BCS Title Hypothetical

[Swampmaster]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

If we protect the football, run the ball well (which looks like we'll probably be able to do), and convert efficiently on 3rd downs and in the RZ, we'll be an excellent offense, [/b]

those are a lot of ifs.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by Swampmaster

those are a lot of ifs.

Sure. And I'm not saying we will do all those things.... just that it's a far better measure of "excellence" than how many passing yards we go for.

[crestviewgator]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

AJ was 85th so who knows. Jd has nowhere near the pocket awareness as aj though. Interesting how close yet far apart we are.

Have you seen the oline AJ has had ... if ours play that well you will see a much better JD book it!!

[Tebowism0823]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

Chris Leak's worst year was better than JD at his very best frankly to compare the two is insulting to a great gator (our alltime passing leader), additionally our schedule will always be hard- going into last season we were told repeatedly that 2013 would be Boom's make or break year- if he wins less than 10 he's on the hot seat in 2014, heck if he he wins 10 but drops a 3rd straight to Georgia he's going to have to fight to keep the Bull Gators from rising up.

Everything about your post is a joke and predictable from you. You hate Boom, we get it. Move on!

[Tebowism0823]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

I think your overestimating how well Boom is regarded by some people, he's done a decent job so far but its not like he's blown anyone away additionally his approach is antithetical to a large portion of our fan base (remember some people gave Urban crap and he actually produced on the field); drop 3 straight to Georgia to begin his career and the John Cooper comparisons will be raised.

And your lack of knowledge about Muschamps supporters is showing. He has full support and is liked by all; well at least the ones that matter in the end. Muschamp has already begun to prove himself and doesn't need to prove anything to the likes of you.

[Tebowism0823]

Originally Posted by bamascott2

Yes, we would have had no chance against the Gators. We wouldn't have matched up well with them at all.

Read much? He never said anything close to what you typed.

[Tebowism0823]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

Sure. And I'm not saying we will do all those things.... just that it's a far better measure of "excellence" than how many passing yards we go for.

I agree with everything you posted. There seems to be some posters currently here that are hating on all things UF football right now. Pretty pathetic if you ask me. The ones hating on JD are the ones that never mention a line that couldn't pass block, or the lack of skill players, or the fact that we had a different OC once again. Then of course there's the clowns who continue to throw jabs at Boom for being a "dawg". As Ron White says, "You Can't Fix Stupid"

As far as the stats you're using to make your point, when somebody still argues even when proven wrong with facts, they just want to argue. I wouldn't waste your time.

[Juggernautz]

Originally Posted by tilly

I'm not convinced Bama was that much better than us this year. We would have given them a very good game...especially after seeing them versus UGA and aTm. So I see no reason to think we don't continue to improve and bring in top recruits that will keep us toe to toe.

My point is...they are in no better shape looking 5 years ahead than we are.

...and yes...the BCS ends next year

Maybe Louisville as well?

[GatorAvatar]

Originally Posted by geauxgator1

If he wins 10 games this year, and lstill loses to UGA, I don't think anyone will complain too hard even the bulls.

Three straight losses to UGALY will not bode well for CWM.

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

So I "cherry picked" for a discussion on championship football by citing the stats for all of the BCS championship football teams.

It appears you would prefer to look at stats for teams that don't win championships.

Of course we need great defense.

Defense wins championships isn't just a cliche.
The 2008 Sooners had the highest scoring offense in CFB history. They were held to 14 points by our defense. There probably wasn't a Sooner fan alive that believed that was even remotely possible.

The 2006 Bucknuts and Heisman winner "Honk if you've sacked me" Troy Smith held to seven offensive points... by a team that "didn't even belong in the game".

The only BCS title winner I can think of that didn't have a great defense was Auburn... and their defensive line overpowered the Oregon OL and thoroughly disrupted Oregon's "unstoppable" offense. So, it was still defense that ruled the day.

As far as great defenses being difficult to achieve, it is no coincidence that Muschamp builds great defenses where ever he goes. The guy knows how to coach defense. And he's been loading up talent on that side of the ball, so there is plenty to work with, even though we're losing some key players. We'll likely have some growing pains, but a couple months into the season, I expect we will have a top 10 defense (or better), based on the talent he's working with, and the progression we've seen in our players the first couple of years.

The definition of "excellence" on offense is the real issue here.
Nobody is arguing for "mediocre" offense, or against "striving for excellence" on offense. What is being argued is the definition of excellence.

Throwing for 250 ypg, has nothing to do with winning football, and in fact is rarely what championship teams do, as clearly illustrated by BCS history.

Minimizing negative plays, maximizing 3rd down conversion percentage, RZ conversion percentage, passing efficiency and of course TO margin are all far more important statistics. That's where you win ball games. Throwing the ball around the park a lot gets people excited and looks great against mediocre defenses. But it is a recipe for negative plays, TOs, and poor 3rd down and RZ conversion percentage, when you play against elite defenses.

