BCS Title Hypothetical

[95Gator]

Originally Posted by grantgator

I believe next year is the last year of the BCS.

Hahaha. Fantastic second post in this thread.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

Prediction: If we win ten games it will be because JD major a huge huge jump. 3200yds 20 TDs 8 picks - That's only 250 yds per game. That would put him in the top 40. He finished 99th last year. If he has trouble breaking 200 yds/game we will struggle to win eight games.

Dude - you're stuck in the 90s. Since USC with Leinart in 2004 not a single BCS champ has passed for 250 ypg, and the average has been around 200 ypg.

Besides 2004, only reFSU in 99 and the Sooners in 2000 passed for 250 ypg. In 16 BCS seasons, only three championship teams passed like that. Most pass for 200 to 210 ypg... and run the ball, protect the ball, play defense and special teams.

The 2002 Bucknuts passed for just 150 ypg and won the championship.

We do need more balance, but that is mostly about being able to effectively take what the defense gives when they over commit to taking something away, and being efficient on 3rd and 5, and in the RZ. We won't be a championship team if we need to throw the ball for 250 ypg or more... that will indicate we have problems on defense. With the team Muschamp is building, if we can pass efficiently at 200 to 210 ypg, we'll win a ton of games and be set up to win championships.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by geauxgator1

If he wins 10 games this year, and lstill loses to UGA, I don't think anyone will complain too hard even the bulls.

I think your overestimating how well Boom is regarded by some people, he's done a decent job so far but its not like he's blown anyone away additionally his approach is antithetical to a large portion of our fan base (remember some people gave Urban crap and he actually produced on the field); drop 3 straight to Georgia to begin his career and the John Cooper comparisons will be raised.

[Swampmaster]

ga and fla will likely have the same SEC record in 2013---the winner of the ga/fla game wins the east.

[geauxgator1]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

I think your overestimating how well Boom is regarded by some people, he's done a decent job so far but its not like he's blown anyone away additionally his approach is antithetical to a large portion of our fan base (remember some people gave Urban crap and he actually produced on the field); drop 3 straight to Georgia to begin his career and the John Cooper comparisons will be raised.

Maybe so with the boosters, but i don't think Foley is so much intimidated at this point. We were 11-2, that buys him some time. By anyone's standards, this team overachieved this year.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by geauxgator1

Maybe so with the boosters, but i don't think Foley is so much intimidated at this point. We were 11-2, that buys him some time. By anyone's standards, this team overachieved this year.

For sure. And any booster that doesn't realize how well Muschamp has done so far has a lot more money than brains.

[socraticsilence]

He did well, we got a ton of breaks though its not like we should be giving him a huge extension or anything. And I think you guys are underestimating just how much going 0 and 3 vs. the Dawgs would hurt his perception especially given the brand of football he likes isn't exactly well-received and that as a Dawg he'd get extra flak.

[Bazza]

You know an argument could be made if we were able to change from the most penalized team in the conference to the least penalized team we would win the conference championship right there.

Can we change our culture?

Would think we could with the right coaching.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by Bazza

You know an argument could be made if we were able to change from the most penalized team in the conference to the least penalized team we would win the conference championship right there.

Can we change our culture?

Would think we could with the right coaching.

We're always the most penalized regardless of the coach. And the same coaches coach teams that are far less penalized when they coach elsewhere.

I do think we can coach more discipline in the team and we should... the illegal procedure penalties kill me. But there is also bias within SEC officials at work here and it's always clearly demonstrated in simple things like holding calls and illegal blocks on kick returns. We get called far more than other teams, even in situations where other teams are doing a lot more holding.

[bamascott2]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

Bama did get lucky to win the SEC. They had the easiest possible schedule they could get, LSU gave away their game, and UGA was one play and boneheaded clock management away from beating them in the SECCG.

Even though we had issues on offense this year, we'd have played them very tight if we got to the SECCG and certainly could have beaten them.

Yes, we would have had no chance against the Gators. We wouldn't have matched up well with them at all.

[tilly]

Originally Posted by orangeblueorangeblue

I have heard of the playoff and the lack of seeding. I thought the BCS would still exist outside of the championship game(s).

But there will be no BCS title as the OP mentions.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Tablet using Gator Country

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

No doubt we need a more efficient passing game.

