Seeding watch

[co_gator89]

We will get everyone's absolute best @ the SEC tourney. Outside of us and maybe Mizzou, nobody in the league is assured of a tourney spot. Ultimately the NCAA tournament is what really matters but I always want to see us do well in the SECT.

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by ArtVandelay

You are wayyy off...

If we win vs UK, then we will be at worst a 3 seed.

If we then win on Friday, we will be at worst a 2 seed.

If we win out, we will be a 1 seed.

We have a ton of teams to leap for a 1 seed. People seem to forget other teams are playing as well.

Gonzaga is a 1 if they win out.

The Big 10 can get multiple ones and definitely one 1. What if Michigan beats Indiana in the title game? Michigan State? Indiana is virtually a lock.

A team other than Kansas or KSU to win the Big 12 as either team would be a 1 over us.

A team other than Duke or Miami to win the ACC, either team would be a 1 over us.

A team other than Louisville or Georgetown to win the Big East as both would be a 1 over us.

Then there are totally plausible monkey wrenches where we get jumped. What if either OSU (Ohio St and Okl State) have a monster tournament with a top 5 win with other quality wins whereas we don't add any more quality wins. They could jump us.

It is certainly possible we get a 1, but we need quite a bit of help.

Realistically the Zags will win out.
Then we need Indiana to win the Big 10.
Then we need two (or 3 if Indiana doesn't win out) of an upset in the B12 (KU, KSU) that isn't Oklahoma State, an upset in the ACC (Miami Duke) and an upset in the Big East (GT, LVille).

Possible? Sure. But a 2 is more likely if we win out.

[TampaGatorFan]

Gators will win the SECT. FACT.

[iam4uf]

I don't understand statements to the effect that UF doesn't have enough wins against top-50 teams while some of the talking heads still had UM as a #1 seed after two bad losses (now three bad & they've dropped UM.)

Here are UF's probabilities for our expected RPI. Based on RPI only, we have a 75% chance of being in the range for a #1 seed. However, I think we need to win out to get a top seed. Even if we finish 26-6, depending on who beats us, I think we still have a decent shot at a #2 seed. I'd be pretty disappointed with a #3, but with the parity this year teams that get #2 or #3 are probably about the same.

Final Record W-L pctg. Expected RPI Probability
28-5 84.85% 2.5 47.98%
27-6 81.82% 4.3 26.83%
26-6 81.25% 9.2 11.06%

[gatormann]

The RPI is a big factor for the selection committee. So is a team's record against top 50 teams. Both seem to be pretty good measuring sticks. The RPI helps us. The record against the top 50 hurts us, comparatively. I hope I am wrong but I think the latter will keep us from being a top seed. We shall see...

First things first, of course...and the first thing is beating Kentucky and doing well in the SEC Tournament. Plenty of moving pieces here and the picture changes with the daily scores.