Gators #1 in Sagarin!!!!

[gatorbogey]

top 20 sagarin, how you like dem apples?!

College Basketball 2012-2013 through 2012 December 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | ELO_SCORE | PREDICTOR
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.90] [ 3.48] [ 3.74]
1 Florida = 95.36 7 0 76.68( 50) 1 0 | 3 0 | 94.17 2 | 96.95 1
2 Duke = 95.12 8 0 82.54( 4) 5 0 | 5 0 | 96.03 1 | 94.29 3
3 Indiana = 94.09 8 0 69.89( 269) 2 0 | 2 0 | 92.53 3 | 96.63 2
4 Louisville = 93.32 7 1 75.56( 80) 1 1 | 2 1 | 92.44 4 | 94.22 4
5 Syracuse = 93.18 6 0 73.21( 158) 0 0 | 1 0 | 92.41 5 | 93.92 5
6 Michigan = 92.26 7 0 76.08( 63) 2 0 | 3 0 | 92.02 6 | 92.33 6
7 Gonzaga = 91.28 8 0 74.26( 125) 0 0 | 0 0 | 90.69 8 | 91.76 7
8 Ohio State = 91.15 5 1 71.44( 216) 0 1 | 0 1 | 91.13 7 | 91.00 8
9 Kansas = 90.48 6 1 73.58( 144) 0 1 | 0 1 | 90.41 9 | 90.37 9
10 Minnesota = 89.64 9 1 75.18( 96) 0 1 | 2 1 | 89.40 10 | 89.71 11
College Basketball 2012-2013 through 2012 December 5 Wednesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | ELO_SCORE | PREDICTOR
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.90] [ 3.48] [ 3.74]
11 Pittsburgh = 89.19 8 1 70.64( 250) 0 1 | 0 1 | 88.81 11 | 89.42 12
12 Creighton = 87.53 7 1 71.19( 229) 1 0 | 2 0 | 86.86 13 | 88.10 16
13 Cincinnati = 87.42 7 0 67.69( 318) 0 0 | 2 0 | 86.27 20 | 88.66 13
14 Kentucky = 87.28 5 3 75.32( 86) 0 3 | 1 3 | 86.24 21 | 88.34 14
15 VCU(Va. Commonwealth) = 87.26 5 3 78.43( 24) 0 2 | 2 3 | 86.61 16 | 87.79 17
16 North Carolina = 87.06 5 2 74.47( 117) 0 1 | 0 1 | 86.59 17 | 87.36 19
17 Arizona = 86.96 6 0 69.85( 270) 0 0 | 0 0 | 85.76 26 | 88.28 15
18 Oklahoma State = 86.89 6 1 76.78( 47) 1 0 | 2 0 | 87.81 12 | 85.97 21
19 Wisconsin = 86.33 6 3 72.93( 173) 0 2 | 1 3 | 84.11 35 | 89.90 10
20 NC State = 86.18 5 2 77.50( 37) 0 2 | 1 2 | 86.76 14 | 85.51 23

[TampaGatorFan]

We sure as hell looked like the #1 team in the nation the past couple of weeks.

[ufgator4ever]

Shhhhhh.

[UFG8rGuy3283]

Originally Posted by ufgator4ever

Shhhhhh.

I laugh because a lot of times I find myself saying the same thing. Ultimately, though, we have 7 upperclassmen on this team who I think have really figured out over the past 2 years what it takes to be a really, really good team.

I think Billy has really put together a team with great chemistry that like each other and are playing as a cohesive unit rather than a bunch of talented players in a pick up game. It's going to be a fun ride the next 2 years.

GO GATORS!

[GreenGatorGuy6218]

Impressive no doubt.

[themistocles]

You can't make distinctions based on fractions of a point on a scale up to 95.

One might make an argument that the top 3 ranging from 94 to 95 are somewhat above from 10-20 (86-89), but it is unknown how many points tend to discriminate in such a rating.

