Ken Pomroy likes preseason (AP) polls

[REM08]

I post this because I thought it was interesting and because I've noticed how fashionable it has become to deride the usefulness or accuracy of polls (especially preseason ones). Ironically, Pomroy discounts the accuracy and usefulness of in-season polls - yet thinks a lot of the preseason ones.

He explains it much better than I could summarize, so read it for yourself. Pretty much he shows how strong a predictor the preseason AP polls have been when it comes to eventual tournament seed. He provides some pretty compelling charts too.

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...season_ap_poll

Here's a primer:

A while back, I expressed my support for the pre-season AP poll. A refresher: During the season I have no use for the polls because nobody really knows what they represent. But before games are played - and voters minimize the importance of scoring margin, game location, and schedule strength - everyone is trying to rank the best 25 teams in the country.

As I prepare to release my own preseason ratings (in about a week), built strictly from a formula, I again wondered about the pre-season AP poll and how useful it is as a forecast tool. Not just for the team ranked at the top as was examined in the previous piece, but for teams ranked at each spot in the poll.

So I went back through the 64-team era and recorded the eventual tournament seed for each team ranked in the preseason. That data is summarized below.

[InstiGATOR1]

This finding by Pomroy is quite interesting to me also. I did point out on one thread that the 10th team, the slot UF is ranked in one poll this year, in one poll last year did not make the NCAA tourney. That team was Pittsburgh.

Still it is interesting that the preseason poll is a better predictor that the last poll of the year.

[corpgator]

Originally Posted by InstiGATOR1

This finding by Pomroy is quite interesting to me also. I did point out on one thread that the 10th team, the slot UF is ranked in one poll this year, in one poll last year did not make the NCAA tourney. That team was Pittsburgh.

Still it is interesting that the preseason poll is a better predictor that the last poll of the year.

The pre-season poll is a better predictor than the final one for tournament success. The final poll is a better predictor of who will get in the tournament since getting in is based on results what the final rates.

It's all the other in season polls that are crap. In fact, none of the rankings matter one iota, except as curiosity, since there is a committee that picks teams for the tourney.