Business Fleeing California???

[GatorAbe7]

In honor of Phil Mickelson and the two +100 post threads we have simultaneously going on the topic I ran an amateur check as to whether Mickelson is merely the canary in the coal mine, as another poster put it, and give a look as to whether California is suffering a mass business Exodus.

Turns out that as soon as you type "business l" Google immediately fills in "business leaving california." The latest news article discusses specific business owners looking to leave the state in part due to being villianized over their higher earnings: Another North County San Diego resident, whose home is currently for sale, told Fox News he estimates he and his wife will save $30,000 a month by moving to Arizona. He said it's not that he is against paying his fair share, but more than 50 percent of state residents pay no personal income taxes at all, and that, he said, is "unfair".

In 2011, 254 California companies moved some or all of their work and jobs out of state, 26% more than in 2010, according to Irvine business consultant Joe Vranich who has been tracking these departures since 2009.

Articles disputing the apparent business exodus phenom are mostly dated from the last decade.

Looks like the money makers are leaving California to the takers.

[gatordowneast]

CA will become the le land of the rich, (High Tech millionaires, movie stars), state employee retirees (as long as the pension fund doesn't default) and poor (devouring state revenues). Working class being eased out and those who can live and work elsewhere with higher incomes are easing out voluntarily.

[wygator]

2010 Census Data had a net negative migration for California of 93,000 people. I'd say that's likely to be increasing. Largest numbers moved to Texas, Nevada, Arizona and Washington.

Interesting graphic here

[Dreamliner]

I'm pretty sure that 2012 saw a net positive migration for the first time in five years. And immigration from Mexico is down, probably because the economy sucks so bad.

[surfn1080]

But higher taxes don't scare off businesses....

[Dreamliner]

California is probably not a bad place to move to if you're poor. Ex: the state legislature passed a law, in 2011, that prohibits auto insurers from charging more than $350 ANNUALLY for people with satisfactory driving records who make no more than 250% above poverty level. That works out to just under 28K. They also have stringent rent controls.

[wygator]

Originally Posted by Dreamliner

I'm pretty sure that 2012 saw a net positive migration for the first time in five years. And immigration from Mexico is down, probably because the economy sucks so bad.

Data?

[Gatormb]

Originally Posted by Dreamliner

I'm pretty sure that 2012 saw a net positive migration for the first time in five years. And immigration from Mexico is down, probably because the economy sucks so bad.

Give it some time my friend. Be honest when your consult fee goes up.

[mastoidbone]

CA is faced with major problems----it is a GREAT state if you are super rich (VC, private equity, Facebook, googl, etc), it is a way for STATE workers to get pensions worth more then 1 million by age 50, and a great place to be poor---massive aid for poorer.

What it is NOT a great place is for middle class private workers----i have had no less then 6 couple friends leave---because making about 90,000 a year---they could not afford a house and public schools in CA are very bad----so they have left for AZ, NC, TX, and OR.

So population shows fewer and fewer working middle class---and more and more poor who dont pay taxes....meaning more pressure in future on public pensions.....which are 500-750 BILLION underfunded....

[Dreamliner]

Originally Posted by wygator

Data?

Read it in USA Today a few weeks ago. It could have been 2011. Why the skepticism ? I believe that California is a fiscal nightmare and I'm moving there.

[Dreamliner]

Originally Posted by Gatormb

Give it some time my friend. Be honest when your consult fee goes up.

Oh, listen, my sister lives in LA and she says I could double my Orlando-fees and Angelenos will think I'm bargain basement.

[Dreamliner]

I do know Californians who say they're basically living hand-to-mouth, but would not want to live anywhere else.

[wygator]

Originally Posted by Dreamliner

Read it in USA Today a few weeks ago. It could have been 2011. Why the skepticism ? I believe that California is a fiscal nightmare and I'm moving there.

It could well be true. But I'm a little skeptical because that kind of detailed demographic and migration data isn't usually available just as a year ends.

In addition, we have a bit of a tradition her of providing links to statistical claims when possible. My citation was linked from the US Census, probably the definitive source on the subject.

[Dreamliner]

I'll be in LA, Sun-Wed, and will bring back a report.

[wygator]

Originally Posted by Dreamliner

I'll be in LA, Sun-Wed, and will bring back a report.

Enjoy... I would love to visit LA during the Wyoming winter!!!!

[Dreamliner]

Posting from the Hotel Huntley on Santa Monica Beach. It's a bracing 48 degrees right now. Looking out our 8th floor window reminds me of Waikiki Beach with all the palm trees and with the Malibu Mountains rising over the ocean.

FYI: I've already found a cheap, one-bedroom apartment in Pasadena. And looks like my auto insurance will not exceed $350 annually. So, even poor folks can make it out here.

BTW, the prevailing attitude out here, as far as I can tell, is one of distinct optimism. Ex: my sister is a graphic design artist and her business is really picking up. Her partner is doing well too.

People seem very happy out here.

Parking can be an issue. Seems like every establishment has valet. My wife and I are paying $33 a day for valet, at our hotel. And that's excluding tips. On the other hand, I parked my car downtown for $4 all day.

[Dreamliner]

Aside: I think it's interesting that this impossibly chic hotel in Santa Monica has a Gideons Bible.

[wygator]

Originally Posted by Dreamliner

Aside: I think it's interesting that this impossibly chic hotel in Santa Monica has a Gideons Bible.

"Gideon was out, he left it no doubt..."

[Dreamliner]

Update: found a cheap place to live in Pasadena. Auto insurance will be no more than $350 annually. Health insurance will probably be a little over $100 a month. Gas is surprisingly not much higher. Groceries are maybe slightly higher than in Florida. No shortage of cheap eats and thrift shops are profuse.

Yes, the area is vastly more huge than Orlando, so I may be spending more money on gas overall. Ex: I had a rental car and it took me all day to drive from Santa Monica, to downtown, up to Pasadena, down Sunset Blvd to the ocean, up to Malibu, then back to Santa Monica.

On the other hand, rail and bus is quite extensive and their monthly passes are cheap. I'll have to play this by ear.

One thing on the docket is to invest in a good pair of hiking shoes so I can hike in the San Gabriel Mountains weekends. I can see the mountains from my bathroom window.

[gatorev12]

^best of luck to you as you start this new endeavor