North Carolina has officially been offered to join the Big Ten

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by slique7

ATL:

UT does not need the PAC; they already have a better deal, one that includes: the LHN, a solid Big12 deal, and the newly formed partnership with the SEC that will deliver huge revenue. I don't think it can be overstated, the Cotton Bowl partnership was HUGE for the Big12. Everyone is happy and rich.
Furthermore, I truly don't believe UT wants to take their brand to the left coast, too much "Texan" in them for that. They'd be independent first, but they are much more satisfied controlling the Big12, which they will always do, even through expansion. The flirting with the PAC, IMO, was just due diligence, triggered by a slight fear of OU joining the SEC.

2 years ago I would have COMPLETELY agreed with you and I thought for sure Texas planned to go independent.

But things have changed. The LHN is a complete failure and to stay in the Big-12, they had to give up a big chunk of that revenue. And now that Texas A&M has joined the SEC and practically exploded overnight, Texas is in the position of possibly losing dominance in the state within a few years. I don't think Texas had any idea what Texas A&M could become and in such a short time.

I also don't think people realize just how fragile the Big-12 is right now. The Big-12 is a mess and it wouldn't take much to implode the conference. They can't even philosophically agree on whether or not to expand. And when they decide to do something - like adding FSU and Clemson last Summer - Texas effectively blocked it. There is still a HUGE rift between those schools. Nobody trusts Texas. OU even tried to leave for the Pac-12 without them.

I think Texas doesn't need to look much further than FSU or VT to see what can happen to a strong program in a weak conference.

[Wormwood56]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

This is why I thought WVU made more sense than Mizzou- it gives the Virgina footprint, while Mizzou does give the KC area media market, I'd wager that said market is less interested in SEC football than Virginia would have been.

Do you mean the West Virginia market? The 'Eers are loathed in Virginia.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

This is why I thought WVU made more sense than Mizzou- it gives the Virgina footprint, while Mizzou does give the KC area media market, I'd wager that said market is less interested in SEC football than Virginia would have been.

There are no major TV markets in WV but the one major TV market WVU brings is Pittsburgh. But WVU does nothing for Virginia.

Mizzou brought both KC and St Louis TV markets. Mizzou is a MUCH better addition than WVU would have been.

[slique7]

ATL:

Couple of quick points, IMO:

UT to the PAC would hurt, not help them, in the race against A&M.

I think the Big12, with the Cotton Bowl partnership, is much more stable than you state. Also, at the end of the day, it will not make sense for Texas, or anyone from the Big12, to play the majority of their football on the west coast. The Big12 has a very competitive TV deal, it's not like they are broke, like the ACC.

I don't subscribe to the "weak conference hurting a program" theory. FSU in the 90's being a great example; Ohio State will soon make a similar run. Texas' problem is coaching, that's it. The SEC didn't sprinkle "SEC dust" on A&M; it was fortunate timing with the arrival of Sumlin and the QB. FSU, as we all know, was due to Bobby holding on too long, then hiring a very average football coach afterwards. USC was rarely challenged in conference under Carroll.

[GatorLaw]

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

To reiterate, all the report says is that UNC has been "offered", which could be as simple as an informal verbal "We want you in the Big-10". Nor is there any report from anywhere that there's interest on UNC's part in the Big-10 or even leaving the ACC. Chances are there will never be any formal announcement or written offer extended unless UNC accepts and both sides come to terms.

The SEC didn't extend an official offer to Texas A&M until they formally left the Big-12, cleared all the legal hurdles and were pretty much ready to accept on the spot.

I'm just pointing out that just because there isn't a formal announcement or follow up reports, doesn't mean an offer hasn't been made. It probably just means UNC isn't ready to leave the ACC ... yet.

I was referring to the header of this thread - "North Carolina has officially been offered . . ."

[HungaryGator]

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

Unless the Pac-12 goes beyond 12, there's really no reason for the Big-12 to go beyond 12. UL would be a possible filler if they had to get to a number, but I wouldn't base expanding around them. Like I said, none of the NC schools will make the move to the Big-12 alone. I guess if the Big-12 wanted Duke or WF, that's a possibility, but I don't see it happening.

The Big 12 could ensure themselves of longterm at least near parity with the Big 10 and SEC if it went beyond 12 and got the teams I listed. That would be motivation enough.

If and when ND decides to go to a conference for football, there is no doubt in my mind it will be the Big-10. Big-10 would take them in a heartbeat.

