Gator Country

**oxymoron** · 12-18-2012, 08:03 AM

Hopefully we'll be undefeated at home but I expect losses on the road.

co_gator89 · 12-18-2012, 08:12 AM

UK may look pretty average right now, but we will always have a hard time playing there. @Vandy and @Tennessee will be possible losses too even though we are better than both of those teams. I think ultimately Mizzou will be our greatest challenge. All that said, there is absolutely no excuse for not winning the regular season SEC title and being the favorite to win the SEC tourney.

**GothamGator** · 12-18-2012, 08:28 AM

The SEC is down, no doubt about it, and we have a really good team that should be favored in every game. Still, Saturday night's game should demonstrate how hard it is to win them all. A determined opponent, a couple of bounces or official's calls go the other way, and you lose by one.

Plus, the two best teams besides us are UK and Missouri, and we get them both twice. Not to mention that UK will be a lot better by the time we play them in Rupp on March 9.

macaca · 12-18-2012, 09:26 AM

Now that it's an 18 game schedule, going undefeated will be even harder. The Gators have a good chance to win all the home games but I expect them to drop 2 or 3 on the road.

GatorRade · 12-18-2012, 09:58 AM

I'm with the 2-5% crowd. Some of the games we will have 95% chance of winning. Some of them we will have a 55% chance of winning. Sum them all and we end up with something below 5%. Still pretty high actually.

REM08 · 12-18-2012, 10:05 AM

Think it depends on two things.

1 - Do you guys have a game where you shoot 3 for 18 from 3 and, if you do, can you overcome it? Does it come, ironically, against a team that can't seem to miss?

2 - How good are Mizzou and UK by February and March? If Mizzou proves formidable and UK really improves (who knows), can UF win both games on the road?

Considering both of these, I say there's a loss or two in there. You guys win the SEC pretty easy IMO either way.

GatorRade · 12-18-2012, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REM08

You guys win the SEC pretty easy IMO either way.

I don't even think this is assured. Mizzou and Kentucky both have ability. I think Florida should be the favorite, but it might not be easy. I hope you are right though.

Matthanuf06 · 12-18-2012, 12:24 PM

We are heavy favorites to win the SEC, but the undefeated talk is a misapplication of statistics.

We have @Mizzou and @UK, which may be coin flips, and we could probably settle on say a 60% chance for each of those. So you are looking at an under 40% chance of sweeping those games alone, let alone the rest of the schedule. Even if we are 70% favs in some and 80%+ favs in the bulk you are still looking at a 5% chance or so.

That is still really good. We don't need to go undefeated though. We need to only lose 1 or 2, win the SECT and we get a 1 seed. A 2 seed at worst if things around the country break terribly for us. That, while still optimistic, is a reasonable goal, and still really damn good.

gatorfansrule · 12-18-2012, 01:20 PM

Great defensive teams do not have usually have bad defensive days because it only relies on effort (which you as players control) and ability (which you either have or you don't). This is a great defensive team and unlike some of our past teams that relied on shooting (which comes and goes) I think this team has a chance at making it through the SEC schedule unscathed. Especially when you combine how weak the SEC is with the style of ball this team plays. As long as the injury bug doesn't bite I don't think we lose more than 2 games in the SEC.

swampgas44 · 12-18-2012, 01:57 PM

I know all you stats guys, like me, are dying to see what Pomeroy says. Chance of going unbeaten in SEC 11.8%.(16-2). When each game is done individually we win them all.(18-0)
The games with the lowest chance of a win are 3/9 @Ky 59% chance of winning (66-63) and 2/19 @Missouri 73% chance of winning (69-62) You do understand that as the season goes on these percentages will change based on the numbers from previous games. In my personal opinion I like the 16-2 record.

themistocles · 12-18-2012, 02:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skiller

3.14159%

I think you are off by one one millionth.

But close enough for horseshoes & hand grenades.

It is extraordinarily difficult to run the table in basketball even in the weakest conference with the strongest team.

Note that although Ky did that last year during the regular season, yet they lost their 2nd game in the SEC tournament, and they were a very dominant team. This UF team is very good, but not quite as far above most other teams as that one was.

BEH · 12-18-2012, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by themistocles

I think you are off by one one millionth.

But close enough for horseshoes & hand grenades.

It is extraordinarily difficult to run the table in basketball even in the weakest conference with the strongest team.