But people thinking we need to pass for a lot of yards or who don't appreciate the TD to Int ratio, are missing out on a lot of strong football.

We don't need to pass for a ton of yards. That's not what Muschamp is trying to build and not what we need to be a championship football team. We just need to be able to keep the defense somewhat off balance, expose what they are trying to do, and take what the defense gives us when they over commit to stopping some aspect of the offense. And protect the damned ball... it is no coincidence that the only games we lost the TO battle and special teams, we lost.

Very few big passing teams win championships in football. Even in the NFL, which has done everything possible to force themselves into a passing league, two of the most "old school" style teams are in the Super Bowl.

And the ole ball coach himself has gone to the old school style of football. Because he knows it is the best way to win.

That's ridiculous honestly. We had the best defense in the nation and lucked into our record. In coin flip scenarios we hit more than we didn't.

Winning titles has a simple formula. All else equal your offense and defense, combined has to be better than everyone else. The key point is combined. You don't get brownie points for doing it a certain way. We found out this year the absolute best D cannot win with an O that bad. At the end of the day our offense has to put up points. CWM is the HBC and he can decide how he wants to do it. But he needs an above average O this year, frankly a really good O. Our D will step back and while average O would have gotten us the crystal this year we will need pretty good O next year

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

That's ridiculous honestly. We had the best defense in the nation and lucked into our record. In coin flip scenarios we hit more than we didn't.

Winning titles has a simple formula. All else equal your offense and defense, combined has to be better than everyone else. The key point is combined. You don't get brownie points for doing it a certain way. We found out this year the absolute best D cannot win with an O that bad. At the end of the day our offense has to put up points. CWM is the HBC and he can decide how he wants to do it. But he needs an above average O this year, frankly a really good O. Our D will step back and while average O would have gotten us the crystal this year we will need pretty good O next year

In all honesty, you don't know enough about football or you don't pay enough attention. Likely you were one of the people before the season picking a 7-5 record... because you don't understand the game, or the strength of the team Muschamp is building. Our record was no fluke. If we had not had an uncharacteristic chitstorm of TOs against UGA, we'd have been undefeated in the regular season. That's a fact.

That same UGA team that needed six TOs to beat us, came within 10 yards and a brainfart of beating Bama. That's a fact.

Will our defense backslide a bit? Sure. Do we need more efficient offense? Sure. In fact I stated both points. Thanks for reiterating. But likely your definition of an above averge offense doesn't align with what we need to win games. Too many people around here are stiil in SOS 90s era jock... Got news for you - he's changed his jock. Winning the TO battle, winning the LOS, playing great defense and special teams... He actually coaches his team to win games that way, because it works.

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

In all honesty, you don't know enough about football or you don't pay enough attention. Likely you were one of the people before the season picking a 7-5 record... because you don't understand the game, or the strength of the team Muschamp is building. Our record was no fluke. If we had not had an uncharacteristic chitstorm of TOs against UGA, we'd have been undefeated in the regular season. That's a fact.

That same UGA team that needed six TOs to beat us, came within 10 yards and a brainfart of beating Bama. That's a fact.

Will our defense backslide a bit? Sure. Do we need more efficient offense? Sure. In fact I stated both points. Thanks for reiterating. But likely your definition of an above averge offense doesn't align with what we need to win games. Too many people around here are stiil in SOS 90s era jock... Got news for you - he's changed his jock. Winning the TO battle, winning the LOS, playing great defense and special teams... He actually coaches his team to win games that way, because it works.

Actually it's just statistics 101 that comes from a fine education from the University of Florida. Now I'm sure you went to the school so why are you forgetting what you learned? You must have been one of those folks that thought ND was better than Bama because they were undefeated with a respectable schedule.

I don't care if we have a SOS type offense. What I do care about is an offense. And what I do know is a 1960s style smash mouth predictable O is not the way to go. It doesn't work. Damn take a look at the NFL, folks like you misrepresent pro style. Every team in the playoffs spun the hell out of the ball, used innovative offenses from college, or used the spread.

[Swampmaster]

unfortunately, as long as saban is at alabama, I think alabama wins more national titles in the next 10 years than florida. Hopefully, UF gets a couple.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

Actually it's just statistics 101 that comes from a fine education from the University of Florida. Now I'm sure you went to the school so why are you forgetting what you learned? You must have been one of those folks that thought ND was better than Bama because they were undefeated with a respectable schedule.