This I couldn't disagree with more. If there is one thing ND has shown it is that the Big 10 will be the very last conference they would join. They aspire to be a national program and need to be being a relatively small private school. They do not want the perception to be that they are just a Midwestern team. That is why they go to such efforts to maintain a presence on the Left Coast (annual games with the Condoms and Stanford) and why their former affiliation was with the Big East and their current one is with the ACC. The one league they steadfastly refused to affiliate with was the Big 10. In addition to the reason I listed above there is history....a history of bad blood. ND wanted to get into the Big 10 and tried over and over again in the first several decades of the 20th century but were repeatedly blocked because they are a religious school. The worm turned and the Big 10 decided that it really wanted ND much later after ND had established itself and became a huge media draw but ND -their administrators, coaches, fans and alums-remembered all the slights heaped upon them by the Big 10 and ever since then have been only too happy to give the Big 10 the middle finger. That ain't gonna change.

I don't think any conference takes Duke on their own merits. In my opinion, the only way Duke ends up in a major conference is in a package deal for UNC or if what I think ultimately happens and the remains of the ACC merge with the Big-12

I could maybe see them as a throw in for the Big 12 if they really did want to go to 16, otherwise you're right IMO. Their only shot is to ride UNC's coattails.

FSU and Clemson would be good pick ups. If there was another decent NC school, NCSU would be a good pick-up. Notre Dame is beyond a pipe dream! UL is really a filler. Miami does literally nothing for the Big-12 once they have FSU.

And that's my point. I don't think any of the other schools make sense. None will increase the revenue enough for the others to agree on them. No conference in their right mind is going to take FSU and Clemson and then grow by 33% by adding 4 filler programs. That's basically the ACC's recent strategy and it blew up in their face.

The Big-12 has already pretty much cemented it's position as one of the 4-super conferences, with a little help from the SEC. The worst thing they could do is dilute themselves by adding random crappy programs.

Again, ND is very realistic. scUM has little by way of a fanbase but they do have history and for Bevo and the Sooners (who are the only ones that matter in the Big 12) that matters. Ego matters to these people. Being able to puff their chests out and claim scUM is a bigtime program matters even if you and I know they are a net drain on any conference.

I guess if all that happened they could, but the chances of them adding any real quality programs beyond FSU and Clemson is extremely low in my opinion. I'm not even sure they get FSU right now.

They probably couldn't get any unless the Big 10 strikes first but if they do the dominoes will fall and they'll be in position to grab several.

Not forgetting that at all. Take Notre Dame out of the equation (they aren't staying with the ACC or going to the Big-12), and if things go pretty much as I expect, there will be EXACTLY 16 teams remaining between the ACC and Big-12. Ideal number for a merger.

ND isn't going to the Big 10. Ever.

Once you get beyond fsu, Clemson and ND, there aren't any major programs left in terms of having a big fan base so at that point do you take scUM because of their history? NC State due to the market they are in? Louisville because they're at least decent? Duke if you want one school for academics and basketball bragging rights? You're not scraping the bottom of the barrel with dregs like Wake, Boston College and Syracuse but after the first 3 I listed there aren't any home runs assuming Ga Tech, UNC, UVA and Va Tech have been taken off the board by the Big 10 and SEC.

Actually, I disagree with you on this. By the Pac-12 NOT taking UTX, strengthened their future position and weakened UTX's bargaining position. UTX had to give up quite a bit just to stay in the Big-12. Outside of the media rights deal, the Pac-12 is in a MUCH better bargaining position with UTX than it was before, plus now OU, Okey State and Texas Tech will be negotiating on a much more level playing field with Texas than before.

Again we see it differently. Bevo has choices and room for maneuver. The PAC has only one option if it seeks to ever match the size and scope of the SEC and Big 10.

That's not to say that Texas definitely joins the Pac-12, but with the way Texas has been weaken in the past 2-3 years, I think it's more likely they do now than before.

Bevo has lost several schools in the immediate vicinity but given the rush to superconferences and the destruction of the Big East and possible destruction of the ACC, I don't agree that Bevo's bargaining position has been weakened. If anything, its been strengthened. They can go to the PAC and insist on terms or they can be the dominant program in the Big 12 as one of the 4 superconferences by picking up ACC refugees.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by GatorLaw

I was referring to the header of this thread - "North Carolina has officially been offered . . ."

I know. My point is that is just that there will probably not be any sort of official announcement unless UNC accepts the offer.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

The Big 12 could ensure themselves of longterm at least near parity with the Big 10 and SEC if it went beyond 12 and got the teams I listed. That would be motivation enough.