Note that although Ky did that last year during the regular season, yet they lost their 2nd game in the SEC tournament, and they were a very dominant team. This UF team is very good, but not quite as far above most other teams as that one was.

Not to be picky but Florida was UK second team in the SEC Tourney and UK lost to Vandy in the Championship game.

To my knowledge no SEC team, outside UK, has ever won all games in the SEC regular season. Few have gotten to one loss.

As mentioned above going through the SEC is tough, even in a down year. Plus the SEC has a lot of young talent that will improve as time goes on. Plus as has been pointed out prior, Florida has to play Missouri and Kentucky twice.

REM08 · 12-18-2012, 04:41 PM

I have a question. How many of you want to go undefeated through the SEC? I only ask because there are some that believe its bad luck to enter the tournament on a long winning streak. I remember some UK fans remarking they were happy UK lost in the SEC tournament last year before the NCAA's. You know, monkey off back thinking. Honestly, it sounds like convenient thinking to me. Either way, do you think the team might play tighter as the pressure builds, or would they even notice the pressure in the first place?

tommyuf21 · 12-18-2012, 05:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REM08

I have a question. How many of you want to go undefeated through the SEC? I only ask because there are some that believe its bad luck to enter the tournament on a long winning streak. I remember some UK fans remarking they were happy UK lost in the SEC tournament last year before the NCAA's. You know, monkey off back thinking. Honestly, it sounds like convenient thinking to me. Either way, do you think the team might play tighter as the pressure builds, or would they even notice the pressure in the first place?

I don't. First of all, a long winning streak can cause complacency to set in. Second, I don't think this team is good enough to do it, so if it happened, I'd consider it fool's gold.

Losing a couple during the conference season keeps you grounded, let's you know you still have things to work on and creates a little adversity for the team to face.

I think too many bring the football mentality to this sport.

HALLGATOR · 12-18-2012, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REM08

I have a question. How many of you want to go undefeated through the SEC? I only ask because there are some that believe its bad luck to enter the tournament on a long winning streak. I remember some UK fans remarking they were happy UK lost in the SEC tournament last year before the NCAA's. You know, monkey off back thinking. Honestly, it sounds like convenient thinking to me. Either way, do you think the team might play tighter as the pressure builds, or would they even notice the pressure in the first place?

I do. Would love to see the Gators have an undefeated season in the SEC.

GatorJeff · 12-18-2012, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

What would be your guess at the chance we don't lose a game in the SEC?

I am going to say 80% if we can work our just a few of our issues by conference time.

Are you kidding? The Gators will finish about 14-4, which will be good enough to win the SEC title.

bullish · 12-18-2012, 08:12 PM

we won't go undefeated. .0000001% chance

We have a good league. A lot of talent. Kentucky, Missouri, Tenn, LSU, Ala, Vandy, if we win all these it will be nearly a miracle. Everybody will be gunning for us. As we saw this week it is hard to close out teams on the road.

13 - 5 or 14 -4 would be good conf records.

GatorJeff · 12-18-2012, 08:21 PM

The Gators play Kentucky twice, Missouri twice, nine SEC road games........yet they are supposed to have an 80% chance to win all 18 games. Have you watched much college basketball?

REM08 · 12-18-2012, 08:23 PM

Another question. What is harder, being the overall number 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and winning the title, or UF sweeping through the SEC (this year) undefeated? So, 18 wins - 4 to 6 of which are against NCAA tournament teams (guessing) - or 6 wins, the last few of which are against much tougher competition?

I ask because no number 1 seed ever has better than a 50% chance and I'm just saying 50 to be safe, its usually not CLOSE to that. You'd have to think its much easier to sweep the SEC this year than to win a title as the favorite to give Florida a good chance at sweeping this year.

I tend to agree with the kind of stats Matthanuf06 was suggesting. I'm not sure how I feel about the question I just raised though, can think of arguments either way.

Also, I agree with whoever brought up Florida's defensive proficiency as being something that could bode well for them when it comes to this discussion. "Defense never takes a day off"...

HALLGATOR · 12-18-2012, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorJeff

The Gators play Kentucky twice, Missouri twice, nine SEC road games........yet they are supposed to have an 80% chance to win all 18 games. Have you watched much college basketball?

Yeah, I've watched 2 games. Isn't that enough?