Pubs to leverage sequestration---balance budget in 10 years

[mastoidbone]

Using the huge cuts coming in march, resetting budget baseline---allows math to work over 10 years plus increased taxes passes last month.
I was afraid the PUBS would blink on automatic cuts---to save their sacred cows---but it appears they have found fiscal religion and are committed to CUTS.

This is GREAT news for all americans----this is first REAL cuts we have seen or heard about in a generation....bravo if it works.

Guess in DC is DEMS will cave on entitlements to reduce sequestration cuts due in march----resulting in a win for all americans as govt spending gets cut and fiscal outlook improves.
Result is cut defense, cut entitlements, cut discretionary spending, and some increased taxes-----i love it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-l...130023787.html

[108]

I am hoping that cuts to entitlements (biggest being medicare) will force us to look for ways to get better outcomes with reduced costs, rather than just cut off the money and shift the burden to the individual, which will hurt demand

The costs of healthcare is really where we need to be zeroed in on....the big money won't allow it though

[surfn1080]

Originally Posted by 108

I am hoping that cuts to entitlements (biggest being medicare) will force us to look for ways to get better outcomes with reduced costs, rather than just cut off the money and shift the burden to the individual, which will hurt demand

The costs of healthcare is really where we need to be zeroed in on....the big money won't allow it though

108, i agree that cost of healthcare is to great.

First we must start somewhere and if this works, its a step in the right direction.

Second, the beast that is healthcare cost is a great burden that needs to be addressed but not taken lightly. Like you said, it makes to many wallets fat and we may never see change.

[dudehead]

As for Medicare, Big Pharma and Big Hospital will fight tooth and nail on reimbursement cuts. So Congress will probably swing the axe at benefit cuts. The grey wolves will howl loudly. Can they and AARP stop that axe?

[ArtDeco]

108,
If you are serious about the "costs" of healthcare, we have two options:
1. Follow the example of Europe, most notably the UK, where government is fully engaged and has taxed their people so greatly that no one has the resources to pay for their own health decisions; therefore, every citizen is at the mercy of the bureaucracy and healthcare choices are made by government employees, not by you and your family. The result is long wait times for even the simplest procedures and inflated costs, because there is no built in disincentive to seeing a doctor. I would advise against this option, as for the first time in my lifetime, even the sheep in the UK are waking up and saving some money to "go private" for the things that really matter. I speak in this manner because I have family in the UK. For a less extreme example, see Canada.

2. Get the government out of healthcare, adn to a lesser extent, the insurance companies too. You wouldn't report a scratch on your used car to your auto insurance, they would drop you for such nonsense. In the same manner, people shouldn't use their insurance for colds and spider veins/vanity problems. Insurance was meant to be for life threatening and catastrophic problems so a family wouldn't go bankrupt. You have no idea, I believe almost 50% of my visits could be avoided or could be considered unnecessary from a medical perspective. The biggest abusers of the system are those with little or no copays, i.e. Medicaid, Medicare HMOs, and the military families. Those people I see with commercial insurance with higher cost shares and copays- Blue Cross, Aetna, etc.- normally do not trouble me for trivial or vanity concerns. So we need people to have catastrophic plans with more cost sharing for the non-important measures.

[exiledgator]

Originally Posted by mastoidbone

Using the huge cuts coming in march, resetting budget baseline---allows math to work over 10 years plus increased taxes passes last month.
I was afraid the PUBS would blink on automatic cuts---to save their sacred cows---but it appears they have found fiscal religion and are committed to CUTS.

This is GREAT news for all americans----this is first REAL cuts we have seen or heard about in a generation....bravo if it works.

Guess in DC is DEMS will cave on entitlements to reduce sequestration cuts due in march----resulting in a win for all americans as govt spending gets cut and fiscal outlook improves.
Result is cut defense, cut entitlements, cut discretionary spending, and some increased taxes-----i love it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-l...130023787.html

Fantastic. Write your congressmen, everyone! Let's get this going.

[108]

Originally Posted by ArtDeco

108,
If you are serious about the "costs" of healthcare, we have two options:
1. Follow the example of Europe, most notably the UK, where government is fully engaged and has taxed their people so greatly that no one has the resources to pay for their own health decisions; therefore, every citizen is at the mercy of the bureaucracy and healthcare choices are made by government employees, not by you and your family. The result is long wait times for even the simplest procedures and inflated costs, because there is no built in disincentive to seeing a doctor. I would advise against this option, as for the first time in my lifetime, even the sheep in the UK are waking up and saving some money to "go private" for the things that really matter. I speak in this manner because I have family in the UK. For a less extreme example, see Canada.