There are several points that we'll just have to disagree on. This being one of them. IF, and that's a HUGE if, they added the teams you said, then maybe, but there is almost zero chance of that happening in my opinion.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

This I couldn't disagree with more. If there is one thing ND has shown it is that the Big 10 will be the very last conference they would join. They aspire to be a national program and need to be being a relatively small private school. They do not want the perception to be that they are just a Midwestern team. That is why they go to such efforts to maintain a presence on the Left Coast (annual games with the Condoms and Stanford) and why their former affiliation was with the Big East and their current one is with the ACC. The one league they steadfastly refused to affiliate with was the Big 10. In addition to the reason I listed above there is history....a history of bad blood. ND wanted to get into the Big 10 and tried over and over again in the first several decades of the 20th century but were repeatedly blocked because they are a religious school. The worm turned and the Big 10 decided that it really wanted ND much later after ND had established itself and became a huge media draw but ND -their administrators, coaches, fans and alums-remembered all the slights heaped upon them by the Big 10 and ever since then have been only too happy to give the Big 10 the middle finger. That ain't gonna change.

Again, we'll probably just disagree here. I have no idea how you think Notre Dame has shown they would never join the Big-10.

The reason they've aligned themselves with the Big East and more recently the ACC is simply that those were the only conferences that would allow them to join without football ... no other reason than that. They tried talking to the Big-12 before the ACC but the Big-12 said they could only join as a full partner.

Notre Dame isn't joining ANY conference until it has to but when they do, there would be no logic whatsoever in them picking the Big-12 over the Big-10 if offered.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

Again, ND is very realistic. scUM has little by way of a fanbase but they do have history and for Bevo and the Sooners (who are the only ones that matter in the Big 12) that matters. Ego matters to these people. Being able to puff their chests out and claim scUM is a bigtime program matters even if you and I know they are a net drain on any conference.

We'll just disagree on Notre Dame. They would be a GREAT addition but I just don't see it happening.

As I said, Miami could possibly be a filler, but again, my point is that FSU and Clemson are the only 2 teams of substance, except GT and NCSU. The rest are really fillers. The Big-12 would be making a HUGE mistake rounding out their expansion with 4 fillers.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

Once you get beyond fsu, Clemson and ND, there aren't any major programs left in terms of having a big fan base so at that point do you take scUM because of their history? NC State due to the market they are in? Louisville because they're at least decent? Duke if you want one school for academics and basketball bragging rights? You're not scraping the bottom of the barrel with dregs like Wake, Boston College and Syracuse but after the first 3 I listed there aren't any home runs assuming Ga Tech, UNC, UVA and Va Tech have been taken off the board by the Big 10 and SEC.

If there aren't any more major players available, then why expand beyond 12 at all? Take FSU and Clemson to get to 12 and add the CG and be done with it. No need to grow beyond that until you are forced to or there are stronger candidates available.

You don't make your conference stronger by adding filler programs. A 12-team Big-12 with Texas, OU, FSU and Clemson is stronger and more powerful than a 16-team conference with Miami and Duke.

This is the position the Pac-12 has taken and I think it's the smart position. Don't grow unless you can take programs that are going to help the conference. If getting to 16 or 20 was the goal, the Pac-12 could add Boise State, UNLV, Fresno State and SDSU, but that's not going to happen.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

Again we see it differently. Bevo has choices and room for maneuver. The PAC has only one option if it seeks to ever match the size and scope of the SEC and Big 10.

Bevo has lost several schools in the immediate vicinity but given the rush to superconferences and the destruction of the Big East and possible destruction of the ACC, I don't agree that Bevo's bargaining position has been weakened. If anything, its been strengthened. They can go to the PAC and insist on terms or they can be the dominant program in the Big 12 as one of the 4 superconferences by picking up ACC refugees.

The Pac-12 has been locked into having no real viable expansion options beyond raiding the Big-12 for several years. This is nothing new! The Pac-12 is in the same exact position they were when they took Colorado and Utah. Those were the final 2 strong programs out there, outside of the other 4 they wanted, except that Texas A&M and Nebraska are no longer options. So the Pac-12's position really hasn't changed.

I think Texas's position has changed quite a bit for the worse. A few years ago, They were in a strong Big-12 and their program was on top. They could have done whatever they wanted. The Pac-12 was ready to take them, along with at least OU and Texas A&M with no strings attached. But Texas backed out when Texas A&M and then reportedly OU started talking with the SEC.

Then they signed the LHN deal and piss everyone else in the Big-12 off. TAMU and Mizzou leave making the Big-12 a less viable option. But at the same time the LHN took away their option to join the Pac-12 unless the Pac-12 gave them special treatment and the Pac-12 told Texas to pack sand. But OU and Okey State tried to screw Texas over by getting the Pac-12 to take them alone.

