I thought the stock market was supposed to do poorly

[dangolegators]

I encountered some very anecdotal evidence of the economy improving today. I've been meaning to take a trip to Vegas for a while now, so I finally checked some flights. The cheapest I could find from Austin to Vegas was $450 round trip, which is about twice what I'm used to paying. Also, I'm not getting those free room offers for Vegas like I was few years ago, when I was getting tons of free room offers. Again, obviously anecdotal, but one measure of how much money folks have to waste is how well Vegas is doing and how much it costs to get there.

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

The word, right after Obama won his 2nd term, centered around the stock market being in free fall and was going to continue to do badly. I also recall quite well that there were those a few years back who claimed the market would go down to around 5500 in the near future and and it never happened. I am beginning to believe you guys know about as much about where the market is going as I do. And that is very little.

Today the S&P hit a 5 year high; the Dow at this time is up over a 100 points and sits at around 13,600 while the Nasdaq is up over 21 points. This came about due to positive new on jobs and housing.

In with the good there is always a bit of not so good and the same holds with this date. Do these people not know something that some of you do?

It's all about the fast money through Fed manipulation of interest rates.

Investors are smart, the market is close to efficient, Obama winning has been priced in for a long time...even before the election.

And Obama as POTUS is not good for the economy. But the truth is the gap between Romney and Obama isn't that huge compared to other market forces.

For example the Obama/Romney gap doesn't come close to how the Fed is giving away billions of dollars. Manti Te'o's girlfriend could have been POTUS and the stock market would have increased with this Fed policy.

I'm in the business.

[Burke]

Two things that have caught my attention:

1. The Chinese have not been bitching about all this money printing like they were doing when it first started a few years ago; and,

2. The Chinese central bank and other banks around the world are buying gold.

My theory: Everyone knows that our fiat currency as well as other fiat currencies around the world are going to crash, because the only way they can "pay" their obligations is with printed money. Politicians, their friends, and everyone with half a brain knows this and are making their investment decisions accordingly.

Including those central banks.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by ChartsandGrafs

This thread reminds me of all the people back in 2005 who were crowing about how great the housing market was.

If you were older, it might also remind you of all the people back in 1940 crowing about how great the market was. That's the thing about market booms: if we could predict when they were bubbles, there would be no bubbles.

[HALLGATOR]

Originally Posted by egator1245

Give it time!

That was the same answer I was given around 4 years ago when I brought back up the projection of the market going to around 5500. I guess if you give it long enough it is bound to go back down again but the truth of the matter is the predictive powers I have seen on here are...let's say, not really impressive.

dangole brought up gambling casinos and that is what I think of when I think of Wall Street.....just one big casino where people play wild and loose with theirs and other people's money.

[Minister_of_Information]

Mohammed El Arian, a man worth listening to:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100387868

The "new normal" of slow economic growth, high unemployment and government debt problems could be over soon, Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Thursday.

El-Erian, CEO and co-CIO of the firm, coined the phrase. "We said in 2009: three to five years," he told "Squawk Box," referring to how long he thought the phenomenon would last.

In the years since his proclamation, El-Erian said, "The 'new normal' allowed time for the corporate sector to heal, for the housing sector to heal, and that's positive. That's how you come out of [it]."

He was not ready in Thursday's interview to say when the "new normal" would end, but he did lay out what might happen when it does.

It's important to remember that the economy is self-healing, given enough time. We may be finally beginning to pull out of a slow-growth environment into more of a Goldilocks redux.

Possibly. When you're certain, that's when everyone is already invested.

[HALLGATOR]

The housing market is a key ingredient in the recovery of the job market. I don't know how we are looking on future foreclosures or if we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for this sector but there has been some good signs the worst may be behind us.

[JerseyGator01]

Florida foreclosures have soared recently.

Stock market hasn't done squat over the last five years.

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

The housing market is a key ingredient in the recovery of the job market. I don't know how we are looking on future foreclosures or if we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for this sector but there has been some good signs the worst may be behind us.

Only in some sectors. By in large, the housing market has been very, very weak.

[HALLGATOR]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

Only in some sectors. By in large, the housing market has been very, very weak.

Do you think weak is a relative word when we use it to describe where we are vs where we have been

Take the following for instance. Seems to me there are signs we are headed in a positive direction.

Investors will get a fresh update on the state of the U.S. housing market later on Wednesday, with an index of sentiment among home builders set to show a tickup, though not over that key reading of 50 that shows more builders are seeing selling conditions as better, not worse. Read: What to watch on U.S. economy on Wednesday

Ahead of that, Goldman Sachs offered up its latest thoughts on that key sector in a research note. Their view: Housing is likely to 'outperform' otherwise sluggish macroeconomic financials that they expect in 2013. Goldman admits that it's harder to identify downside risks to a highly cyclical sector such as housing, but easier to pick out upside risks, which they do.