2. Get the government out of healthcare, adn to a lesser extent, the insurance companies too. You wouldn't report a scratch on your used car to your auto insurance, they would drop you for such nonsense. In the same manner, people shouldn't use their insurance for colds and spider veins/vanity problems. Insurance was meant to be for life threatening and catastrophic problems so a family wouldn't go bankrupt. You have no idea, I believe almost 50% of my visits could be avoided or could be considered unnecessary from a medical perspective. The biggest abusers of the system are those with little or no copays, i.e. Medicaid, Medicare HMOs, and the military families. Those people I see with commercial insurance with higher cost shares and copays- Blue Cross, Aetna, etc.- normally do not trouble me for trivial or vanity concerns. So we need people to have catastrophic plans with more cost sharing for the non-important measures.

I disagree with your first example as being the end all for Single Payer systems...there are others out there that are better

As for the second, it would be interesting to see a true free market when it comes to health care, but I think it is completely unrealistic to think it will ever happen. And while in many instances insurance isn't needed, it is still needed overall.

[Gatorrick22]

Originally Posted by mastoidbone

Using the huge cuts coming in march, resetting budget baseline---allows math to work over 10 years plus increased taxes passes last month.
I was afraid the PUBS would blink on automatic cuts---to save their sacred cows---but it appears they have found fiscal religion and are committed to CUTS.

This is GREAT news for all americans----this is first REAL cuts we have seen or heard about in a generation....bravo if it works.

Guess in DC is DEMS will cave on entitlements to reduce sequestration cuts due in march----resulting in a win for all americans as govt spending gets cut and fiscal outlook improves.
Result is cut defense, cut entitlements, cut discretionary spending, and some increased taxes-----i love it.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-l...130023787.html

That sounds encouraging - lets hope the congress doesn't let us all down again.

[wgbgator]

Balanced budget in 10 years = rainbows and unicorns

[Gatorrick22]

Originally Posted by wgbgator

Balanced budget in 10 years = rainbows and unicorns

Do you want a balanced budget?

[wgbgator]

Originally Posted by Gatorrick22

Do you want a balanced budget?

That should be a goal of sorts, but I have no particular fetish about it being balanced from YTY. It certainly won't happen in 10 years without a complete capitulation on something sacred and a murderously ruthless slashing of discretionary spending. Even the politically toxic, non-starter Ryan budget achieved balance in 30-40 years under the absolute rosiest of economic outlooks. How in the world could it happen in 10 years and be less fanciful?

[mastoidbone]

The 10 year window might be a bit optimistic---but we dont NEED a balanced budget to be frank---if we get it to 2-3% of GDP it becomes sustainable and LONG TERM debt can be reduced. Obama has racked us up to deficits of 10% and is proud of it.

But there is a trillion a year to close---closing it by 100 Billion a year is doable and SHOULD be done. Of course, much of that depends on overall GROWTH of economy as well-----easy to do with GDP of 4% real hard if it is Obamaish 2%.

My FEAR is PUBS will cave on defense cuts and give away discretionary and entitlement cuts to reduce defense cuts----while I feel we spend at least 25-50% more on defense then is warranted---too many bases, too many poor weapon systems, etc etc.

BUT---if PUBS stand firm and get FULL cuts---a balanced budget can be close to being achieved----but the PUB party I know has NOT had stomach for the pain of cuts...we shall see.

BUT the PUBS have ALL the leverage here---the cuts are law, they can force DEMS to cave in on a lot to reduce those cuts or do nothing and let the cuts go down.

[wgbgator]

The Pubs have no more leverage than they did yesterday or 3 weeks ago. Moreover, the kind of cuts they want to extract are deeply unpopular. That's not to say it couldnt happen, but usually people that loudly claim to all that will listen that they have leverage or convince their members they will have more by punting, don't have much at all. The only way I could see it happening is if Pubs give on taxes and new revenue, which they seem unwilling to do. No chance of a big compromise unless that happens.

[tegator80]

Sorry, but this doesn't make much sense. This comes across as 1995 government shutdown all over again and the Pubs would get the blame this time also. Everyone KNOWS that the spending has to come down to balance the budget but no one wants to lose their voters by making real choices.

I still foresee a smoke and mirrors approach to "solutions" followed by the inevitable financial train wreck down the line.

[Gatorrick22]

Originally Posted by wgbgator

The Pubs have no more leverage than they did yesterday or 3 weeks ago. Moreover, the kind of cuts they want to extract are deeply unpopular. That's not to say it couldnt happen, but usually people that loudly claim to all that will listen that they have leverage or convince their members they will have more by punting, don't have much at all. The only way I could see it happening is if Pubs give on taxes and new revenue, which they seem unwilling to do. No chance of a big compromise unless that happens.