At that point, Texas' only options were to become independent or try to save the Big-12. Because Texas was down as a program, nobody knew how the Notre Dame negotiations with NBC were going to go since ND hadn't been performing well and because the LHN was a complete disaster, becoming independent really wasn't an option, so they had no choice but to try to save the Big-12. But in doing that, they had to give up a lot of the revenue from the LHN and sign over their media rights.

I'm not sure how anybody can objectively look at Texas now versus when they first started talking to the Big-12 and think that Texas is in a better negotiating position.

The Pac-12 knows that Texas' options are to go independent, which given the state of their program would probably not be very smart, or decide between staying in the Big-12, which is pretty clearly, in my opinion, is now inferior to the Pac-12 and at best, might be able to match the Pac-12, or join the Pac-12 and be part of a conference that with Texas and OU can probably rival the SEC and Big-10.

In my opinion, the Pac-12 now has the negotiating advantage.

[HungaryGator]

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

Again, we'll probably just disagree here. I have no idea how you think Notre Dame has shown they would never join the Big-10.

The reason they've aligned themselves with the Big East and more recently the ACC is simply that those were the only conferences that would allow them to join without football ... no other reason than that. They tried talking to the Big-12 before the ACC but the Big-12 said they could only join as a full partner.

Notre Dame isn't joining ANY conference until it has to but when they do, there would be no logic whatsoever in them picking the Big-12 over the Big-10 if offered.

They have gone out of their way to align with anybody but the Big 10 for quite some time. This, despite the fact that the Big 10 has been pursuing them hard. From the reasons ND officially gives about wanting to stay a national rather than a regional brand, I can see why. They don't officially say so, but many of their fans and alums do.....bad blood with the Big 10 definitely carries weight. Conference alignment decisions are not totally rational. The feelings of fans/alums matter quite a bit.

As I said, Miami could possibly be a filler, but again, my point is that FSU and Clemson are the only 2 teams of substance, except GT and NCSU. The rest are really fillers. The Big-12 would be making a HUGE mistake rounding out their expansion with 4 fillers.

I think NC State would be a revenue positive for any conference that doesn't have North Carolina. Obviously ND would be a big addition. scUM is less desirable than sow or Clemson but if you're getting 4.....scUM is still one of the top 15 programs in all-time winning percentage and has won 5 national titles. That would garner a lot of media prestige for the conference even if scUM continues to suck. They get attention way beyond what they merit based on what they did 20 years ago and I don't see that changing.

[quote]I think Texas's position has changed quite a bit for the worse. A few years ago, They were in a strong Big-12 and their program was on top. They could have done whatever they wanted. The Pac-12 was ready to take them, along with at least OU and Texas A&M with no strings attached. But Texas backed out when Texas A&M and then reportedly OU started talking with the SEC.

Then they signed the LHN deal and piss everyone else in the Big-12 off. TAMU and Mizzou leave making the Big-12 a less viable option. But at the same time the LHN took away their option to join the Pac-12 unless the Pac-12 gave them special treatment and the Pac-12 told Texas to pack sand. But OU and Okey State tried to screw Texas over by getting the Pac-12 to take them alone.

At that point, Texas' only options were to become independent or try to save the Big-12. Because Texas was down as a program, nobody knew how the Notre Dame negotiations with NBC were going to go since ND hadn't been performing well and because the LHN was a complete disaster, becoming independent really wasn't an option, so they had no choice but to try to save the Big-12. But in doing that, they had to give up a lot of the revenue from the LHN and sign over their media rights.[quote]

They haven't given up any revenue from the LHN. The revenue sharing was only for Tier I and Tier II rights.

I'm not sure how anybody can objectively look at Texas now versus when they first started talking to the Big-12 and think that Texas is in a better negotiating position.

The Pac-12 knows that Texas' options are to go independent, which given the state of their program would probably not be very smart, or decide between staying in the Big-12, which is pretty clearly, in my opinion, is now inferior to the Pac-12 and at best, might be able to match the Pac-12, or join the Pac-12 and be part of a conference that with Texas and OU can probably rival the SEC and Big-10.

In my opinion, the Pac-12 now has the negotiating advantage.

The Big 12 was given a media deal far better than what they warrant by the networks which wanted to save the conference. Due to that and the LHN, Texas is doing pretty well now. Yes other programs bolted from the Big 12 but they're still making bank and will continue to do so.

Additionally, they can just sit back and wait for the carnage further east knowing they and their league will be the only viable option left for some valuable properties should it happen. If not, they enjoy their current TV contracts and the coming windfall of the Sugar Bowl deal with the SEC. I can't see how anybody would think they are in a worse position than they were a few years ago. Bevo will be able to replenish his depleted harem if he so chooses.