I don't care if we have a SOS type offense. What I do care about is an offense. And what I do know is a 1960s style smash mouth predictable O is not the way to go. It doesn't work. Damn take a look at the NFL, folks like you misrepresent pro style. Every team in the playoffs spun the hell out of the ball, used innovative offenses from college, or used the spread.

What would the fine Statistics profs at UF tell you about the need to throw for 250 ypg to win a championship, when only three of sixteen BCS champs have done it? And none since the 2004 season?

That's where this conversation between you and I started, and you telling me I'm ridiculous when I pointed this out. It's abundantly clear that you never took that Stats 101 course... or none of it sunk in.

[Bazza]

However we do it....we need a better % in Red Zone scoring and less penalties.

My 2 cents.

[Bazza]

Originally Posted by Swampmaster

unfortunately, as long as saban is at alabama, I think alabama wins more national titles in the next 10 years than florida. Hopefully, UF gets a couple.

I agree with this.

Saban is amazing.

Alabama is amazing.

Don't hate me or take this the wrong way but I'm glad we didn't play them this year.

Next year with another year under Driskel and Peases's belt, should we play against them - we would fare better.

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

What would the fine Statistics profs at UF tell you about the need to throw for 250 ypg to win a championship, when only three of sixteen BCS champs have done it? And none since the 2004 season?

That's where this conversation between you and I started, and you telling me I'm ridiculous when I pointed this out. It's abundantly clear that you never took that Stats 101 course... or none of it sunk in.

They would say that is terrible cherry picking analysis.

And besides your starting point seems to require a great defense. While that is great, it is a massive assumption when constructing a team. You can't go into it saying "lets have a mediocre O and a great defense." A great defense is very difficult to achieve. You have a far better chance at achieving excellence by striving for it on both sides of the ball, so one side can carry the other when need be.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

They would say that is terrible cherry picking analysis.

So I "cherry picked" for a discussion on championship football by citing the stats for all of the BCS championship football teams.

It appears you would prefer to look at stats for teams that don't win championships.

And besides your starting point seems to require a great defense. While that is great, it is a massive assumption when constructing a team. You can't go into it saying "lets have a mediocre O and a great defense." A great defense is very difficult to achieve. You have a far better chance at achieving excellence by striving for it on both sides of the ball, so one side can carry the other when need be.

Of course we need great defense.

Defense wins championships isn't just a cliche.
The 2008 Sooners had the highest scoring offense in CFB history. They were held to 14 points by our defense. There probably wasn't a Sooner fan alive that believed that was even remotely possible.

The 2006 Bucknuts and Heisman winner "Honk if you've sacked me" Troy Smith held to seven offensive points... by a team that "didn't even belong in the game".

The only BCS title winner I can think of that didn't have a great defense was Auburn... and their defensive line overpowered the Oregon OL and thoroughly disrupted Oregon's "unstoppable" offense. So, it was still defense that ruled the day.

As far as great defenses being difficult to achieve, it is no coincidence that Muschamp builds great defenses where ever he goes. The guy knows how to coach defense. And he's been loading up talent on that side of the ball, so there is plenty to work with, even though we're losing some key players. We'll likely have some growing pains, but a couple months into the season, I expect we will have a top 10 defense (or better), based on the talent he's working with, and the progression we've seen in our players the first couple of years.

The definition of "excellence" on offense is the real issue here.
Nobody is arguing for "mediocre" offense, or against "striving for excellence" on offense. What is being argued is the definition of excellence.

Throwing for 250 ypg, has nothing to do with winning football, and in fact is rarely what championship teams do, as clearly illustrated by BCS history.

Minimizing negative plays, maximizing 3rd down conversion percentage, RZ conversion percentage, passing efficiency and of course TO margin are all far more important statistics. That's where you win ball games. Throwing the ball around the park a lot gets people excited and looks great against mediocre defenses. But it is a recipe for negative plays, TOs, and poor 3rd down and RZ conversion percentage, when you play against elite defenses.

If we protect the football, run the ball well (which looks like we'll probably be able to do), and convert efficiently on 3rd downs and in the RZ, we'll be an excellent offense, whether we throw for 100 yards or 300 yards.

Go Gators!