If we protect the football, run the ball well (which looks like we'll probably be able to do), and convert efficiently on 3rd downs and in the RZ, we'll be an excellent offense, whether we throw for 100 yards or 300 yards.

Go Gators!

It is fine for bar discussion, but don't try to pass it off as statistics. And the truth is YPG is a bad statistic to begin with. Looking at poor statistics and doing poor analysis with them can only result in meaningless conclusions.

And FYI this streak of SEC champions has had nearly as much to do with offense than defense. Bama was 5th in the nation on a per play basis last year. Go down the list of MNC winners and you'll see a similar trend.

And your assumption that offenses that lean pass are more apt to get shut down is false. Sure, passing offenses have far more variability on a per play basis, with more risk. The reward is much higher as well. And besides a great defense, by definition, is more likely to hold a great offense under their average. Just like a great offense is more likely to hurt a great defenses average.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

It is fine for bar discussion, but don't try to pass it off as statistics. And the truth is YPG is a bad statistic to begin with. Looking at poor statistics and doing poor analysis with them can only result in meaningless conclusions.

And FYI this streak of SEC champions has had nearly as much to do with offense than defense. Bama was 5th in the nation on a per play basis last year. Go down the list of MNC winners and you'll see a similar trend.

And your assumption that offenses that lean pass are more apt to get shut down is false. Sure, passing offenses have far more variability on a per play basis, with more risk. The reward is much higher as well. And besides a great defense, by definition, is more likely to hold a great offense under their average. Just like a great offense is more likely to hurt a great defenses average.

I should probably take Tebowism's advice, but I'll respond this last time, and I'm done.

If you want to come on here talking about statistics like you know something about them, try actually using them to support your position.

I specifically demonstrated how passing ypg at the mythical 250 ypg level proposed by another poster as critical to us winning next season, have very low correlation to winning championships (<20% for BCS overall, and 0% since 2004). That is a statistically supported fact.

So now you throw your hands up in the air, and say you don't like that stat. Well, if you actually believe it's a bad stat, why in the wide wide world of sports were you arguing with me about it?

Just freaking bizarre.

Peace. Out. Go Gators.

[whitelakegator]

Ok...so let me REPHRASE...Alabama had the 31st overall offense in the FBS. We were 103.

I'm sorry you CLUNG to the 250 yds/game number like a life raft at the Titanic.

Let's be real and call a spade for what it is...our offense sucked no matter you try to rationalize it. It wasn't a championship offense. The defense was and we missed out on a great opportunity. I don't bet against the Gators on anything...if I did...I would certainly give you odds that we end up outside the top 20 next year on defense.

The whole point of my even saying JD will have to improve massively is because the defense will take a step back. We may have to win some games 31-28 or 35-31.

There's nothing mythical about 103rd in offense.

EDIT: Doing a "little" research myself...the worst offense I could find so far is Bama at 42nd a couple years back. Most in the last ten years are top 20. To reiterate, that crap we saw last year isn't going to win anything. Does that make sense? Close to the vest is one thing, having a vest three sizes too small is entirely another. The offense needs a lot of work regardless of the rationalizations made on here.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

Ok...so let me REPHRASE...Alabama had the 31st overall offense in the FBS. We were 103.

I'm sorry you CLUNG to the 250 yds/game number like a life raft at the Titanic.

Let's be real and call a spade for what it is...our offense sucked no matter you try to rationalize it. It wasn't a championship offense. The defense was and we missed out on a great opportunity. I don't bet against the Gators on anything...if I did...I would certainly give you odds that we end up outside the top 20 next year on defense.

The whole point of my even saying JD will have to improve massively is because the defense will take a step back. We may have to win some games 31-28 or 35-31.

There's nothing mythical about 103rd in offense.

Our offense will need to improve... even if we field another top five quality defense, we need more efficient offense to compete effectively against elite defenses.

No arguments there.

I think we would all be well advised to understand how Muschamp is architecting the team to win ball games, and understand what a good offense is in that context, though. An efficient offense that dominates the LOS, protects the ball, moves the chains, gets explosive plays and puts the ball in the end zone - he'll go for that. Passing numbers can vary a good deal and still fit within that criteria.

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

I should probably take Tebowism's advice, but I'll respond this last time, and I'm done.

If you want to come on here talking about statistics like you know something about them, try actually using them to support your position.

I specifically demonstrated how passing ypg at the mythical 250 ypg level proposed by another poster as critical to us winning next season, have very low correlation to winning championships (<20% for BCS overall, and 0% since 2004). That is a statistically supported fact.

So now you throw your hands up in the air, and say you don't like that stat. Well, if you actually believe it's a bad stat, why in the wide wide world of sports were you arguing with me about it?

Just freaking bizarre.

Peace. Out. Go Gators.

I prefer advanced stats used correctly. Now we don't have to bust out confidence intervals here, but we can't stoop so low to pick arbitrary numbers in small sample sizes to try to prove a point.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by Bazza

You know an argument could be made if we were able to change from the most penalized team in the conference to the least penalized team we would win the conference championship right there.

Can we change our culture?