[KelticGator]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

This is why I thought WVU made more sense than Mizzou- it gives the Virgina footprint, while Mizzou does give the KC area media market, I'd wager that said market is less interested in SEC football than Virginia would have been.

As has been aptly pointed out by other posters, the notion that West Virginia would bring the Virginia market is ludicrous. You would no more get the Kentucky or Ohio market with WVU. Virginians do NOT associate themselves with WV. And if you've ever visited much of the state you can see their point.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

They have gone out of their way to align with anybody but the Big 10 for quite some time. This, despite the fact that the Big 10 has been pursuing them hard. From the reasons ND officially gives about wanting to stay a national rather than a regional brand, I can see why. They don't officially say so, but many of their fans and alums do.....bad blood with the Big 10 definitely carries weight. Conference alignment decisions are not totally rational. The feelings of fans/alums matter quite a bit.

No they haven't! Notre Dame has aligned themselves with only conferences that have been willing to allow them be members only in non-football sports. They haven't talked with the SEC or Pac-12 either to the best of my knowledge. And the Big-12 told them no thanks. The Big-10, SEC and Pac-12 (and even Big-12) would be more than happy to have them, but only as full members.

The national versus regional is clearly an excuse. Notre Dame just gave up a lot of that to align with the ACC.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

I think NC State would be a revenue positive for any conference that doesn't have North Carolina. Obviously ND would be a big addition. scUM is less desirable than sow or Clemson but if you're getting 4.....scUM is still one of the top 15 programs in all-time winning percentage and has won 5 national titles.

It's okay for us to disagree. NCSU would be good. I just don't see them going alone.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

The Big 12 was given a media deal far better than what they warrant by the networks which wanted to save the conference. Due to that and the LHN, Texas is doing pretty well now. Yes other programs bolted from the Big 12 but they're still making bank and will continue to do so.

Do you know how much the UTX Athletics Department got from the LHN in the first full year???? $3.9 million! That's it based on public records documents! And I think those numbers could actually decline for the next couple of seasons based on the low number of cable networks LHN is on and advertiser's willingness to pay top dollar to advertise on a failing network.

From what I've read, and I'm admittedly not sure exactly how accurate the figures are, all 4 schools that left the Big-12 made more TV money than UTX made last year! Think about that. If that's true, Colorado made more TV revenue than Texas last year! Wouldn't that be a kick in the nuts!

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

Additionally, they can just sit back and wait for the carnage further east knowing they and their league will be the only viable option left for some valuable properties should it happen. If not, they enjoy their current TV contracts and the coming windfall of the Sugar Bowl deal with the SEC. I can't see how anybody would think they are in a worse position than they were a few years ago. Bevo will be able to replenish his depleted harem if he so chooses.

Sure, they will be able to add programs when the ACC likely dies, but how many of those are going to increase the revenue split of the existing members? The prevailing argument last Summer was that the only 2 programs that would increase revenue for the existing Big-12 members would be FSU and Notre Dame. Not even Clemson was expected to make the Big-12 members money. That's why Texas blocked them and only wanted FSU and Notre Dame.

The SEC Bowl game is certainly big and they'll see added revenue, but when you subtract the money they would be getting from the Fiesta Bowl, the final number may not be quite as awe inspiring and people make it out to be. That remains to be seem. Even if it's $5 million more, after the conference split, you're talking about $500,000 for UTX. Good money, but not a huge chunk.

Bottom line is if Texas thinks they just can just "sit back and wait" in the Big-12 and add schools like UL, Miami and Duke, mark my words, they are going to VERY quickly be looking up at big brother Texas A&M!

I just think they'd be smarter to go to 12 (FSU and Clemson) and stay at 12 until either more desirable candidates are available or they're forced to grow beyond 12.

[HungaryGator]

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

No they haven't! Notre Dame has aligned themselves with only conferences that have been willing to allow them be members only in non-football sports. They haven't talked with the SEC or Pac-12 either to the best of my knowledge. And the Big-12 told them no thanks. The Big-10, SEC and Pac-12 (and even Big-12) would be more than happy to have them, but only as full members.

The national versus regional is clearly an excuse. Notre Dame just gave up a lot of that to align with the ACC.

They have consistently refused to align with the Big 10. Yes, they don't want to give up their independence, but many of them clearly want to join the Big 10 least of all behind the ACC maybe even the PAC or Big 12. They really DO NOT WANT the Big 10. A lot of them feel this way.

Do you know how much the UTX Athletics Department got from the LHN in the first full year???? $3.9 million! That's it based on public records documents! And I think those numbers could actually decline for the next couple of seasons based on the low number of cable networks LHN is on and advertiser's willingness to pay top dollar to advertise on a failing network.

