Jim Hansen on the standstill

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

.....2012 as having practically the same temperature as 2011, significantly lower than the maximum reached in 2010. These short-term global fluctuations are associated principally with natural oscillations of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures summarized in the Nino index in the lower part of the figure. 2012 is nominally the 9th warmest year, but it is indistinguishable in rank with several other years, as shown by the error estimate for comparing nearby years. Note that the 10 warmest years in the record all occurred since 1998.

I am sure everyone knows who Hansen is.

So much for the claim that 2012 being the warmest year on record;

The standstill

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

I am sure everyone knows who Hansen is.

So much for the claim that 2012 being the warmest year on record;

The standstill

It was the warmest year in the United States. He is discussing an early measure of global temperatures, which are the 9th highest ever, ensuring that the top 10 are all in the past 15 years again. He also said:

The continuing planetary imbalance and the rapid increase of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel assure that global warming will continue on decadal time scales. Moreover, our interpretation of the larger role of unforced variability in temperature change of the past decade suggests that global temperature will rise significantly in the next few years as the tropics moves inevitably to the next El Nino phase.

[mdgator05]

A relevant portion of Hansen's paper that explains why we are likely to see events such as the hottest year in the United States during the overall 9th hottest year globally:

The high current global temperature is sufficient to have a noticeable effect on the frequency of occurrence of extreme warm anomalies. The left-most "bell curve" in Fig. 3 is the frequency distribution of summer-average temperature anomalies during the base period 1951-1980, in units of the local standard deviation1 of seasonal-average temperature.

The observational data show that the frequency of unusually warm anomalies has been increasing decade by decade over the past three decades. Perhaps the most important change is the emergence of extremely hot outliers, defined as anomalies exceeding 3 standard deviations. Such extreme summer heat anomalies occurred in 2010 over a large region in Eastern Europe including Moscow, in 2011 in Oklahoma, Texas and Northern Mexico, and in 2012 in the United States in part of the central Rockies and Great Plains.

The location of these extreme anomalies is dependent upon variable meteorological patterns, but the decade-by-decade movement of the bell curve to the right, and the emergence of an increased number of extreme warm anomalies, is an expression of increasing global warming. Some seasons continue to be unusually cool even by the standard of average 1951-1980 climate, but the "climate dice" are now sufficiently loaded that an observant person should notice that unusually warm seasons are occurring much more frequently than they did a few decades earlier.

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Originally Posted by mdgator05

It was the warmest year in the United States. :

oH. So then we are talking about weather, not climate.

Carry on then.

[mdgator05]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

oH. So then we are talking about weather, not climate.

Carry on then.

Again, it is apparent you didn't read Hansen's paper.

[GatorRade]

I think I am failing to understand the point of the thread here. Was the goal simply to point out that 2012 wasn't the warmest year on record?

[wgbgator]

2012 was the warmest year on record in the US, but not globally (that was 2010).

[The_Ultimate_Gator]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

I am sure everyone knows who Hansen is.

The Muppets guy? I thought he was dead.

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Originally Posted by GatorRade

I think I am failing to understand the point of the thread here. Was the goal simply to point out that 2012 wasn't the warmest year on record?

No. Actually it was a continuation of the thread where we talked about the recent evidence that the warming trend is abating and has been for quite some time. At least as long as the warming trend so many people are so hysterical over.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

No. Actually it was a continuation of the thread where we talked about the recent evidence that the warming trend is abating and has been for quite some time. At least as long as the warming trend so many people are so hysterical over.

I see. You are pushing the hypothesis that the warming has stopped. Does this mean that you disagree that decadal cycles, like ENSO and NAO, can cause shorter term global temperature variations?

[wygator]

Here is the US decadal average temperatures based on the raw, unadjusted GHCN temperature data:



Here is NOAA's acknowledged adjustments to the temperature record through 2000.



http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2...ade-in-the-us/

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/...shcn.html#QUAL

[wargunfan]

Are the temperature recording stations still located in parking lots and on top of buildings?

[Dreamliner]

Or, let's just go ahead and consider, for the sake of argument, that global temperatures are rising of late ? What it a slightly warmer earth is a net-gain ? Do we still get to run around like frightened women ?

[wygator]

Originally Posted by wargunfan

Are the temperature recording stations still located in parking lots and on top of buildings?

Some are. The irony in the NOAA graph above is that you would think with growing urbanization of cities and airports around temperature stations, that the overall average adjustment the second half of the 20th century would need to be downward due to increasing urban heat island effect.

But they did the exact opposite, adjusting temperatures upwards. Though this graph doesn't reflect it, they've continued to make these upwards adjustments since 2000.

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Originally Posted by GatorRade

I see. You are pushing the hypothesis that the warming has stopped. Does this mean that you disagree that decadal cycles, like ENSO and NAO, can cause shorter term global temperature variations?

No hypothesis was offered by me. No theory explaining why the abatement of the warming trend occurred was proffered by me or Dr. Curry. She merely reported the facts, which I passed along. To wit;


The warming trend has abated. Everyone on all sides of the argument agrees with those sets of fact. Different explanations are offered for phenomenon. Dr. Hansen offered his.

One encouraging thing that is happening now, in light of these new facts, is that the Dr. Hansens of the world are now being forced to publicly consider the totality of the causes of changes to global temperatures. The "natural" causes of global climate change weren't much of a consideration 10 years ago among the AGW crowd. They are finally considering the 800 pound gorilla that has been in the room for quite some time.

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Originally Posted by Dreamliner

Or, let's just go ahead and consider, for the sake of argument, that global temperatures are rising of late ? What it a slightly warmer earth is a net-gain ? Do we still get to run around like frightened women ?

History has demonstrated that humans seem do better in warmer climates than colder ones. For the fairly simple reasons that food production is easier and finding/making adequate shelter and clothing is easier.

[fredsanford]

Originally Posted by The_Ultimate_Gator

The Muppets guy? I thought he was dead.

No, but lots of puppets are chiming in.

[wygator]

Originally Posted by fredsanford

No, but lots of puppets are chiming in.

Is that all you've got, Fred...insults?

Any comment on the graphs posted above?

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

You don't know fred very well do you wygator?

[wygator]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

You don't know fred very well do you wygator?

I've seen plenty of his work. Just have to call them out sometimes.