The lefts peoples champ: Nate Silver on debt

[surfn1080]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ment-spending/

This should be fun!!!





I guess defense has not been the sole problem!!!

[orangeblueorangeblue]

I have never heard a single person ever say defense has been the sole problem.

It's a very wide-reaching problem.

[orangeblueorangeblue]

The article is worth reading. Obviously those graphs are also tempered a bit by including state and local governments as well.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by surfn1080

This should be fun!!!

If you are having this much fun discussing politics, you're doing it wrong.

[surfn1080]

Originally Posted by GatorRade

If you are having this much fun discussing politics, you're doing it wrong.

I was being sarcastic. Sorry if that was not obvious enough.

[surfn1080]

Originally Posted by orangeblueorangeblue

The article is worth reading. Obviously those graphs are also tempered a bit by including state and local governments as well.

There are federal only spending and then there are graphs including both.

This is a good read though. I was hoping Nate Silver was dead wrong on the elections but he proved a lot of people wrong. With that I feel confident in his work until proven other wise.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by surfn1080

I was being sarcastic. Sorry if that was not obvious enough.

Sorry if that sounded insulting, surfn. I'm half-joking, as I imagine you were. And you are definitely not near the top of the enjoy-the-discomfort-o-the-other-side ladder on here.

[trekcid]

It is interesting he used an average rate for expenditures from 1972 - 2011. I would like
to see what the increases were from 2000-2008 and 2008-2012. His statement that not going ahead and increasing the debt ceiling could possibly be very expensive financing the debt going forward. This is the start of a big political push to get congress to give an open end debt ceiling increase to the President.

[108]

everyone knows entitlement and healthcare spending is reaching a tipping point

but why, and what is the right way to reduce it given its importance

there are plenty of systems around the world that spend less and get better outcomes, but we have a system that is beholden to big money from top to bottom

so instead of looking for ways to reduce the cost, our puppets just look for ways to just transfer the costs and to keep the status quo

that being said, we still spend way too much on defense

[orangeblueorangeblue]

Originally Posted by surfn1080

There are federal only spending and then there are graphs including both.

I know. I was talking about the graphs posted in this thread.

Originally Posted by trekcid

It is interesting he used an average rate for expenditures from 1972 - 2011.

Yeah, I actually think this makes the data somewhat useless, as it presents the "no kidding" analysis that the introduction of Medicaid/Medicare increased our healthcare budgetary increases more than anything else. Shocking.

I would like
to see what the increases were from 2000-2008 and 2008-2012.

Same here. Don't have time to do it today, but maybe I will in the coming week.

[G8trGr8t]

Originally Posted by trekcid

It is interesting he used an average rate for expenditures from 1972 - 2011. I would like
to see what the increases were from 2000-2008 and 2008-2012. His statement that not going ahead and increasing the debt ceiling could possibly be very expensive financing the debt going forward. This is the start of a big political push to get congress to give an open end debt ceiling increase to the President.

which would open up a large constitutional arguement about whether congress can voluntarily cede powers to the executive branch. that is a slippery slope nobody should want to step on.

[108]

need more detailed info, like what is driving up the costs of healthcare

Doctors, insurers, prescriptions, hospitals, equipment?

we should either have a true free market or a Single Payer

i am unsure why the article completely overlooks the revenue side of entitlement equation, and pretends there is no income stream there. The spending paid by revenue needs to be cancelled out leaving the gap that is unaccounted for..

[108]

this person makes a good point

GeorgiaDem
Georgia

I would like to see Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid spending discussed in terms of population growth, both births and immigration, and the aging of the Baby Boomers. The more people covered by those insurance programs, the more money comes in and goes out, all other factors being equal, right? We know that the healthcare charges by providers keep going up as well. If we are comparing actual dollars spent on all these categories of government spending, spending on so-called "entitlements" will naturally rise with a growing and aging population while the increase in spending on military, infrastructure, debt interest, is not affected by population growth and should not be considered an "apples-to-apples" comparison. Wouldn't it be more accurate to talk about entitlement spending in per capita terms, discounting inflation? I just don't like to see SS, Medicare/Medicaid targeted at the "elephant in the room" just because more people are getting that insurance benefit as they are entitled to. Yes, it's a big pot of money but isn't that mostly because more people are paying into and getting out of it?

[manigordo]

Originally Posted by 108

everyone knows entitlement and healthcare spending is reaching a tipping point

but why, and what is the right way to reduce it given its importance

there are plenty of systems around the world that spend less and get better outcomes, but we have a system that is beholden to big money from top to bottom

so instead of looking for ways to reduce the cost, our puppets just look for ways to just transfer the costs and to keep the status quo

that being said, we still spend way too much on defense

The defense graph would look interesting if ti were the gross expenditures against the rest of the world during the same period.

The fools in this country believe that we won the cold war because we were morally superior. We won because the Soviets had a false economy and we bankrupted them on defense. What we fail to see is that we are the same course because too many have used the defense of the country as a cover to enrich themselves. THE SAME IS TRUE OF HEALTHCARE..

[bluelang]

The chart is growth rate, not gross spending. Our population is again, of course healthcare and old-people-related expenses are going to grow.

[G8trGr8t]

Originally Posted by 108

need more detailed info, like what is driving up the costs of healthcare

Doctors, insurers, prescriptions, hospitals, equipment?

we should either have a true free market or a Single Payer

i am unsure why the article completely overlooks the revenue side of entitlement equation, and pretends there is no income stream there. The spending paid by revenue needs to be cancelled out leaving the gap that is unaccounted for..

drug costs - remove limitations on medicare and medicaid bargaining

end of life health care - get real about hospice and death panels

defensive medicine - tort reform

lifestyle choices - higher costs for those that make poor lifestyle choices

fraud - allow for private companies to root it out for a percentage. change the 30 day autopay requirement

0care addressed none of these. they have tried to go after fraud a little more but they are jsut scratching the surface. tax refund fraud is rampant and now they are going to let the irs regulate health $$...

[manigordo]

Originally Posted by bluelang

The chart is growth rate, not gross spending. Our population is again, of course healthcare and old-people-related expenses are going to grow.

Doesn't dispel the fact that both systems are gluttonous and will ruin America. An older population is a challenge; not the reason.

[wgbgator]

The costs of shifting the burden of these costs of caring for the elderly back on the population would be pretty devastating to the economy. The government's role for "entitlements" is clear in a world where most adult people have to work for someone else to earn a living (and can't stay home and care for a sick or aging relative), and a single breadwinner paradigm is no longer around (with the decline of union bargaining power and wages in general). That's not to say these services couldnt be delivered at a lower cost or more efficient manner, but I don't think there is a serious case to be made for eliminating them or severely cutting them.

[ArtVandelay]

Nate Silver lost my respect when he predicted the Super Bowl incorrectly...

[surfn1080]

Originally Posted by GatorRade

Sorry if that sounded insulting, surfn. I'm half-joking, as I imagine you were. And you are definitely not near the top of the enjoy-the-discomfort-o-the-other-side ladder on here.

haha all is good and i knew you were as well. I take all things in life with a grain of salt :P

In all seriousness, i wish both sides would come up with an agreement to get this fixed. I am not the person to pretend both sides don't have incompetent people. I have conservative values but I have little faith in man leading men.