I thought the stock market was supposed to do poorly

[gatorman_07732]

The economy is not healthy and the trading volume is not exactly very high with respect to pre 2008 levels. Don't think its not vulnerable and can't tank at any time. All it will take is the student loan bubble bursting or something of the like. We are treading on thin ice.

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by MastaG8r

Uhh...yeah I noticed I don't get all those solicitations for new credit cards and balance transfer offers anymore, even though my credit is as good as ever. I guess that means the economy's kicking ass!



This "logic" reminds me of one of those presidential debates when 0bama tried to say that the reason gas prices are double what they were when he took office is because the economy is doing so much better.

So what do you suppose the reason for the price of gas being more than cut in half between mid-September and mid-December 2008?

http://ycharts.com/indicators/gas_price

[mastoidbone]

some more detail on why profits are high (thus stock prices)---it's the deficits!!!!

Profits = Investment – Household Savings – Government Savings – Foreign Savings + Dividends


the details on the formula
http://www.levyforecast.com/assets/Profits.pdf

[mastoidbone]

comparing corporate profits to the inverse of household and government savings. Indeed deficits are a MAJOR driver of corp profits.

[dangolegators]

Originally Posted by MastaG8r

Uhh...yeah I noticed I don't get all those solicitations for new credit cards and balance transfer offers anymore, even though my credit is as good as ever. I guess that means the economy's kicking ass!



This "logic" reminds me of one of those presidential debates when 0bama tried to say that the reason gas prices are double what they were when he took office is because the economy is doing so much better.

You know what 'very anecdotal' means?

As for the Obama claim, it is well established that gas prices are highly correlated to the state of the economy. That is not 'anecdotal'. Obama was correct in that one of the major factors in higher gas prices is higher demand.

[ncgatr1]

Originally Posted by rivergator

Yep. Unemployment was going to skyrocket. Stock market was going to crash. All the business owners in the country were going to shut down and going on welfare and food stamps, because life is so much easier that way.

Nobody said the unemployment was going to skyrocket, it just not going to get any better any time soon. More antics from the left on their failed economic policies.

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by ncgatr1

Nobody said the unemployment was going to skyrocket, it just not going to get any better any time soon. More antics from the left on their failed economic policies.

Quote from the thread he linked:

Unemployment will surely rise.

[wargunfan]

Originally Posted by ncgatr1
Nobody said the unemployment was going to skyrocket, it just not going to get any better any time soon. More antics from the left on their failed economic policies.
Quote from the thread he linked:

Quote:
Unemployment will surely rise.


Not if the OA can implement new ways to measure it.

[madgator]

I'll give you anecdotal....but definitely makes me shutter

direct quotes from a recent conversation with an MIT economics degree holder.


"do you think the economic picture is poor?"

Yes

"are you an economist?"

No

"Well, I am and no matter how bad you think it is, it's much much worse."



The conclusion of the conversation is that the policies in place are only conclusive to long term failure.....it is inevitable. The only thing keeping it together is a cooperative game based upon a fiat standard that means nothing.

if anyone has educated themselves on anything on the eventual and inevitable crash is that there will be a HUGE run up in securities over a period of time that will eventually come crashing down. Don't be shocked if you see the Dow rise up to as high as 25 or even 30k before it drops all the way back down to 6-8k.

when this happens.....I don't know. But it will happen.

[mastoidbone]

well----unemployment is up--depending on how you count it----as labor participation rate drops---'official unemployment is stable' while ACTUAL americans NOT working who could work climbs......new obama normal is what it is starting to be called.

Europe has shown us--as govt spending eats up a significant part of GDP---long term high unemployment is the norm---and Obama has GREATLY increased spending as a % of GDP vs our historic norm. As long as this is true----many many americans will be unable to work..and be paid for doing so....

[fredsanford]

Originally Posted by mastoidbone

well----unemployment is up--depending on how you count it----as labor participation rate drops---'official unemployment is stable' while ACTUAL americans NOT working who could work climbs......new obama normal is what it is starting to be called.

Europe has shown us--as govt spending eats up a significant part of GDP---long term high unemployment is the norm---and Obama has GREATLY increased spending as a % of GDP vs our historic norm. As long as this is true----many many americans will be unable to work..and be paid for doing so....