From what I've read, and I'm admittedly not sure exactly how accurate the figures are, all 4 schools that left the Big-12 made more TV money than UTX made last year! Think about that. If that's true, Colorado made more TV revenue than Texas last year! Wouldn't that be a kick in the nuts!

From what I've read Bevo once again made more money than anybody else. Dodds was even bragging about that and saying everything is A-OK based on the fact that they're making more money which is something that caused a lot of grumbling among their fans who are not happy with the state of the football and basketball programs. And.....I'm pretty sure they get paid more than just $3.9 mil by ESPN for the LHN annually regardless of how well it performs. That's what upset people a lot about the deal - all that guaranteed money for them which will give them an even greater competitive advantage.

Sure, they will be able to add programs when the ACC likely dies, but how many of those are going to increase the revenue split of the existing members? The prevailing argument last Summer was that the only 2 programs that would increase revenue for the existing Big-12 members would be FSU and Notre Dame. Not even Clemson was expected to make the Big-12 members money. That's why Texas blocked them and only wanted FSU and Notre Dame.

Clemson is iffy due to the small size of South Carolina. NC State would if it were left out after raids by the Big 10 and SEC. Notre Dame would and sow would. After those 4 it gets iffy though there are some like Louisville which I think is a better choice than West Virginia was.

The SEC Bowl game is certainly big and they'll see added revenue, but when you subtract the money they would be getting from the Fiesta Bowl, the final number may not be quite as awe inspiring and people make it out to be. That remains to be seem. Even if it's $5 million more, after the conference split, you're talking about $500,000 for UTX. Good money, but not a huge chunk.

I dunno. They and the SEC have cut out the middleman and own this bowl now.

Bottom line is if Texas thinks they just can just "sit back and wait" in the Big-12 and add schools like UL, Miami and Duke, mark my words, they are going to VERY quickly be looking up at big brother Texas A&M!

Just those? No. I agree with you there. Could I see those being thrown in to form a super conference if they were able to secure the more valuable properties? Yeah, I could see that. They certainly wouldn't pick any of those first, no argument there.

[atlantagator86]

To put some numbers to the revenue, consider the new SEC TV deals are expected to pay about $23-$25 million per member.

The new Big-12 deal currently pays about $18.7 million to each of it's 10 members. Add the LHN money ($3.9 million) and that put UTX at about $22.6 million per year. Texas A&M will already be earning more TV revenue than UTX.

Let's say the Big-12 expands to 16 teams as Hungary expects (sans Notre Dame who isn't going to any conference for a while) and adds FSU, Clemson, NCSU, Miami, UL and Duke. And those markets increases the TV contract revenue by 50% due to the additions of FL, NC, SC and KY. The Big-12 per member revenue split would actually drop to about $17.5 million.

[AzCatFan]

PAC-12 schools, including Colorado, are making $15 million from the most recent PAC-12 contract. That number will go up to $20 million a year by the time the contract runs out in a few years. And these numbers do not include any revenue generated by the PAC-12 Network. Despite the fact the PAC-12 has not signed an agreement with the largest provider, DirecTv, the PAC-12 has agreements with all other, major providers in the west, including Dish Network, Comcast, and Cox. In short, PAC-12 schools will make some money off the PAC-12 Network, though probably not as much as first projected.

Still, in my eyes, Bevo still holds the trump card with the PAC. Bevo knows that without Texas, the PAC's expansion options are severely limited. The PAC could add Oklahoma and Okie light to get to 14, but the costs outweigh the benefits, as both schools don't add that much of a tv market. The PAC could add the two Okie's, TTech and maybe Houston, but does anyone think TTech + Houston will give the PAC any real foothold in Texas? No. Bottom line is no Bevo, no homerun expansion for the PAC.

In my opinion, it's in the PAC's best interest for the ACC to survive (as mentioned before). If UNC decides it likes the ACC and doesn't move, I believe the ACC will survive, which will mean the Big 12 will too. The next best thing for the PAC would be Bevo having a 360 and suddenly realizing the PAC is their best option, and the PAC-16 is born.

[slique7]

ATL:

You make some great points. Ultimately, we don't know what will happen with UT, UNC, or anyone, but it's damn fun talking about it. One point I'd propose, is UT willing to take a slight discount, if the per team numbers where indeed less, to maintain it's brand footprint in the Big12? It's my belief, the second they sign up to play games way out west, A&M will be smiling ear to ear. I think they are too proud to "give up" their ground.

