The changing dynamic for electrical power

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Electrical power generation is increasingly becoming very diverse. I think that is a good thing. The following article discusses the economics of the matter;

So this is the brave new energy world of the 21st century — two evenly matched opponents. Natural gas is providing 30 percent of our electricity, with coal a half-dozen percentage points above that, trying to halt its downward spiral. Add in electricity powered by water, wind and solar — which, collectively, have surged to now provide about 12 percent of our power — and you've got heated competition for access to your wall socket.

The future of electric power is at stake. Coal plants are closing. Nuclear power is not growing. The economy is picking up. That means more demand for electricity.

"In the last five years or so, there's been an increasing degree of concern in the industry that we need to start building new capacity," says Revis James, who analyzes the market for the utility industry's Electric Power Research Institute.

New capacity — new power plants — will determine the kind of energy Americans use for the next 50 years or so. Natural gas would seem the economical choice. But here's the rub: The actual cost of the gas — rather than the cost of building the equipment to burn it — accounts for about half a utility's operating cost. That's way more than coal or uranium fuel. So when gas prices fluctuate (and they're famous for doing that) it can wreck a utility's bottom line. "The real $64,000 question," James says, is, 'What will happen to gas prices as the power sector's consumption of gas starts to significantly increase?' "

-----NPR


http://www.npr.org/2013/03/01/173258...cc=sh-20130309

[HALLGATOR]

Good article. Diversity, in my opinion, is the key to future and the way to keep our costs from undermining business growth as well as not too adversely affecting the individual home.

[tegator80]

The only question I have in our becoming more electricity focused is whether our power grids are up to the task. I am guessing that many need some real upgrades. But back to the article, getting creative in making electricity is a good thing, provided that the Federal Government isn't playing favorites. I would like a close to complete divestment of oil burning for electricity. That would free it up for all of the other things it is invaluable.

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Originally Posted by tegator80

I would like a close to complete divestment of oil burning for electricity. That would free it up for all of the other things it is invaluable.

I am not sure how this gets accomplished without government fiat? Yet you don't want the government to play favorites? I am not sure you can have it both ways.

In any case, oil fired electrical plants represent a very small minority of the whole.

[G8trGr8t]

nobody burns fuel oil for electricity anymore except for islands these days and the costs of electricity is killing those islands.

the volumes of natural gas available in this country is beyond belief. No way that we could ever create enough demand to significantly raise the price again. Ultradeep wells just now being tested with technology that they are inventing as they drill are capable of producing tremendous volumes of nat gas. Right now, the only drilling for nat gas is from companies drilling to either test new technology (ultradeep wells) or from companies having to drill to hold leases.

NEW ORLEANS--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- McMoRan Exploration Co. (MMR) reported today that independent reserve engineers engaged for the sole account of McMoRan estimated proved, probable and possible oil and gas reserves of 546.7 Bcfe gross (141.7 Bcfe net to McMoRan, including 12.9 Bcfe of net proved reserves) associated with interim results from the sands encountered above 24,000 feet in the Lineham Creek ultra-deep exploratory well located onshore South Louisiana. These are the first reserves to be booked in the sub-salt, ultra-deep trend. The well is currently drilling below 27,600 feet to evaluate the deeper primary objectives and has a proposed total depth of 29,000 feet. Development plans will be determined following completion of drilling and evaluation of the deeper objectives.

one well, still under development, expected to produce over 500 million cubic feet and they still ahven't gotten to the best subsalt zones to prove up productiont here and book those reserves.


There are literally thousands of nat gas wells that are shut in right now as it just isn't worth pumping at these prices and the demand is not sufficient to get the price back up to $4. This summer, nearly of the available gas storage facilities were filled. Nat gas drilling rig counts are at 10 year lows due to the low price of nat gas.

