Home sales contracts rise for 8th straight month

[ces1948]

Nothing to see here RW's may move along.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/02/real...ion=2009110210

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of signed sales contracts to buy homes rose in September for the eighth straight month, according to a real estate industry report released Monday.

The September Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) spiked 6.1% to 110.1, consolidating a 6.4% gain in August. It was the index's highest level since December 2006, when it stood at 112.8.

The leap was far better than expected. A panel of analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a 1.2% rise.

Analysts, including Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, have traced much of the improvement to the government's first-time homebuyer tax credit program, which gives an up to $8,000 tax break to new homebuyers. It's estimated that between 200,000 and 400,000 additional sales will have been made because of the credit.

[CDG8tor]

My son sold his house last week in a short sale.

If not, he would have lost it to foreclosure.

Are short sales figured into the pending home sales index?

curious

CD

[ladyg8or]

Mr CES, do these numbers nclude contracts on foreclosed and auctioned proerties as well as short sale properties? My best friend is in Real Estate and she tells me her only sales for the last 8 months have been in foreclosures and short sales.

[96Gatorcise]

I would like to see how many homes are going into foreclosure compared to the numbers being sold. Also who is paying for the 2.4 billion tax shortfall with the first time buyer credit?

"Clearly, buyers were eager to get business done before the credit's November expiration," said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst for Weiss Research. "So I wouldn't be surprised to see some give back in pending sales over the next month or two."

"As long as buyers do not overstretch and stay well within their budget, a sizable pent-up demand can be tapped among financially qualified potential buyers," he said.

If buyers couldn't stay within their means the first time, what makes you think they can do it this time?

[cjgator76]

CD and lady - I believe the answers to your questions are yes and yes. This index is based on signed contracts (not closings, but contracts) for the sale of any type of existing housing, as reported by MLS groups and brokerage firms.

[ces1948]

Originally Posted by 96Gatorcise

I would like to see how many homes are going into foreclosure compared to the numbers being sold. Also who is paying for the 2.4 billion tax shortfall with the first time buyer credit?





If buyers couldn't stay within their means the first time, what makes you think they can do it this time?

Because the the house that was $200k last year is $100k this time around?

[Dreamliner]

This can only be construed as great news, as home sales rose during the Great Depression too.

[TR1228]

The government isn't letting home prices fall to where they would be in a free market. It's attempting to prop up home construction and home prices in a vain attempt to keep the bubble going. In addition to unlimited loans from the Fed at *0%*, we've got FHA growing the amount of loans it's cosigning exponentially as well as the govt's $8,000 "credit" for buying a house, so yes home sales are going to rise as long as the government prop them up at the expense of trillions in more borrowing. That's not a good thing. It's akin to saying "Instead of coming down from the heroin I already took, I took more and now I'm happy! This must be a good idea." It can't last unless you believe we can borrow trillions from the rest of the world forever, and when it stops the pain will be all the worse for the extra debt and malinvestment we've taken on.

[g8trjax]

Originally Posted by TR1228

The government isn't letting home prices fall to where they would be in a free market. It's attempting to prop up home construction and home prices in a vain attempt to keep the bubble going. In addition to unlimited loans from the Fed at *0%*, we've got FHA growing the amount of loans it's cosigning exponentially as well as the govt's $8,000 "credit" for buying a house, so yes home sales are going to rise as long as the government prop them up at the expense of trillions in more borrowing. That's not a good thing. It's akin to saying "Instead of coming down from the heroin I already took, I took more and now I'm happy! This must be a good idea." It can't last unless you believe we can borrow trillions from the rest of the world forever, and when it stops the pain will be all the worse for the extra debt and malinvestment we've taken on.

Come on TR, don't pee in the OP's Cherrio's. Nobody wants to hear the govt is propping up our entire economy.

[LittleBlueLW]

Evil capitalists moving in on great deals due to someone else's demise. How can they sleep at night?

Some great deals out there right now guys.

[GT Gator]

Originally Posted by TR1228

The government isn't letting home prices fall to where they would be in a free market. It's attempting to prop up home construction and home prices in a vain attempt to keep the bubble going. In addition to unlimited loans from the Fed at *0%*, we've got FHA growing the amount of loans it's cosigning exponentially as well as the govt's $8,000 "credit" for buying a house, so yes home sales are going to rise as long as the government prop them up at the expense of trillions in more borrowing. That's not a good thing. It's akin to saying "Instead of coming down from the heroin I already took, I took more and now I'm happy! This must be a good idea." It can't last unless you believe we can borrow trillions from the rest of the world forever, and when it stops the pain will be all the worse for the extra debt and malinvestment we've taken on.