Would think we could with the right coaching.

I think penalties are overrated in fans eyes- unless you can just hold with impunity(Bama) I don't think they hurt too much(its not like this is a new thing the Spurrier and Meyer teams were also heavily penalized), our problem currently is that our offense is so conservative that a single holding penalty and at times even a false start essentially ends a drive since our play calling is basically short run, short run, short pass- if we become more explosive and air it out more 5 and 10 yard set backs wont be completely catastrophic.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

In all honesty, you don't know enough about football or you don't pay enough attention. Likely you were one of the people before the season picking a 7-5 record... because you don't understand the game, or the strength of the team Muschamp is building. Our record was no fluke. If we had not had an uncharacteristic chitstorm of TOs against UGA, we'd have been undefeated in the regular season. That's a fact.

That same UGA team that needed six TOs to beat us, came within 10 yards and a brainfart of beating Bama. That's a fact.

Will our defense backslide a bit? Sure. Do we need more efficient offense? Sure. In fact I stated both points. Thanks for reiterating. But likely your definition of an above averge offense doesn't align with what we need to win games. Too many people around here are stiil in SOS 90s era jock... Got news for you - he's changed his jock. Winning the TO battle, winning the LOS, playing great defense and special teams... He actually coaches his team to win games that way, because it works.

I realize the current trend is to worship Bama, but its not the only way to win- heck, Bama found that out when a "soft" "gimmick" spread team came in to T-town and dropped 21 in the first quarter on them. Honestly the "needed 6 turnovers" thing is a red herring- did we get lucky and "need 5 turnovers" to beat FSU-- after all we trailed in that game going into the 4th, while UGA basically controlled the game for much of the day.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by Tebowism0823

And your lack of knowledge about Muschamps supporters is showing. He has full support and is liked by all; well at least the ones that matter in the end. Muschamp has already begun to prove himself and doesn't need to prove anything to the likes of you.

If you think a say 8 or 9 win season with a 3 straight loss to UGA wouldn't make Boom sweat 2014 your crazy. Heck if he doesn't win an SEC title (not just an East title) by 2015 he's gone- you don't go 5 years at Florida and not win the SEC and keep your job that's just the way it is- if you want to accept mediocrity start rooting for the Noles.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

I realize the current trend is to worship Bama, but its not the only way to win- heck, Bama found that out when a "soft" "gimmick" spread team came in to T-town and dropped 21 in the first quarter on them. Honestly the "needed 6 turnovers" thing is a red herring- did we get lucky and "need 5 turnovers" to beat FSU-- after all we trailed in that game going into the 4th, while UGA basically controlled the game for much of the day.

Play great defense and special teams, and win the TO battle... those have always been the biggest keys to winning football.

What did Meyer always emphasize in the plan to win? There's your answer above.

It's got nothing to do with Bama... it's the most tried and true way to win championships. Which is why Muschamp has the same "plan to win" as Meyer did, although with different types of players and schemes, and more emphasis on winning the LOS and wearing down opponents to help win the 4th quarter.

Personally, I'm good with that, cuz it works.

When he has his players in his systems with Pease and company, we'll be fine on offense. Just takes a little time after the cluster function the Meyer left us on offense, and knowing the first priority is to play great defense.

As far as Bama goes, they were in a rebuilding year. A&M got them because Bama's defense was not great this year, due to losing so many players to the NFL.

But Bama still had enough to win the national championship, thoroughly decimating an undefeated Notre Dame team.

Maybe they actually know a little something about winning football there.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

If you think a say 8 or 9 win season with a 3 straight loss to UGA wouldn't make Boom sweat 2014 your crazy. Heck if he doesn't win an SEC title (not just an East title) by 2015 he's gone- you don't go 5 years at Florida and not win the SEC and keep your job that's just the way it is- if you want to accept mediocrity start rooting for the Noles.

Since when is it "mediocre" to go 11-2 in your second season, playing the toughest schedule in the country, while rebuilding a program that the prior coach openly stated was "broken"?

There are all kinds of doom and gloom scenarios we could invent where any coach would get fired. But why invent them, when the evidence shows our current coach has the program going in the right direction? And why declare other posters as "accepting mediocrity" when there is no evidence of that either?

It's clear that you don't like Muschamp for some reason. That's certainly your right. But it's clearly not based on his performance.

[baygator1]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

Since when is it "mediocre" to go 11-2 in your second season, playing the toughest schedule in the country, while rebuilding a program that the prior coach openly stated was "broken"?

There are all kinds of doom and gloom scenarios we could invent where any coach would get fired. But why invent them, when the evidence shows our current coach has the program going in the right direction? And why declare other posters as "accepting mediocrity" when there is no evidence of that either?

It's clear that you don't like Muschamp for some reason. That's certainly your right. But it's clearly not based on his performance.

No kidding. Part of the mediocrity is coaching in Kansas (and other parts), part of it graduated, and some transferred.

Muschamp has assembled a fine staff. He's recruiting his rear end off. And he's nearly overcome the urban debacle.