They revisited 'housing stabilization', which was among their top market themes for 2013, coming up with four reasons why outperformance in this sector is coming.
.............................

Pent-up demand is coming back. Recent declines in formations of households among the young and immigrants is likely to prove transitory and further boost housing demand, said Goldman. Of course, they said some of this improvement will depend on the strength of economic growth, which could benefit the rental as well as owner market. Even so, some of that 'pent-up' demand wants to own homes.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/more-u...095000556.html

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

Do you think weak is a relative word when we use it to describe where we are vs where we have been

So; "the housing market still sucks, but slightly less than it did!"

Small comfort.

[HALLGATOR]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

So; "the housing market still sucks, but slightly less than it did!"

Small comfort.

From where we were I would say there is comfort in signs we are moving out of the lows we experienced. I think perhaps there are those who are a bit concerned the economy will improve over the next 4 years. And by concerned I mean their concern is more likened to apprehension.

[ChartsandGrafs]

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

From where we were I would say there is comfort in signs we are moving out of the lows we experienced. I think perhaps there are those who are a bit concerned the economy will improve over the next 4 years. And by concerned I mean their concern is more likened to apprehension.

How is the U.S. economy going to improve, exactly? With more government debt propping it up? More inflation? Higher taxes? More regulation? A stock market detached from reality?

Any improvement people think they will see in the economy will be based on illusion.

[HALLGATOR]

Originally Posted by ChartsandGrafs

How is the U.S. economy going to improve, exactly? With more government debt propping it up? More inflation? Higher taxes? More regulation? A stock market detached from reality?

Any improvement people think they will see in the economy will be based on illusion.

Hey, they always have you to keep them informed of their illusions, so all is well.

[ChartsandGrafs]

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

Hey, they always have you to keep them informed of their illusions, so all is well.

Pretty much.

[Gatorrick22]

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

The word, right after Obama won his 2nd term, centered around the stock market being in free fall and was going to continue to do badly. I also recall quite well that there were those a few years back who claimed the market would go down to around 5500 in the near future and and it never happened. I am beginning to believe you guys know about as much about where the market is going as I do. And that is very little.

Today the S&P hit a 5 year high; the Dow at this time is up over a 100 points and sits at around 13,600 while the Nasdaq is up over 21 points. This came about due to positive new on jobs and housing.

In with the good there is always a bit of not so good and the same holds with this date. Do these people not know something that some of you do?

Has Obama-care kicked in fully yet? Are there still several corporations and special interest groups still getting exemptions from Obama-care - Yes? 2014 will be the year we all find out what our economy is going to look like for decades to come.

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by Gatorrick22

Has Obama-care kicked in fully yet? Are there still several corporations and special interest groups still getting exemptions from Obama-care - Yes? 2014 will be the year we all find out what our economy is going to look like for decades to come.

Amazing how every year the judgment day moves back another year.

[tegator80]

Mostly an infomercial, but sobering.

http://w3.newsmax.com/a/aftershockb/...mo_code=FC57-1

[neisgator]

Originally Posted by dangolegators

I encountered some very anecdotal evidence of the economy improving today. I've been meaning to take a trip to Vegas for a while now, so I finally checked some flights. The cheapest I could find from Austin to Vegas was $450 round trip, which is about twice what I'm used to paying. Also, I'm not getting those free room offers for Vegas like I was few years ago, when I was getting tons of free room offers. Again, obviously anecdotal, but one measure of how much money folks have to waste is how well Vegas is doing and how much it costs to get there.

I just got offered the Luxor an $29 a night. Never seen that low.

[MastaG8r]

Originally Posted by dangolegators

I encountered some very anecdotal evidence of the economy improving today. I've been meaning to take a trip to Vegas for a while now, so I finally checked some flights. The cheapest I could find from Austin to Vegas was $450 round trip, which is about twice what I'm used to paying. Also, I'm not getting those free room offers for Vegas like I was few years ago, when I was getting tons of free room offers. Again, obviously anecdotal, but one measure of how much money folks have to waste is how well Vegas is doing and how much it costs to get there.

Uhh...yeah I noticed I don't get all those solicitations for new credit cards and balance transfer offers anymore, even though my credit is as good as ever. I guess that means the economy's kicking ass!



This "logic" reminds me of one of those presidential debates when 0bama tried to say that the reason gas prices are double what they were when he took office is because the economy is doing so much better.