stock market?

$85 Billion/month that the Fed is printing and dropping via helicopter.

[gator996]

Originally Posted by G8trGr8t

Canada

Good answer!!!
(Damn...)


I still hate all of the Quebec plates in S Florida right now...

[gator996]

Originally Posted by RealGatorFan

$85 Billion/month that the Fed is printing and dropping via helicopter.

Yeah, but don't forget the collateral...

Bonds...I got bonds.

[oragator1]

Originally Posted by RealGatorFan

$85 Billion/month that the Fed is printing and dropping via helicopter.

That and the fact that many companies tightened their belts during the last 5 years and realized they could get by with less people. Profits are sky high even with a weak economy, which gives many companies a great long term forecast helping their valuation even more.

[gatorman_07732]

Originally Posted by gator996

Yeah, but don't forget the collateral...

Bonds...I got bonds.

Don't get caught

[neisgator]

Originally Posted by exiledgator

Pretty sure one could spin a Wally World rise or fall any way they'd like. If there is a decent one-company barometer, I'd say it's UPS.

No spin here at all. Common sense really. There sales and margins tell a big story, good or bad.

[T3goalie]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

Given this economic data, I wonder what is driving the stock market?

$85 Billlion a month can put a lot of lipstick on a pig.

[gator996]

Originally Posted by gatorman_07732

Don't get caught

Tell Lew & Bernanke...

The recovery of the real estate market will raise all boats

[Gatorrick22]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

Given this economic data, I wonder what is driving the stock market?

Europe is imploding worse than we are, and the printing presses are working overtime to artificially prop the market up.

[surfn1080]

Originally Posted by gator996

Yeah, but don't forget the collateral...

Bonds...I got bonds.

Bonds that they know will not net much after they stop qe3. They even admitted that.

[g8trjax]

Originally Posted by oragator1

I am sent literally hours worth of reading on the economy every day (some public some internal) as part of my job and for some bizarre reason enjoy reading it all.

We aren't going to be in a recession even with the sequester.
The Feds are planning on staying engaged at least through this year which will preclude it short term, barring some other force (European collapse, another large natural disaster etc). The 4th quarter numbers were skewed by Sandy among other things, most economists are predicting 2-3% growth this year, far from stellar or even what we need, but slow and steady growth.
What's interesting is the debate that is starting to emerge at the Fed about how and when they begin their pullback. They are starting to get pressure from various quarters to do so, and on the political front if they buy much more they may have to show a loss in 5 years or so when they sell the bonds they have been buying, and there isn't much political appetite for that, so they may have come close to reaching their limit on bond buys. When inflation comes back a bit they will either have to sell them to tame it and show the loss, or hold them to not show the loss and have less control over inflation. Here's an article on it, definitely something to watch:

http://money.cnn.com/2013/02/22/news...ses/index.html

It all sounds good on paper, but a few questions on all this. When the fed starts selling these treasuries, who the heck is going to buy them? When the fed starts making noise about 'no more QE', won't this cause the stock market to tank, big time? And last, how is Bernanke not held in contempt of congress, 'I will not monetize the debt'?

[exiledgator]

Originally Posted by neisgator

No spin here at all. Common sense really. There sales and margins tell a big story, good or bad.

Headline: Walmart sales skyrocket Q4, highest in 5 years

Spin A: "Things are so bad, everyone has to shop at Walmart."

Spin B: "the economy sure is humming; the nation's largest retailer is killing it!"

Headline: For 3rd straight quarter, UPS ships more packages than ever

Spin A: "Well, that's a good sign"

Spin B: "Well, that's a great sign"

[jimgata]

It looks like if anyone is going to spend, it will be the feds. They will soon be the only one with any money at all. Feb. personal income down 3.6%.