Also, it is really toooooooo early to make much in the way of judgments based on such rating systems. If this holds up through the end of the year, at that point one could probably use this for predictive purposes.

[manigordo]

Originally Posted by themistocles

You can't make distinctions based on fractions of a point on a scale up to 95.

One might make an argument that the top 3 ranging from 94 to 95 are somewhat above from 10-20 (86-89), but it is unknown how many points tend to discriminate in such a rating.

Also, it is really toooooooo early to make much in the way of judgments based on such rating systems. If this holds up through the end of the year, at that point one could probably use this for predictive purposes.

Of course you are correct, and I am sure you mean well. However, I read the OP was mainly suggesting, "How cool is this?"

Your response, though accurate, misses that point badly.

Any idiot, educated or not, must understand that this season has just started and that the future for this team is not written yet. If you need to explain that, well, okay.

[InstiGATOR1]

Originally Posted by themistocles

You can't make distinctions based on fractions of a point on a scale up to 95.

One might make an argument that the top 3 ranging from 94 to 95 are somewhat above from 10-20 (86-89), but it is unknown how many points tend to discriminate in such a rating.

Also, it is really toooooooo early to make much in the way of judgments based on such rating systems. If this holds up through the end of the year, at that point one could probably use this for predictive purposes.

Sure you can. If you like decimal places you can take any metric you like and divide it by 1,000,000 or 100,000,000 if you like. If you are partial to scientific notation you can report it 2.73 E-10 or you can multiply by 1,000,000 or 100,000,000 and report it as 2.73 E+10 or whatever.

It the metric is garbage, then making it larger, ie more zeros or smaller, ie more decimal places won't make it ungarbage. Similarly if the metric is a good one, normalizing it in some way won't make it garbage. So the quetion ultimately becomes is Sagarin measure a good one or a bad one. That may be something unknown to you [or me], but it is not something unknowable and that a major publication even one I don't care much for publishes this year in and year out indicates it has been vetted some.

[GatorLurker]

First, look at the last column. That is the "Predictor" rating which is much more accurate that the "Elo Chess" rating where margin of victory is removed from the analysis. There Indiana and Florida have a clear margin over the next team (Duke). The Sagarin rating is an average of the two scores.

I would agree that the difference between Indiana and Florida in the Predictor measure is within the "noise". When you look at Pomeroy (which is very similar to Sagarin Predictor) it has Indiana and Florida flipped with a noticeable gap to Louisville and Duke next that is smaller than the Sagarin gap.

Once you start getting additional reliable information (Pomeroy and Sagarin Predictor have a proven track record) taking them together is even more insightful. But all it really does is to confirm what my eyeballs have seen: The Gator Boys are hot, Indiana is a class team, Duke has won some good games early, and the gap from Indiana and Florida to Duke may or may not be significant.

All of this is just fun stuff to talk about, though. They play the games on the hardwood and not on computers.

[gatordee]

I just wanted to say this is awesome! This team is off to if not the best, one of the best starts. This is soooooo cool!

[sec1]

shhhhhh...is right .. i want this team to get a little more experience together and then we will really be a strong team , i love how we are playing so far

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by themistocles

You can't make distinctions based on fractions of a point on a scale up to 95.

One might make an argument that the top 3 ranging from 94 to 95 are somewhat above from 10-20 (86-89), but it is unknown how many points tend to discriminate in such a rating.

Also, it is really toooooooo early to make much in the way of judgments based on such rating systems. If this holds up through the end of the year, at that point one could probably use this for predictive purposes.

He actually suggests that you use is his metric as straight up points, so it is quite easy to figure out how many points discriminate two teams in his rating.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 4 points for the home team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be favored by 6 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90. Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points over a HOME team having a rating of 78.

In case anyone is wondering, Sagarin's formula would have us as 4.5 point favorites over Arizona in Tempe right now.

[orlandogator]

Well rankings or not, I can;t remember ever seeing a Gator team playing defense like they did against FSU. Maybe part of it was FSU but considering their win margins against other teams of late, it has to be more than that.