Wrong.

This is the effect of not having an artificial bubble to boost the economy. People can't find jobs because unpatriotic CEOs would rather hire Indians than Americans.

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by mastoidbone

well----unemployment is up--depending on how you count it----as labor participation rate drops---'official unemployment is stable' while ACTUAL americans NOT working who could work climbs......new obama normal is what it is starting to be called.

Europe has shown us--as govt spending eats up a significant part of GDP---long term high unemployment is the norm---and Obama has GREATLY increased spending as a % of GDP vs our historic norm. As long as this is true----many many americans will be unable to work..and be paid for doing so....

Actually, it appears that we have been shrinking the percentage of government spending since 2009. Probably why we have seen a decline in government employment of about 2 million workers under Obama.

[mastoidbone]

government spending as % of gdp is at MUCH higher levers then historic norms---this is fine with Obams....it is not fine with long term growth and employment---ask europe.

Our norm has been 35-38%---under Obama it has NEVER been under 40% and he is fine with that. In fact I suspect he would have no problem with 50%. Ask YOURSELF--what should it be???In france it is well over 50%---and i think obama thinks that if used well---that is fine. It has also been shown by Noble prize winners that one consequence of BIG govt spending is HIGH long term unemployment----which is an era we have now entered and WONT improve until we shrink govt spending.

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by mastoidbone

government spending as % of gdp is at MUCH higher levers then historic norms---this is fine with Obams....it is not fine with long term growth and employment---ask europe.

Our norm has been 35-38%---under Obama it has NEVER been under 40% and he is fine with that. In fact I suspect he would have no problem with 50%. Ask YOURSELF--what should it be???In france it is well over 50%---and i think obama thinks that if used well---that is fine. It has also been shown by Noble prize winners that one consequence of BIG govt spending is HIGH long term unemployment----which is an era we have now entered and WONT improve until we shrink govt spending.

Interestingly, you are attempting to blame Obama for state and local spending. I am not sure what role you think he has in that, but he doesn't control either. As I said, the percentage of GDP that is government spending has been declining since he came into office. Initial austerity is often counter-productive with the presence of a social safety net, which will be called into greater demand with the decline i GDP. So he has slowly lowered the government's percentage of GDP since taking office in order to lessen the short-term impact while getting it back to historic levels in the long-term.

[gtr2x]

Hopefully all these folks that keep predicting a market collapse are short sellers. Might as well put your money where your mouth is. If you are correct you will be rich, if not you can always blame it on the Fed, Obama, etc.

[mastoidbone]

more then 3 years after recession--under obama---labor participation rate plummets---masking REAL unemployment as measured by broader measures.

Notice what LPR USUALLY does after recession---under clinton or RR---ONLY under expansive obama and bush spending and UNLIMITED unemployment payments----does it sink.

[mastoidbone]

I think that MASSIVE govt spending---which is COUNTER to our historic norm---is the ROOT cause of persistant long term unemployment.
Your base line of spending is the root cause of your MISUNDERSTANDING---compare Obama spending to HISTORIC norms---especially now more then 3 years AFTER recession---it is still at POST WAR highs----
I would compare Obama not to 2009 as base---but say 1970-2008 as norm.

[mastoidbone]

traditionally FED spending has been 18-23%---
while under obama that has been exploded to levels RARELY seen in US history.

[Gatorrick22]

Originally Posted by mdgator05

Amazing how every year the judgment day moves back another year.

If you still think the 47 million that can't even pay for their own food are going to come up with their own cash to pay for their healthcare than you'll probably be shocked when everyone's taxes, co-pay and insurance rates go through the roof......... in 2014.

You/me/us and all the other non 47 million working people in the U.S. will be footing that bill for them. We'll all be supporting those indigent people's free insurance through higher taxes.

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by Gatorrick22

If you still think the 47 million that can't even pay for their own food are going to come up with their own cash to pay for their healthcare than you'll probably be shocked when everyone's taxes, co-pay and insurance rates go through the roof......... in 2014.

You/me/us and all the other non 47 million working people in the U.S. will be footing that bill for them. We'll all be supporting those indigent people's free insurance through higher taxes.

We already do. It is called Medicaid.