Gator Country

GatorRade · 01-20-2013, 08:08 AM

Louisville's defensive efficiency rating has been astounding all season, hovering around 0.80 points allowed per opponent possession (ppp). If they finished the season with that number, they would rate as the most efficient defensive team since Pomeroy started his analysis in 2003. An average top end-of-season defensive efficiency is around 0.84 ppp, and currently right now the record rating would be Kansas' 2007 team, which allowed 0.822 ppp (for reference, the 2006 and 2007 Gators gave up 0.87 ppp). Suffice it to say, anything under 0.85 ppp is exceptional.

Well, as of today, 1/20/12, here are KenPom's top five defenses:

1 Florida 0.808
2 Louisville 0.809
3 Syracuse 0.834
4 Oklahoma St 0.835
5 Duke 0.835

Who knows what the future will bring, but we can say for sure that the past didn't bring many points for Gator opponents.

GatorPlanet · 01-20-2013, 08:15 AM

It's still too early to talk about NCAA seedings, but I'm gonna do it anyway. The three best defensive teams out there appear to me to be (not in any order) UF, Louisville, and Syracuse. The way these guys are playing, all three are looking like #1 seeds. If UF ends up not a #1 seed--which is fine with me--I sincerely hope that we're not placed in Syracuse's region. Their length and athleticism in that zone defense will make them a very difficult out.

gatorbogey · 01-20-2013, 08:31 AM

gator zone this season is much improved
man defense is good as well.
was fun to follow SW fighting thru the screens and what not...KB too following his man. that's one thing you don't always see when watching a game on tv. the effort the team is playing w/, the help defense, the rotations, the switches, it's like a symphony of utter delight!

our metrics: sagarin and kenpom are not only #1 seed quality, but are in line w/ being THE top #1 seed of the four #1 seeds [ right now].

rserina · 01-20-2013, 10:18 AM

Interesting. The defensive statistics aren't really determinative for a title run (I always go with offensive balance as the key feature), but they are a nice start and I think they correlate very well with regular season performance and consequently seeding. Not sure where I wold seed us right now. You can't penalize Florida for playing in this season's SEC, but you have to account for it and that may be reason enough to think of us as more of a 2.

ufgator4ever · 01-20-2013, 10:46 AM

While it's been impressive, that stat could become less and less meaningful as the season goes on, as the Gators play some awful SEC teams and Louisville plays in the Big East.
As mentioned before, by others as well, this team's post season will likely be determined by crunch time performance and a go to guy. Hopefully, a few of the SEC games will give them practice for closing out a single digit lead in the last 5-6 minutes - which has been their downfall the last two years.

GatorRade · 01-20-2013, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rserina

Interesting. The defensive statistics aren't really determinative for a title run (I always go with offensive balance as the key feature), but they are a nice start and I think they correlate very well with regular season performance and consequently seeding. Not sure where I wold seed us right now. You can't penalize Florida for playing in this season's SEC, but you have to account for it and that may be reason enough to think of us as more of a 2.

Phil's thread from a few days ago showed Luke Wynn's analysis of defensive efficiency and tourney performance.

Quote:

Only five teams ranked worse than 25th in defensive efficiency have made the Final Four -- and only two of those teams were outside the top 50. And when it comes to the Elite Eight, only three teams ranked worse than 80th in DE have made it. See for yourself:

Read More: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/col...#ixzz2IWyIYrDM

Of course this doesn't mean that a high defensive efficiency means you will definitely make a deep run, but I'm not surprised to see this correlation. If we are going to use stats, probably KenPom's overall rating (which obviously takes into account both offense and defense) is going to be among our best bets. But regardless of it's title implications, I think our defensive rating is worth noting.

GatorRade · 01-20-2013, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ufgator4ever

While it's been impressive, that stat could become less and less meaningful as the season goes on, as the Gators play some awful SEC teams and Louisville plays in the Big East.
As mentioned before, by others as well, this team's post season will likely be determined by crunch time performance and a go to guy. Hopefully, a few of the SEC games will give them practice for closing out a single digit lead in the last 5-6 minutes - which has been their downfall the last two years.

All stats are somewhat meaningless, but I am pretty sure that KenPom does adjust for strength of offenses faced. Missouri has a pretty high offensive rating, so I think this is what accounted for our big jump.

But what you and I are really interested in is the tourney, and I certainly don't think it hurts the B10 and BE that they get to play against some tough teams before tourney time.

demosthenes · 01-20-2013, 11:18 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorRade

Phil's thread from a few days ago showed Luke Wynn's analysis of defensive efficiency and tourney performance.

