Gator Country

gatordavisl · 03-09-2013, 06:11 PM

The SEC has been a weak conference this year. Down the stretch, though, teams needing wins are getting them. Several have noted that the only two sure bids are UF/Mizz. After today though . . .

UF - in, sitting at a four seed, playing for a three, with slight chance at a two if they win the SEC tourney
Mizz - probably an eight/nine, unless they go on a run
UK - huge win today might get them in. If they win one in the SEC tourney, they are in. Look to be in the seven-ten range.
UT - huge win against Mizzou - probably punched their ticket. Another seven-ten seed.
Ole Miss - hard to keep at team out that has 23 wins. They get one win in the tourney and I think they get in.

That's five bids, which is more than most anticipated. There is also Bama, who are playing for their tourney lives. They likely need two SEC tourney wins, though I doubt they get them.

xenythx · 03-09-2013, 06:20 PM

Missouri, UK, and UT are all probably now going to squeeze in on the strength of beating us.

We could have snuffed out both UT and UK's tournament hopes. Way to go guys.

gatordavisl · 03-14-2013, 11:34 PM

UT is in. UK is in. Gators, MZ, UK, UT. Waiting on Ole Miss and Bama, both of which are doubtful. If Bama were to beat UT, I could see both in. Bama probably needs two wins to get in.

oneatatime · 03-15-2013, 08:33 AM

The SEC will get no more than 4 teams and other than Florida and Missouri, there are no guarantees.

Tennessee and Kentucky are leading for the last two slots, but losses today compounded with Ole Miss or Alabama getting to the finals, could knock one or both our.
out

gatorbogey · 03-15-2013, 09:00 AM

why do you think UT is in? i don't think they have the metrics, do they? to be in. i think they are in the discussion as a bubble team, but not 'in'. are they in on any mock brackets? (i haven't looked?)

imo, the sec is down so much [it really is], it's probably better that only those that earned the spots get in this season. let some "little" [mid-major] schools have a chance - that have earned a bid.

**GothamGator** · 03-15-2013, 09:44 AM

Right now, only UF and Missouri are locks.

Kentucky and Tennessee almost certainly get in with a win, and Ole Miss probably does. If Alabama beats Tennessee, they probably have to beat Florida to make the dance.

Remember that there is only so much room on the bubble, and that room can shrink if there are upsets in conference tournaments. Even if these SEC teams win, other teams can pass them or they could get bumped by an automatic qualifier.

Still, its interesting that there could be as few as two or as many as five SEC teams playing the dance.

cmyers1964 · 03-15-2013, 09:51 AM

I'm so tirednof hearing the SEC is down. This is an opinion and you know what they say about opinions. I guarantee there are several SEC teams that would give any team from any league problems. Go back and look at the OOC schedule and the SEC held their own against other conferences, not necessary wins, but tough battles. Thhere is such a BIG10 bias that it borders on nauseating...JMHO.

swampgas44 · 03-15-2013, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gatordavisl

The SEC has been a weak conference this year. Down the stretch, though, teams needing wins are getting them. Several have noted that the only two sure bids are UF/Mizz. After today though . . .

UF - in, sitting at a four seed, playing for a three, with slight chance at a two if they win the SEC tourney
Mizz - probably an eight/nine, unless they go on a run
UK - huge win today might get them in. If they win one in the SEC tourney, they are in. Look to be in the seven-ten range.
UT - huge win against Mizzou - probably punched their ticket. Another seven-ten seed.
Ole Miss - hard to keep at team out that has 23 wins. They get one win in the tourney and I think they get in.

That's five bids, which is more than most anticipated. There is also Bama, who are playing for their tourney lives. They likely need two SEC tourney wins, though I doubt they get them.

UF is sitting at a 2-3 seed. To be exact a 2.89 seed, according to Bracket Matrix which averages over 40 different bracketoligists. We would have to lose to LSU to drop below a 3 seed, and even with that happening we could stay a 3 depending on what 6-8 other teams do. Our RPI, which is 7 right now, fits into this projection exactly.

REM08 · 03-15-2013, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmyers1964

I'm so tirednof hearing the SEC is down. This is an opinion and you know what they say about opinions. I guarantee there are several SEC teams that would give any team from any league problems. Go back and look at the OOC schedule and the SEC held their own against other conferences, not necessary wins, but tough battles. Thhere is such a BIG10 bias that it borders on nauseating...JMHO.

I'm not arguing that you cant' have this opinion, but I can't convince myself to agree. The league was bad this year. Only 1 ranked team. Only 1 other team BARELY receiving votes. If the SEC isn't down this year, what has it been other years (like last year)?

gatordavisl · 03-15-2013, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gatorbogey

why do you think UT is in? i don't think they have the metrics, do they? to be in. i think they are in the discussion as a bubble team, but not 'in'. are they in on any mock brackets? (i haven't looked?)