[GT Gator]

Oh and let's not forget this:

http://www.nlpc.org/stories/2009/11/02/first-time-homebuyer-tax-credit-program-rife-fraud-irs-employees-scam

Despite its brief existence, the federal government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers already has proven to be a costly boondoggle. And in what appears to be an act of unintended comedy, Congress is primed to extend and expand this "temporary" program beyond its November 30 deadline. On Thursday, October 22, J. Russell George, inspector general for the Internal Revenue Service, testified before a House Ways and Means subcommittee that the tax credit has been rife with inefficiency and fraud. Among those scamming the program, he believes, are more than 50 IRS employees. This interim report, George emphasized, if anything, understates the problem.

Such an outcome shouldn't come as a stunner. With homeownership now almost a matter of moral right and mortgage lending becoming more than ever nationalized, the tax credit is ripe for the picking. Congress passed and President Bush signed the program into law in July 2008 as part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act. Anyone buying a primary residence during April 9, 2008 through June 30, 2009 would receive a tax credit worth 10 percent of the home's value, or up to $7,500. The credit would have to be repaid over 15 years and would be awarded after the purchase. Thus, it functioned as an interest-free loan. At the time, the housing downturn already had begun. Mortgage defaults and foreclosures were rising significantly.
...

Perhaps the most egregious fraud is attributable to IRS employees. Mr. George stated to the Ways and Means panel that his staff had uncovered at least 53 cases of agency employees filing "illegal or inappropriate" claims. He added, ominously: "In all honesty this is an interim report. I expect that the number would be much higher than that number." If this is true, then the IRS is an agency in need of housecleaning. Out of all types of government agencies, a tax collection agency, most of all, can ill afford a reputation as a home for scammers.

[AnnArborGator]

Originally Posted by g8trjax

Come on TR, don't pee in the OP's Cherrio's. Nobody wants to hear the govt is propping up our entire economy.

Actually, I'm convinced that the leftists would cheer the govt propping the entire economy (since it is) as long as the MSM cheerleaders can put a positive spin on it.

Heaven forbid they be asked to think critically about economics or society in general.

[malscott]

figures are so skewed. Finally the foreclosures and short sales are starting to sell.

[gatorknights]

A guy I know hasn't made a mortgage payment in 18 months. He owes $750k on a house that [I]might/I] be worth half that. He got approved for the loan less than 12 months out of bankrupcy as a self employed borrower on a stated income stated asset program. Multiply that by a few tens of millions, and maybe then we can understand how bleeped up the housing industry is, and how long it will take to climb out of the sewer. I'll say it again, the gubmint stimulous plan should have provided funding for new prison construction.

[JerseyGator01]

Whitney Houston just put up her home for sale in Jersey. Listed at $2.5M - assessed at over twice that amount. Everyone wants to get out of Dem-controlled Jersey.

[AnnArborGator]

Originally Posted by gatorknights

A guy I know hasn't made a mortgage payment in 18 months. He owes $750k on a house that [I]might/I] be worth half that. He got approved for the loan less than 12 months out of bankrupcy as a self employed borrower on a stated income stated asset program. Multiply that by a few tens of millions, and maybe then we can understand how bleeped up the housing industry is, and how long it will take to climb out of the sewer. I'll say it again, the gubmint stimulous plan should have provided funding for new prison construction.

They have no intention of prosecuting, unfortunately. That would require the government to enforce the laws against the FIRE industries...heaven forbid!

[gatorknights]

Originally Posted by AnnArborGator

They have no intention of prosecuting, unfortunately. That would require the government to enforce the laws against the FIRE industries...heaven forbid!

Hey, a guy can dream can't he?

[gatorknights]

Not to sound like a broken record, but one example of the myth of how good deals are now:

http://mybellacollina.com/2009/02/26/hello-world/

Pick any town, any place. The scale will not be the same, but the concept sure is.

Further BS:

http://nreionline.com/news/bracing_f..._condo_market/

There are certainly some isolated opportunities for long term buys.
But there are still plenty of black holes out there disguised as bargains as well.

[DesertGator]

Let me start by restating that I loathe statistics. I'm convinced they are nothing more than a mathematician's method for lying.

That said, S&P's Case-Shiller Index shows some good and bad news on the housing market. The good is that things have indeed trended upward as far as "sale pairs" over the last 5 months (not 8 as CNN mentions). Whether that is due to short sale, or foreclosures I really cannot tell from the data.

The "elephant in the room" here though at least according to this set of statistics is that we're still around 46% above baseline value for adjusted inflation through August '09.

Here's the link to the home prices report (PDF) and the sales pair report (Excel) if anyone's interested.

And, here's the homepage for the index.