My original premise, regardless of what UT decides in terms of the Big12, is the SEC wants the Big12 to survive/prosper, as it's definitely in our best interest. I'll even say, one of the last things the SEC would want, is for UT to join the PAC. Imagine UT in the PAC, ND joining the BIG; would this not be disastrous, long term, for the SEC? While "disastrous" may be strong, as we will always have the South, they would have the money and power.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

They have consistently refused to align with the Big 10. Yes, they don't want to give up their independence, but many of them clearly want to join the Big 10 least of all behind the ACC maybe even the PAC or Big 12. They really DO NOT WANT the Big 10. A lot of them feel this way.

Think we're beating a dead horse here. I don't think Notre Dame aligning with the Big-10 has ever been seriously discussed because Notre Dame hasn't put football on the table. Period.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

From what I've read Bevo once again made more money than anybody else. Dodds was even bragging about that and saying everything is A-OK based on the fact that they're making more money which is something that caused a lot of grumbling among their fans who are not happy with the state of the football and basketball programs. And.....I'm pretty sure they get paid more than just $3.9 mil by ESPN for the LHN annually regardless of how well it performs. That's what upset people a lot about the deal - all that guaranteed money for them which will give them an even greater competitive advantage.

The $3.9 million come from public records. The overall split was about $7.9 million, but the UTX athletics department only gets half.

From what I've seen, there is no guaranteed money from the LHN. It's a partnership between ESPN, UTX and IMG. Everyone gets a split, but I'm not sure of the exact breakdown.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

Clemson is iffy due to the small size of South Carolina. NC State would if it were left out after raids by the Big 10 and SEC. Notre Dame would and sow would. After those 4 it gets iffy though there are some like Louisville which I think is a better choice than West Virginia was.

I guess maybe we'll just have to wait and see. UL did almost get chosen over WVU by the Big-10, but they were pretty desperate at the time to add anybody because there was a clause in their TV contract that if they didn't have 9 members, the TV contract was voided. Not really sure the Big-12 would have wanted to add WVU or UL otherwise at the time.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

I dunno. They and the SEC have cut out the middleman and own this bowl now.

Again, that remains to be seen.

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

Just those? No. I agree with you there. Could I see those being thrown in to form a super conference if they were able to secure the more valuable properties? Yeah, I could see that. They certainly wouldn't pick any of those first, no argument there.

No. I'm saying the Big-12 should consider taking FSU and Clemson and stop at 12 until they're either forced to expand or better candidates comes along.

You're saying they should continue to expand to at least 16. I just don't see Notre Dame as a candidate for ANY conference any time soon. With the NBC money they'll be getting soon, Notre Dame won't join ANY conference until forced to. To debate Big-10 versus Big-12 is really moot. They aren't going anywhere.

That leaves NCSU (possible but not highly likely in my view they are available to the Big-12), and then rounding out with the likes of UL, Miami, Duke, Pitt, Syracuse and a bunch or other mediocre programs. None of those schools would be worth expanding for. They could maybe justify taking NCSU and then one of those to get to 14 but I just can't see the Big-12 taking more than 1 filler school.

But I guess we'll see.

[HungaryGator]

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

To put some numbers to the revenue, consider the new SEC TV deals are expected to pay about $23-$25 million per member.

The new Big-12 deal currently pays about $18.7 million to each of it's 10 members. Add the LHN money ($3.9 million) and that put UTX at about $22.6 million per year. Texas A&M will already be earning more TV revenue than UTX.

Let's say the Big-12 expands to 16 teams as Hungary expects (sans Notre Dame who isn't going to any conference for a while) and adds FSU, Clemson, NCSU, Miami, UL and Duke. And those markets increases the TV contract revenue by 50% due to the additions of FL, NC, SC and KY. The Big-12 per member revenue split would actually drop to about $17.5 million.

They currently have
Texas 26 mil
Oklahoma 3.8mil
Iowa 3 mil
Kansas 2.8 mil
West Virginia 1.8 mil

Total = 37.4 million in their current footprint

They would gain:
Florida 19.3 mil
North Carolina 9.7 mil
South Carolina 4.7 mil
Kentucky 4.4 mil

Total = 38.1

They would more than double their current footprint at the cost of just 4 slots. I cannot believe that would be dillutive from a revenue perspective. That would make no sense.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by slique7

ATL:

You make some great points. Ultimately, we don't know what will happen with UT, UNC, or anyone, but it's damn fun talking about it. One point I'd propose, is UT willing to take a slight discount, if the per team numbers where indeed less, to maintain it's brand footprint in the Big12? It's my belief, the second they sign up to play games way out west, A&M will be smiling ear to ear. I think they are too proud to "give up" their ground.

My original premise, regardless of what UT decides in terms of the Big12, is the SEC wants the Big12 to survive/prosper, as it's definitely in our best interest. I'll even say, one of the last things the SEC would want, is for UT to join the PAC. Imagine UT in the PAC, ND joining the BIG; would this not be disastrous, long term, for the SEC? While "disastrous" may be strong, as we will always have the South, they would have the money and power.

