There is a God, Denver Management...

[sflagator]

Tebow and Kaep are pretty close statistically. Compare Tebow 2011 (14 games) with Kaep 2012 (13 games) and they are roughly equivalent in most categories. Tebow had more 3 more TD's (rushing and passing) and 2 more turnovers. Kaep threw for 15 more yards per game than Tebow, but Tebow rushed for 15 more yards per game than Kaep. Kaep had slightly more total passing yards in one less game, but combined yardage gives Tebow a 150 yd advantage.

The glaring difference, and the reason Tebow scares coaches and GM's to death, is completion percentage. Kaep is at 62.4%, Tebow at 46.5%.

Remember that teams average 35 passing downs per game, that 11 or so are 3rd downs, and that teams only average 4-5 scoring drives per game. That means that, in the typical NFL universe, Tebow will average 5 more incompletions than Kaep. That doesn't seem like much, but compounded with the fact that Tebow threw the ball less than the average 35 times per game, and the statistical difference is magnified somewhat. If Tebow's inaccuracy kills one potential scoring drive a game, that's the difference between a 10 win season and a 4 win season.

If Tebow had a good yard/pass attempt number, he could overcome this deficiency, but he doesn't. He averaged about 6.5 yards per attempt, which was low for the NFL.

I have no doubt Tebow can improve his completion percentage and yards per attempt (actually, fixing one should fix the other). First, I think he needs to lose weight. He was 236 at UF, now he's bulked up to 250, and he's starting to look like a gorilla throwing the ball. Ask Dan Kendra - he'll tell you Tebow is too big.

Second - and I hate to state the obvious - he needs to be in the right offense. Somewhat run heavy, but with enough flexibility for Tebow to pass more often than on 3rd down, and to improvise his way out of trouble. Ironically, something like the Denver offense that finally got an over-the-hill John Elway that Super Bowl ring. In the pass-happy NFL, this is a rare beast.

The problem, once again, is getting a coach and GM to risk their necks on improving Tebow's accuracy. NFL coaches and GM's are more risk adverse than a group of insurance salesmen riding around in a car without seat belts, and the "thin margin" school of wuss coaching (i.e., keep it close with a chance to win in the 4th quarter) isn't going away. Tebow needs a coach who has job security and just doesn't give a damn about taking chances, I can only think of a few (the bros Harbaugh, Bellichick, Tomlin, Payton) and they already have QB's. The only other candidate I can think of is maybe Greg Schiano.

I think it sucks because I believe TT can win in the NFL, but I am thinking he will never get the chance. Honestly, he might be better off moving to another position at this point (and I'm cursing my own name for uttering those words)

[gtr2x]

Originally Posted by Gatorphenom

Steeler's Fan right?

Ha ha. nope, tho I root for them occasionally since they have 3 Gators on the o line.

[gottapanda]

Originally Posted by sflagator

Tebow and Kaep are pretty close statistically. Compare Tebow 2011 (14 games) with Kaep 2012 (13 games) and they are roughly equivalent in most categories. Tebow had more 3 more TD's (rushing and passing) and 2 more turnovers. Kaep threw for 15 more yards per game than Tebow, but Tebow rushed for 15 more yards per game than Kaep. Kaep had slightly more total passing yards in one less game, but combined yardage gives Tebow a 150 yd advantage.

The glaring difference, and the reason Tebow scares coaches and GM's to death, is completion percentage. Kaep is at 62.4%, Tebow at 46.5%.

Remember that teams average 35 passing downs per game, that 11 or so are 3rd downs, and that teams only average 4-5 scoring drives per game. That means that, in the typical NFL universe, Tebow will average 5 more incompletions than Kaep. That doesn't seem like much, but compounded with the fact that Tebow threw the ball less than the average 35 times per game, and the statistical difference is magnified somewhat. If Tebow's inaccuracy kills one potential scoring drive a game, that's the difference between a 10 win season and a 4 win season.

If Tebow had a good yard/pass attempt number, he could overcome this deficiency, but he doesn't. He averaged about 6.5 yards per attempt, which was low for the NFL.

I have no doubt Tebow can improve his completion percentage and yards per attempt (actually, fixing one should fix the other). First, I think he needs to lose weight. He was 236 at UF, now he's bulked up to 250, and he's starting to look like a gorilla throwing the ball. Ask Dan Kendra - he'll tell you Tebow is too big.

Second - and I hate to state the obvious - he needs to be in the right offense. Somewhat run heavy, but with enough flexibility for Tebow to pass more often than on 3rd down, and to improvise his way out of trouble. Ironically, something like the Denver offense that finally got an over-the-hill John Elway that Super Bowl ring. In the pass-happy NFL, this is a rare beast.

The problem, once again, is getting a coach and GM to risk their necks on improving Tebow's accuracy. NFL coaches and GM's are more risk adverse than a group of insurance salesmen riding around in a car without seat belts, and the "thin margin" school of wuss coaching (i.e., keep it close with a chance to win in the 4th quarter) isn't going away. Tebow needs a coach who has job security and just doesn't give a damn about taking chances, I can only think of a few (the bros Harbaugh, Bellichick, Tomlin, Payton) and they already have QB's. The only other candidate I can think of is maybe Greg Schiano.

I think it sucks because I believe TT can win in the NFL, but I am thinking he will never get the chance. Honestly, he might be better off moving to another position at this point (and I'm cursing my own name for uttering those words)

Thanks for the informed, and informative, post. I'd rep if I could.

