Gator Country

REM08 · 03-11-2013, 06:25 PM

http://www.wruf.com/

Jaggator · 03-11-2013, 06:30 PM

Where do you live REM?

REM08 · 03-11-2013, 06:34 PM

Said regular season close game performance not statistically indicative of post season close game performance.

Harping on Boynton for end of game stuff "going a little overboard..."

Used Alabama game as example of a close game that went in the books as a 12 point win. He joked that it would have been better for public perception for UF to win with a buzzer beater - which he said is dumb.

Said he doesn't believe Florida is the best team in the country, despite his rankings but would rank Indiana, Duke and Louisville as top 3, with Gonzaga and Florida the next 2 best.

He believes a lot of what happens at the end of close games is luck. Mentioned Indiana's recent win over Michigan as an example.

He thinks Missouri is the second best team in the conference - despite finishing lower than that. Thinks they are in and UK is pretty much in.

Nothing groundbreaking here, but its safe to say he doesn't care about this end of game stuff as much as many of you. Statistically, its hard to argue with him talking about randomness at the end of games, but you've gotta wonder sometimes if the result over a number of games hasn't ended up random. This would have to impact team psyche at least.

REM08 · 03-11-2013, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jaggator

Where do you live REM?

Lexington, for a while now. Daphne Alabama before that. I know the radio station is local to Florida but I saw it on twitter.

HALLGATOR · 03-11-2013, 06:35 PM

Thanks, I only caught the tale end of it when he was talking about the rest of the conference and the Mountain West.

tebowharvin · 03-11-2013, 06:38 PM

Bump

**regurgigator** · 03-11-2013, 06:47 PM

I think he generally makes a lot of sense.

I agree about Missouri, but I think UK may be the worst match-up for us. In the last game, it appeared UK had the athleticism to consistently challenge our 3-point shooting while also having the 7-footer protecting the rim when our perimeter players drove into the paint.

GatorLurker · 03-11-2013, 07:19 PM

I subscribe to kenpom and occasionally ask him a question by email that is always answered. In particular I asked him what is wrong with his methodology since it ranks the Gators #1 by a significant margin and yet his eyeball test says "no". He replied, but didn't actually answer the question.

Personally I think that his algorithm needs some tweaking.

REM08 · 03-11-2013, 07:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorLurker

I subscribe to kenpom and occasionally ask him a question by email that is always answered. In particular I asked him what is wrong with his methodology since it ranks the Gators #1 by a significant margin and yet his eyeball test says "no". He replied, but didn't actually answer the question.

Personally I think that his algorithm needs some tweaking.

I think it just speaks to the value of subjectivity. Kinda runs counter to his philosophy, but I think there's something to it. I still think his rankings are the best out there.

GatorLurker · 03-11-2013, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REM08

I think it just speaks to the value of subjectivity. Kinda runs counter to his philosophy, but I think there's something to it. I still think his rankings are the best out there.

I agree and agree.

Still, I thought it was weird that a numbers guy would hold the contrary ideas that his numbers were both right and wrong at the same time and have no problem with that.

Personally I think that his algorithm inflates the Gators.

InstiGATOR1 · 03-11-2013, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorLurker

I subscribe to kenpom and occasionally ask him a question by email that is always answered. In particular I asked him what is wrong with his methodology since it ranks the Gators #1 by a significant margin and yet his eyeball test says "no". He replied, but didn't actually answer the question.

Personally I think that his algorithm needs some tweaking.

Gee, I think UF passes the eyeball test with flying colors. Eight top level athlete all but one who is a threat to score and all who are excellent defenders.

He did an earlier study about the effect of losing a first close game on winning the second, losing a third etc. He found no effect. What I wonder is what would he find if he looked at whether the games were at home or away.

If you lose a close road game and your next close game is on the road do you lose it more than if your next close game is at home. I bet he would find to some degree.

REM08 · 03-12-2013, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by InstiGATOR1

Gee, I think UF passes the eyeball test with flying colors. Eight top level athlete all but one who is a threat to score and all who are excellent defenders.

He did an earlier study about the effect of losing a first close game on winning the second, losing a third etc. He found no effect. What I wonder is what would he find if he looked at whether the games were at home or away.

If you lose a close road game and your next close game is on the road do you lose it more than if your next close game is at home. I bet he would find to some degree.

I think he's just talking eyeball test relative to being the number 1 team in the nation - as his rankings suggest.

Clearly they past the test, but do they pass it compared to Duke with Kelly back or Indiana? Pomroy suggests not and would only move them down a few spots to 4 or 5.

Jonas · 03-12-2013, 11:04 AM

It's really weird to see a stat guy talking about the eye ball test. I thought the general idea of using stats to create a ranking is because your eyes can lie.

corpgator · 03-12-2013, 11:29 AM

He tweaks his rankings a lot. He's aware, for example, that Wisconsin is always overrated by his algorithm. In fact, it seems to overrate a lot of teams that play slow and have good defense. Wisconsin is usually top 10 in his rankings, 11 this year, and usually bow out of the tourney early.

We're at 298th for pace with the #2 defense and we're #1.
Pitt: 338 pace, 11 defense, #6.
Wisconsin, 334, 4, #11. (They also have 10 losses).
Georgetown 301, 3, #13.

If you could go back to his pre-tourney ratings, you'd see all those teams near the top every year, and every year they bow out. Only Florida has been able to break through in 06 and 07 and Georgetown in 07 as well. Georgetown probably would have won in 06 if not for us beating them. Hibbert's defense is crazy good.