If nat gas prices got to $5 the industry would meet or exceed any possible demand increases. Today, there are wells around the country flaring gas off because the price does not justify the expense to extend lines out to the wells.

wrt power generation, I expect the next change of substance will be smalller, compact nat gas powered plants spread out to provide power closer to the demand so that the distribution grids will be less taxed. Commonly known as Distributed Generation, this is becoming more feasible as there have been more nat gas power plants that are closed systems that do not require external cooling volumes.

good read here

http://www.c2es.org/publications/dis...g-technologies

Distributed generation systems (also referred to as self-generation) consist of smaller electricity generating units located at or near where the electricity will be consumed. In the commercial and industrial sectors, where the majority of distributed generation occurs, natural gas-fueled electricity comprised approximately 54 percent of the total net generation in 2010, followed by renewable sources at around 22 percent and coal-fired generation at nearly 13 percent.

Distributed generation has many benefits compared to centralized electricity generation including: end user access to waste heat, increased electric system reliability, reduced peaking power requirements, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and reduced vulnerability to terrorism.[2] These benefits derive, in large part, because distributed generation technologies are better able to utilize more of the energy in the fuel. In 2010, 67.7 percent of the primary energy used for electricity generated for the residential and commercial building sector was lost during generation and transmission.[3] Converting primary energy at a central power station into electricity produces a large quantity of heat energy, which generally is not captured for productive use and is therefore lost. Additional energy is lost as the electricity is delivered from power stations to end users. U.S. annual electricity transmission and distribution losses average about 7 percent of the electricity that is transmitted.[4]

if power companies were truly concerend about volatility in gas prices, it would be easy enough for them to begin to source their own supply. with the price of gas as low as it is now, many companies are having budget priced sales of the gas portion of their portfolios. Chesapeake just sold some gas assets to the chinese at about half of what it should be worth but they needed capital to retire debt since they had removed their hedges on gas and were not generating enough revenue to justify keeping the assets. Too bad they weren't Brazilian deepwater drillers or 0 would have given them low interest loans like he did SOros favorite Petrobas..

[brainstorm]

Originally Posted by MichaelJoeWilliamson

I am not sure how this gets accomplished without government fiat? Yet you don't want the government to play favorites? I am not sure you can have it both ways.

In any case, oil fired electrical plants represent a very small minority of the whole.

Coal, NG and Nuclear are the top 3. Oil is just one percent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:20..._source_v2.png

[gatorman_07732]

Originally Posted by brainstorm

Coal, NG and Nuclear are the top 3. Oil is just one percent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:20..._source_v2.png

Yes indeed, and it never gets cheaper. Anyone who thinks it will is fooling themselves. Supply and demand...everyone uses it

[Burke]

As long as the govt and not the market is making the decisions, the decisions will be made for political reasons and not for good economic decisions. And they will be bad decisions.

[northgagator]

The use of DC (direct current) for residential and commercial use is coming into play.
There is a great ROI with DC: Smaller conductors, fewer transformers, less power be lost from stepping voltage down, lest heat from the transformers. Also, DC is a strong component in the strategy to leverage the combined technologies of Solar, wind, and fuel cells.

[Burke]

Going from AC back to DC will be like going from cars back to horses and buggys.

[brainstorm]

Originally Posted by Burke

Going from AC back to DC will be like going from cars back to horses and buggys.

Might want to read this:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/bu...look.html?_r=0

[HALLGATOR]

Originally Posted by northgagator

The use of DC (direct current) for residential and commercial use is coming into play.
There is a great ROI with DC: Smaller conductors, fewer transformers, less power be lost from stepping voltage down, lest heat from the transformers. Also, DC is a strong component in the strategy to leverage the combined technologies of Solar, wind, and fuel cells.

Will we revisit the argument between Edison and Westinghouse?

[LittleBlueLW]

I have to admit, I had to read the thread title several times.

Swore it was 'The changing dynamic for electoral power'. That being said, the responses seemed odd.

Now they make a little more sense.

We are in the early stages of planning our new home. We will incorporate solar with possibly going whole house solar if the ROI makes sense considering the large initial investment.

[northgagator]

Originally Posted by Burke

Going from AC back to DC will be like going from cars back to horses and buggys.