[horanic]

People are quick to point out 46% completion but how many of those passes were on 1st and 10 or second and 5? Tebow actually was one of the best in the league at converting 3rd and 10+ when PASSING. However people never look deeper into the number other than to say he was a sub 50% passer. Qbs typically convert about 25% of 3rd and 10 or longer and I would venture to 65% of Tebows passing downs were against 3rd and long situations. Fox NEVER opened the playbook until it was hopeless and he was forced to let him pass. Also he didnt try and force it to the reciever in those situations and often just unloaded out of bounds rather than getting the INT (see Ponder). That also sunk his completion percentage but no INTs means you win games. There is a lot more to Tebows completion percentage than just pointing it out as a bad number.

[horanic]

A good example of getting Fox's stupidity out of the way was Tebows QBR in the last 5 minutes of the game where the play book opened....he was the BEST in the league in the last 5 minutes of the game. You cant explain it any other way. Fox called plays that did nothing to help the qb.

[horanic]

Manning is an obvious upgrade but for a very short time...the door is rapidly closing. His zip is dropping off fast and as always one blind side hit and Elway will be looking for another qb.

[elrongator]

I disagree that Manning was/is an upgrade.
Starting over with a gigantic salary difference to replace a developing first round draft pick at Qb entails alot more than throwing the ball around for completions to justify it.
Manning gave Denver about what he delivered most of his pass happy career, a first playoff game loss.

This is the damning fact.
In 8 of his 11 playoff appearances Manning has lost his first playoff game.

That isn't proof he's a legend or hall of fame shoe in, it shows he's not what Tebow has been everywhere he's been given a chance to start...a winner.

[whitelakegator]

Originally Posted by elrongator

I disagree that Manning was/is an upgrade.
Starting over with a gigantic salary difference to replace a developing first round draft pick at Qb entails alot more than throwing the ball around for completions to justify it.
Manning gave Denver about what he delivered most of his pass happy career, a first playoff game loss.

This is the damning fact.
In 8 of his 11 playoff appearances Manning has lost his first playoff game.

That isn't proof he's a legend or hall of fame shoe in, it shows he's not what Tebow has been everywhere he's been given a chance to start...a winner.

I can't stand manning but you may want to check out how tebow did in the last game of the regular season vs the chiefs. Denver needed a win to clinch the afc west title outright. How did tebow respond in that huge game? 6-22 for 60 yds and three points. A loss but they backed in anyhow. Revionist history. The dude has some really really bad games. Maybe if he played the whole game like the last five minutes he would start. Apparently he doesn't practice well nor can he read a defense to save his life.

[Juggernautz]

Am pulling for a Ravens vs Falcons SB!

[rpmGator]

You can say some of us are just Tebow apologists.

But the NFL network is having discussion's on Manning going out in the first round 8 times, also.

They are talking about his lack of arm strength. They are talking about his cold weather record.

They are talking about him being spotted 14 points and still not scoring enough on his O, to win. He had a lot of OT where he was shut out and had the turnover that lost them the game.

This was Manning before the four neck operations. Those guys who played the game are saying you make your money in the regular season, you make your legacy in the playoffs. Their words, not mine.

A lot of us were right on it being futile to bring in Manning. They will need a new QB as time waits for no one. That young QB could have been Tebow, but the threat of him winning the job, no matter how small that could have been, was a worry too large for Elway to keep Tim.

They could have chosen to let Manning teach Tebow, instead they sold Tim for thirty pieces of silver.

Got a felling the ending on this one hasn't been written just yet.

A lot of us were correct from the start. Our foes had our quotes lined up ready to show how wrong we were. Now the NFL network is saying the same things as we did on this very board, when Manning was signed many month's ago.

Scoreboard.

Last, here is another prediction so you can use it later if I am wrong, Tebow will start at QB for an NFL team before all is done. As my dad used to tell me, you can't keep a good man down.

Even when some of our own, kick him when he is.

[gatordee]

I just cannot believe they did not let PM air it out the last 30 seconds. Thank goodness though. Imagine what the headlines would have said if he had got them inside fg range and won it.

[malligator]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

I can't stand manning but you may want to check out how tebow did in the last game of the regular season vs the chiefs. Denver needed a win to clinch the afc west title outright. How did tebow respond in that huge game? 6-22 for 60 yds and three points. A loss but they backed in anyhow. Revionist history. The dude has some really really bad games. Maybe if he played the whole game like the last five minutes he would start. Apparently he doesn't practice well nor can he read a defense to save his life.

Tebow has had 16 starts. One full season. Reading defenses comes with game time. That's one thing that's demonstrably true--he may never improve his throwing mechanics, but he will get better at reading defense.

Manning was an interception throwing machine in the beginning of his career. That's an indication of misreading coverages. The difference is Tebow will tuck it and run instead of forcing a pass for an interception. That seems to be looked down upon by the talking heads, who oddly seem to favor passing even if it's to the wrong team.

[horanic]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

I can't stand manning but you may want to check out how tebow did in the last game of the regular season vs the chiefs. Denver needed a win to clinch the afc west title outright. How did tebow respond in that huge game? 6-22 for 60 yds and three points. A loss but they backed in anyhow. Revionist history. The dude has some really really bad games. Maybe if he played the whole game like the last five minutes he would start. Apparently he doesn't practice well nor can he read a defense to save his life.

You may also want to check out what KC did to Aaron Rodgers during his record setting year last year just 2 weeks before sub 50% passing and just one td and a loss for the Pack. Crennel had KC playing good defense towards the end of the year but a rash of injuries took its toll over time. Also, I wouldn't even begin to comment on what kind of bliss a defensive coordinator/head coach of Fox's bent got from a 7-3 loss versus KC. In fact, he may have indeed convinced himself he actually won the game with a low scoring bore fest like that. It was right up his alley!

We can always site one game but the fact is he has outperformed both Manning and Elway during their first year. Just the facts.