First, an article stating that seeding doesn't matter.
http://www.slate.com/articles/sports...ver_where.html
Second, his ratings give us a 21% chance of winning it all. We're also the 3rd most likely to get to the 2nd round based on how strong we are and how weak our first opponent is. We should get a good confidence boost out of that game. Then, we're 2nd most likely for every round but the final where we're tied with Louisville.
Poor Kansas has little chance of getting to the final four by dint of being in our bracket.
Anyway, take it with a grain of salt because the tourney never shakes out that way, but his numbers are better than the so-called experts, but will still lose to the random person picking based on mascots sometimes.