I agree it's fun! The difficult part is to not really know the motivating factors for each school. I don't think they always do either.

Personally, I think that's exactly what UTX would like! I think they would prefer expansion to 12 and that's it. And ultimately, I think that's what will happen in the short-term. I could very easily see UVA and GT to the Big-12, FSU and Clemson to the Big-12, SEC staying right where they are and the ACC taking UConn and Cincy to get back to 12. And I reiterate short-term.

I think that's what the Pac-12 would like to see as well. I believe the Pac-12 has a much more vested interest in keeping the conference sizes small because they know if expansion armageddon comes, they will be the loser. They don't want to expand unless Texas is part of it.

The problem with Texas is their ego. Last Summer, by many accounts, everybody in the Big-12 agreed on FSU and Clemson and those schools were ready to move. But Texas blocked Clemson in order to pursue Notre Dame, who was never really an option. That pissed Clemson off and they cooled for a while. Just about the time they had FSU and Clemson back in line, the ACC pulled the Notre Dame/$50 million buyout to block the moves. At least that's how the story goes.

In the interim, I think FSU has really started to question the long-term future of the Big-12, which I just don't think is very solid, and they've decided to see if they can sell themselves to the Big-10 before making that decision.

[HungaryGator]

Originally Posted by atlantagator86

Think we're beating a dead horse here. I don't think Notre Dame aligning with the Big-10 has ever been seriously discussed because Notre Dame hasn't put football on the table. Period.

The Big 10 has discussed it with them many times for many years. They have consistently refused.

The $3.9 million come from public records. The overall split was about $7.9 million, but the UTX athletics department only gets half.

OK. Hmm. I'll have to look it up. My understanding was that ESPN guaranteed them $15 mil per year.

From what I've seen, there is no guaranteed money from the LHN. It's a partnership between ESPN, UTX and IMG. Everyone gets a split, but I'm not sure of the exact breakdown.

this is a good question.

Again, that remains to be seen.

according to everything we've heard they have. They own it and thus can't help but get a larger share of the cut than they had been getting.

No. I'm saying the Big-12 should consider taking FSU and Clemson and stop at 12 until they're either forced to expand or better candidates comes along.

You're saying they should continue to expand to at least 16. I just don't see Notre Dame as a candidate for ANY conference any time soon. With the NBC money they'll be getting soon, Notre Dame won't join ANY conference until forced to. To debate Big-10 versus Big-12 is really moot. They aren't going anywhere.

That leaves NCSU (possible but not highly likely in my view they are available to the Big-12), and then rounding out with the likes of UL, Miami, Duke, Pitt, Syracuse and a bunch or other mediocre programs. None of those schools would be worth expanding for. They could maybe justify taking NCSU and then one of those to get to 14 but I just can't see the Big-12 taking more than 1 filler school.

But I guess we'll see.

I think 14 and a holding pattern for ND is possible. The way I think NC State could be possible is if UNC heads to the SEC. The Big 10 wouldn't take NC State due to academic snobbery. The Big 12 would have no such hangups.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by HungaryGator

They currently have
Texas 26 mil
Oklahoma 3.8mil
Iowa 3 mil
Kansas 2.8 mil
West Virginia 1.8 mil

Total = 37.4 million in their current footprint

They would gain:
Florida 19.3 mil
North Carolina 9.7 mil
South Carolina 4.7 mil
Kentucky 4.4 mil

Total = 38.1

They would more than double their current footprint at the cost of just 4 slots. I cannot believe that would be dillutive from a revenue perspective. That would make no sense.

The difference is they have the top program in TX, OK, KS and WV and practically a monopoly of the major programs in all those states (except Texas A&M). Iowa is the only exception where they have the 2nd team. And they'd be adding no better than the 2nd team in those new states.

Plus, because they will have all kinds of gaps in their map, it would be a lot harder to sell regional coverage. What I mean is that the SEC Network can easily sell the fact that in Georgia, there aren't just UGA fans but fans of just about every SEC team, so there's going to be strong interest in most games.

The Big-12 is going to have a much tougher time convincing cable operators in WV that there's interest in anything but the WVU programming 1/12 or 1/16th of the programming on a Big-12 network.

Same deal when it comes to network region coverage of football games. The Big-12 is going to have a tough time getting anything but local market game coverage if they have a bunch of one off teams. But if they can get a cluster of say FSU, Clemson, GT and NCSU in contiguous states, they could probably get more regional coverage and even possibly in outer markets they don't have teams if there are teams with regional interest.