The the deciding factor in "War of the Currents"
Was AC's superior ability to be transported many miles by cable. DC's transmission capability was extremely poor. This many that the electric generating plants could be miles away using cheap water power in places like Niagara Falls.

This factor was not just for New York City (the site of "The War of the Currents") but for all big cities.

Why is DC and option now? There are two reasons.
1, Today the residential and business demand for electricity is about 30% DC and 70% AC. With in the next decade the demand for DC will be close to 60%. Why the growing shift? The growth of digital electronics, solid state circuitry, and nano technologies is going to be incorporated into more and more products. Today that 30% rate can be found in many of our appliances, tools, PC's, printers, and other products. Currently these products are using transformers to step down the voltage and conversion to DC. This process consumes 10% of the electricity that is passing through the device (another waste of a resource). Why the growth of DC current in our products? AC current is like a bull in the china shop. The on off cycles of AC are very damaging to electrical components and impossible with digital technology. The amount of voltage in AC current is massive overkill. Many components require 24 volt and even lower that 12 volt. This lower voltage has four benefits. Less electricity is needed, very small wires replace the bigger wires, the components are smaller, and they emit less heat.

Up to this point do you still think DC current is backwards?

2, In the recent years has produces cheaper ways to generate electricity. I am referring to solar, wind, and fuel cell technologies. Technology also has developed super conductors that now reduce or eliminate the advantage that AC had over DC.in fact high voltage of DC is now feasible. This factor brings in a big savings up front. The savings come from the use of smaller cables and the reduction of that 10% lose that you have in honing from AC to DC.

Actually we are ditching the horse and buggy and signing up for the automobile.

Is AC going away? No, there will be good uses for AC for years to come. Ironically DC did not disappear when Edison lost "The War of the Curtents". Several of the DC generating stations that Efision set up were still providing power to dome New York customers up to the the 1940's. in 2007 ConEd turned of powered to it last DC customer.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_o...ents#section_3

http://efficiency.lbl.gov/drupal.fil...LBNL-5193E.pdf

http://www.technologyreview.com/news...e-of-dc-power/

[northgagator]

Edited

[brainstorm]

DC is great for IT Data Centers. Much less heat.

[northgagator]

Originally Posted by brainstorm

DC is great for IT Data Centers. Much less heat.

Our data center had several thousand servers. we have not converted to DC but we have convert to VM ware. this move enabled us to:
1, Cancel plans to enlarge our data center.
2, Free up space in our data center.
3, Reduced the heat from the servers, thus enabling us to cut our air condition requirements by hundred of thousands of dollars per year.

Going DC will enable us to save even more money.
1, The heat build up in data center will drop even more since the need for transformers will be greatly reduced.
2, We have about 1,500 work stations for IT development and maintenance. Going DC will bring a quick reduction in energy consumption and air conditioning.
3, Our facility over 200K square feet of floor space. 90% of the lighting is fluorescent. The standard voltage for lighting circuits in commercial buildings is 277 volts. Every light circuit on those lighting circuits use a ballast that initially steps up the voltage for starting and then stabilized the voltage to reduce the flicker. We can switch out the fluorescent tubes with LED tubes. These tubes can emit the same lumens as the fluorescent tubes. The LED Tube can use a tenth of the watts that a fluorescent uses. The problem here is that the LED tubes are 25 times the price of a similar fluorescent tube. However the LED tube all last twice as long as fluorescent tubes. Over the course of tithe LRD tube iLife the LED gives you the best bang for the buck. Also the cost of the LED tubes will stop drastically as the become more popular and are massed produced. Thus there is some ROiI over the course of the life of the LED tube (16 years)

The current LED tubes run on 24 volt and they do come with a transformer for retrofitting. In new construction they don't need a transformer as long ad the lighting circuits are a matching 24 volt DC current. Thus there are up front savings that come from the lower cabling requirements (smaller wires) and no transformers in the LED tubes.

Many businesses can benefit from DC current.