I don't care about the Pubs and their "leverage" I just want a congress that acts like they know how to manage/balance a budget.

[g8orbill]

Originally Posted by ArtDeco

108,
If you are serious about the "costs" of healthcare, we have two options:
1. Follow the example of Europe, most notably the UK, where government is fully engaged and has taxed their people so greatly that no one has the resources to pay for their own health decisions; therefore, every citizen is at the mercy of the bureaucracy and healthcare choices are made by government employees, not by you and your family. The result is long wait times for even the simplest procedures and inflated costs, because there is no built in disincentive to seeing a doctor. I would advise against this option, as for the first time in my lifetime, even the sheep in the UK are waking up and saving some money to "go private" for the things that really matter. I speak in this manner because I have family in the UK. For a less extreme example, see Canada.

2. Get the government out of healthcare, adn to a lesser extent, the insurance companies too. You wouldn't report a scratch on your used car to your auto insurance, they would drop you for such nonsense. In the same manner, people shouldn't use their insurance for colds and spider veins/vanity problems. Insurance was meant to be for life threatening and catastrophic problems so a family wouldn't go bankrupt. You have no idea, I believe almost 50% of my visits could be avoided or could be considered unnecessary from a medical perspective. The biggest abusers of the system are those with little or no copays, i.e. Medicaid, Medicare HMOs, and the military families. Those people I see with commercial insurance with higher cost shares and copays- Blue Cross, Aetna, etc.- normally do not trouble me for trivial or vanity concerns. So we need people to have catastrophic plans with more cost sharing for the non-important measures.

I vote for door number 2

[bluelang]

We'll know exactly how serious they are about balancing the budget by how much they reduce military spending.

[mastoidbone]

nothing like govt shutdown----nothing.
The cuts are now law---the pubs can do NOTHING and we will see first REAL cuts in spending in a generation. These cuts become new budget baseline and results in cuts for years compared to old baseline.
With increased revenue just passed and some decent growth---we can approach a balanced budget in 10 years----anything close to 200 billion deficit is probably fine.

SO if pubs agree to cut defense and all discretionary spending---our fiscal outlook is greatly improved---throw in some new revenue and we are in business.

The key will be getting some entitlement cuts, some tax reform , and some more revenue.

I prefer a VAT and loss of deductions and lower rates overall and abolishment of corporate taxes while increasing CAP gains and div rates---resulting in tax revenue approaching historic norms of 20-21% of GDP----at same time must execute MASSIVE cuts in govt spending to reduce it from 25% of GDP to 22-23% of GDP-----this is where DEMS fail.

[tegator80]

Originally Posted by mastoidbone

nothing like govt shutdown----nothing.
The cuts are now law---the pubs can do NOTHING and we will see first REAL cuts in spending in a generation. These cuts become new budget baseline and results in cuts for years compared to old baseline.
With increased revenue just passed and some decent growth---we can approach a balanced budget in 10 years----anything close to 200 billion deficit is probably fine.

SO if pubs agree to cut defense and all discretionary spending---our fiscal outlook is greatly improved---throw in some new revenue and we are in business.

The key will be getting some entitlement cuts, some tax reform , and some more revenue.

I prefer a VAT and loss of deductions and lower rates overall and abolishment of corporate taxes while increasing CAP gains and div rates---resulting in tax revenue approaching historic norms of 20-21% of GDP----at same time must execute MASSIVE cuts in govt spending to reduce it from 25% of GDP to 22-23% of GDP-----this is where DEMS fail.

Where I disagree with you isn't that sequestration has real cuts attached to it but that at the heart of the law was essentially a poison pill. It passed to give the special committee credence to make hard but appropriate choices, because the other option would be too awful to live with. The committee failed to do anything tangible and now sequestration can be implemented. The only problem is that the cuts are essentially in a small segment of the overall budget: defense and discretionary spending. I foresee that when the message gets sent on what these reductions will mean to local economies there is going to be a BIG push to "do something" to preserve their turf. So saying that the Pubs don't have to do anything is not likely to happen. And if sequestration gets close I expect a blitz from the liberals and media about all of the harm it will do...and blame the Pubs.

That is why I still think that it is a silly exercise to believe that the Pubs have a leg up in this. They can either win the battle but lose the war (the next election) or use smoke and mirrors to keep from being the bad guys and we continue on our current path. My vote - based on history - is the second option.

[rpmGator]

Cutting infrastructure when we have 100 year old sewers, and bridges that will fall down is kicking your can down the road. It's on that list if some of you can get past the hate for SS and Medicare.

Keeping oil loopholes so an industry making more than ever can pay less to this nation, isn't on the list of cuts. Go figure.

Do Republicans want to lose the house also. That is the way its going.