Of course this doesn't mean that a high defensive efficiency means you will definitely make a deep run, but I'm not surprised to see this correlation. If we are going to use stats, probably KenPom's overall rating (which obviously takes into account both offense and defense) is going to be among our best bets. But regardless of it's title implications, I think our defensive rating is worth noting.

What I take away from that chart is that most teams are pretty good at both.

However, 7 out of 10 national champions were ranked in the top 2 on offense.

The 07-08 and 03-04 Final Fours were damn tough.

rserina · 01-20-2013, 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by demosthenes

What I take away from that chart is that most teams are pretty good at both.

However, 7 out of 10 national champions were ranked in the top 2 on offense.

Very true. It is probably fair to say that you can't win it without being good defensively, but being good defensively won't win it for you. That's why I've always thought balance is the key. When you are facing entirely different teams with one day of prep, likely teams you have not played that entire year or in preceding seasons, you have to be able to switch approaches on a moment's notice. The teams that are more balanced, not just i terms of offense and defense, but the ones that can do different things well on the same end of the court are in much better position to be effective.

Mayhem41 · 01-20-2013, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rserina

Very true. It is probably fair to say that you can't win it without being good defensively, but being good defensively won't win it for you. That's why I've always thought balance is the key. When you are facing entirely different teams with one day of prep, likely teams you have not played that entire year or in preceding seasons, you have to be able to switch approaches on a moment's notice. The teams that are more balanced, not just i terms of offense and defense, but the ones that can do different things well on the same end of the court are in much better position to be effective.

This is why you really have to like UF's versatility, particularly on the defensive end of the floor.

Has anyone looked at Offensive and Defensive differential and how that correlates to deep tourny runs? Of course SOS would be a factor that could wreck that stat.

diamondted13 · 01-20-2013, 12:51 PM

So which coach gets the bulk of the credit for our defensive prowess this season? I know when Shyatt was here he was generally considered our "defensive coordinator" so to speak. I know Burno is new to the staff this year, and perhaps McCall has taken on more responsibilities. Does anyone know which, if any, of our coaches is in charge of defensive drills, game planning, etc? Is it more of a collective effort this year by the coaching staff? Or am I overrating the coaching aspect and it's more a case that we just have much better defensive personnel this year (addition by subtraction with Walker gone, Wilbekin playing more minutes as a result, etc.). It's not as if we were bad defensively the past couple years, but this is a such a statistically significant improvement.

HALLGATOR · 01-20-2013, 01:59 PM

The Gators can only control how they play and through that the wins they compile. There's just nothing they can do to the overall rankings of their opponents except give them one more loss. In the end as long as the team keeps winning everything else takes care of itself.

corpgator · 01-20-2013, 06:25 PM

#2 in offense as well. Not too shabby balance wise.

GatorLurker · 01-20-2013, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by corpgator

#2 in offense as well. Not too shabby balance wise.

I am sure that Billy will have them working on improving to overtake Michigan.

themistocles · 01-20-2013, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by diamondted13

So which coach gets the bulk of the credit for our defensive prowess this season? I know when Shyatt was here he was generally considered our "defensive coordinator" so to speak. I know Burno is new to the staff this year, and perhaps McCall has taken on more responsibilities. Does anyone know which, if any, of our coaches is in charge of defensive drills, game planning, etc? Is it more of a collective effort this year by the coaching staff? Or am I overrating the coaching aspect and it's more a case that we just have much better defensive personnel this year (addition by subtraction with Walker gone, Wilbekin playing more minutes as a result, etc.). It's not as if we were bad defensively the past couple years, but this is a such a statistically significant improvement.

Probably a decent portion of the improvement may be attributable to nothing other than having 7 upper classmen who have played and practiced together for between 3 and 4 years.

Coaching, however, is absolutely vital, but rather than the addition of a coach it may also reflect to perhaps a large extent, the Blend/Chemistry of the Coaches with the Players.

**regurgigator** · 01-20-2013, 10:25 PM

People are really starting to praise this team as being very good defensively. That said, I think most of those people are missing the boat, because I think this is one of the great defensive teams I've ever seen in college ball - despite not having the great shot-blocker (like a Noah) to protect the rim.

I haven't watched Syracuse or Louisville enough to take a stance on whether they're as good defensively as the Gators, but I would doubt it considering how historically great of a defensive team I think the Gators are. In the few minutes of the Louisville-Syracuse game that I watched, it looked like good solid defense was being played, but nothing extraordinary.

I think our defense is so good primarily because of the personnel we have with individually outstanding defensive players like Yeguete, Wilbekin, Boynton and Prather. Plus, it's certainly helped that we have so many upperclassmen playing that have been coached to commit to defense for so many years by Billy and staff.