Their rpi is 53 and are 4-4 vs. top 50. Those are not overwhelming #s, but they have played a decent schedule (rank 46), have 20 wins, and have recent wins against UF and MZ. They are also playing pretty well right now. I am quite confident that UT is in. UK is playing much better now too. With a weak field, I see these two teams already in.

grant1 · 03-15-2013, 05:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GothamGator

Right now, only UF and Missouri are locks.

Kentucky and Tennessee almost certainly get in with a win, and Ole Miss probably does. If Alabama beats Tennessee, they probably have to beat Florida to make the dance.

Remember that there is only so much room on the bubble, and that room can shrink if there are upsets in conference tournaments. Even if these SEC teams win, other teams can pass them or they could get bumped by an automatic qualifier.

Still, its interesting that there could be as few as two or as many as five SEC teams playing the dance.

I'd go along with that. UT will lose to bammer unless something strange happens as us looks a step slow all game. I wanted a rematch, too.

A (bad) loss to vandy will likely send UK to the NIT, which brings me to another question.

If UK misses the cut, does that harm the SEC perception, even if makes room for another team like Ole Miss? Personally, I'd like UK to the NIT as it would send a strong recruiting message that Cal is not golden (though they would be in had Nerlins not got hurt).

tommyuf21 · 03-15-2013, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by grant1

If UK misses the cut, does that harm the SEC perception, even if makes room for another team like Ole Miss? Personally, I'd like UK to the NIT as it would send a strong recruiting message that Cal is not golden (though they would be in had Nerlins not got hurt).

Absolutely. As much as I like to see the arrogant ones get their punishment, it doesn't help us in the big picture.

REM08 · 03-15-2013, 05:36 PM

^^^^^ I don't know you two. I think the perception is down (and accurate) this year regardless. What, if UK makes it in as a play-in team and then loses opening round to a 5 seed, are people going to be talking up the SEC? The SEC has 1 legit team this year, no matter how many make the tournament.

Dont' think NIT or bubble NCAA selction affect recruiting. We've already landed the guys for next year (who probably realize they won't be in the NIT) and the 2014 guys can wait to see how next year goes if they're that uncertain.

Also, keep in mind that SEC bubble teams are competing against other bubble teams just as much as they are eachother. Lunardi's most recent "last 4 in" looked like this - LaSalle, UVA, UT, UK. Each of those teams have lost, with UK still left to play.

GatorsGators · 03-15-2013, 06:05 PM

We're currently sitting at a three seed and playing for a two seed. Not a four and a three.

tommyuf21 · 03-15-2013, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REM08

^^^^^ I don't know you two. I think the perception is down (and accurate) this year regardless. .

Agree with you that the league is down (and it is, no doubt), but everyone is measured against UK and if they are down (and out of the tourney), everyone else's accomplishments are diminished.

For example, in Florida's case, people will say the only reason they won the league is because UK is down.

That's why I like to see UK get in and be a good team. I don't like seeing them have a juggernaut, but a bad UK is not good for us. That's always been my position.

GatorsGators · 03-15-2013, 06:27 PM

Also, I think the SEC is down, but it's not as bad as a lot of people are saying. The ACC is only marginally better, and I honestly think the SEC is better than the Pac-12 this season.

REM08 · 03-15-2013, 06:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tommyuf21

Agree with you that the league is down (and it is, no doubt), but everyone is measured against UK and if they are down (and out of the tourney), everyone else's accomplishments are diminished.

For example, in Florida's case, people will say the only reason they won the league is because UK is down.

That's why I like to see UK get in and be a good team. I don't like seeing them have a juggernaut, but a bad UK is not good for us. That's always been my position.

I see your point. I just feel like UK is what UK is whether they make the tournament. a 10+ seed isn't a contender. Agreed we need teams to be good in the conference though.

GolphinGator · 03-15-2013, 08:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneatatime

The SEC will get no more than 4 teams and other than Florida and Missouri, there are no guarantees.

Tennessee and Kentucky are leading for the last two slots, but losses today compounded with Ole Miss or Alabama getting to the finals, could knock one or both our.
out

What you posted is what they are saying on tv at the half during the Vandy/Kentucky game. UT already lost and UK is down 14 at the half. If UK loses to Vandy they may be out and many are saying UT is out after they lost.

tommyuf21 · 03-15-2013, 08:36 PM

I posed the possibility that we only get two bids a couple of weeks ago. Honestly, I really hope that doesn't happen. It would be beyond disgraceful.... :shrug:

number1 · 03-15-2013, 10:10 PM

I am pretty sure Ole Miss(if they avoid a loss tonight) has played their way back in. Alabama should also jump back in as well.