Gator Country

**GothamGator** · 02-17-2013, 10:10 AM

He thinks as things stand today, they are close, but not quite there. He gives some stats to back that up. He wouldn't be surprised to see Florida get a one seed, but thinks they have more work to do.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...other-new-no-1

Quote:

Gonzaga will almost certainly have to win out to have a shot at a No. 1 seed in March.

A lot of people think that Florida should be a No. 1 seed, but their profile just doesn't measure up yet. The Gators have just one top 25 RPI win (Marquette), although a couple others are close. Just four teams in 19 years have received one-seeds with only one top 25 win. There are no more such teams left on their schedule. Only two teams have been one-seeds with a record of 1-2 or worse against the top 25.

They also have only five top 50 wins, and Kentucky is one of those. It's not likely the Wildcats will be top 50 for long. Missouri is though, and the Gators still play them at least one more time. Only seven teams have received one-seeds with as few as five top 50 wins.

Florida is also something of a home-court hero, at least by 1-seed standards. They have yet to beat an at-large quality team away from home. Their best such win was over Middle Tennessee State at Tampa.

So, while I won't be surprised if Florida is a No. 1 seed a month from now, the Gators still have some work to do to make that happen.

ArtVandelay · 02-17-2013, 10:15 AM

All good points, until you measure them up against the other teams in the country and find out that their resume's aren't that much better.

Did he say what he thinks we need to do to earn that? He said he wouldn't be surprised if we are, but we still only have 1 Top 50 team on our schedule.

gatordavisl · 02-17-2013, 11:03 AM

It's similar to what many of us posted in a previous thread. The Gators have little room for error, given the SEC schedule. My thought was that we could lose one regular season, make the SEC tourney final and perform well. Otherwise, losing two regular season and winning the tourney might do it. Of course, it all depends upon the rest of the field. Teams like Indiana, L'ville, Mich, Duke have dropped some games, keeping us in the mix.We still have some potentially tough games at Mizzou and at UT (which appears to be coming along at this point).

GatorPlanet · 02-17-2013, 11:19 AM

His analysis is fair and objective. No problems with it.

The thing is, the top two seeds in each region are now, and will continue to be, in flux between now and Selection Sunday. The arguments for and against teams are all about the same. The Committee will evaluate based on all these various things, but they're also going to rely on gut instinct and eyeball tests. If Florida's SOS is not that impressive at that time, then they may actually say, "So what? The Gators have absolutely destroyed their opponents."

Our 2007 team had 3 straight losses to inferior teams late in the year, and other teams had better records. But the Committee said, "So what? We've seen the Gators, and frankly, they're the best team out there and everyone knows it." And they made us the overall #1 seed.

**sec1** · 02-17-2013, 11:19 AM

im sorry but i agree , we play great at home and choke against highly ranked teams away from home

ufgator4ever · 02-17-2013, 12:27 PM

The SEC is awful. The lack of competition, not the seeding is what may really come back to bite the gators. a 1,2 or 3 seed will be ok, but really need yeguette back for round of sixteen on.

GatorLurker · 02-17-2013, 12:50 PM

Jerry is putting way too much emphasis on RPI. Against Sagarin Top 50 the Gators are 5-2 and against Pomeroy Top 50 they are 6-2. There is no dearth of quality wins. The committee does look at things other than RPI.

sixoburn · 02-17-2013, 01:11 PM

He also doesn't mention scoring margin at all. While Florida is unusual in that it hasn't beaten a bunch of top 25 teams, it is also unusual in that it is absolutely crushing major conference competition (save for one game) at a level that exceeds pretty much any NCAA champion. I believe the RPI doesn't include scoring margin, but every analysis indicates that this does matter, and that there is a much bigger difference between a 20 point win and a 1 point win than a 1 point win and a 1 point loss, as far as predictive power goes.

**jareduf** · 02-17-2013, 01:23 PM

Our RPI has been between 3 and 4 all week, so I don't see why that would hurt Florida. The game at Missouri on Tuesday is a big one and may leave only 1 other tough game (Tenn). Missouri is going to be extra jacked on Tuesday so it will be a tough one.

**mdgator05** · 02-17-2013, 01:41 PM

Wisconsin is currently taking Ohio State to the woodshed, so *crosses fingers* they might be making a trip into the RPI Top 25 soon (they are already there in polls).

That Arizona loss really sucks though. I think we would be set up very well without it. As it stands, I think we might need to win out to get a 1 seed due to the weakness of our schedule.

rserina · 02-17-2013, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sec1

im sorry but i agree , we play great at home and choke against highly ranked teams away from home

Kansas State and Arky weren't ranked, so you have one game to bitch about. Good analysis.

For my part, I do agree with Palm. The SEC has been certifiably terrible this year, so it leaves us no margin for error.

On the other hand, seeding doesn't occur in a vacuum, so what happens with other teams actually matters. Given the revolving door at the top of the rankings, I don't see many teams that are locks. Miami still has to visit Duke, Indiana has a tough home stretch, lots of Big-10 teams need to play each other, etc.

gulfgator · 02-17-2013, 02:44 PM

It probably won't matter significantly if UF is a one or a two....There's a reasonable chance if we are a 1 or 2 we would potentially play the same team at the top of the other side of the region(the other 1 or 2). Of course, the road will be different. UF's RPI is very good now, probably will drop, but the S curve is the X factor, who knows what the committee will pump into that formula, but FWIW, this site has UF #2 currently: http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php

tebowharvin · 02-17-2013, 03:03 PM

RPI analysis is antiquated. Florida overall is the most efficient team in the nation and at the very least deserve a 1 seed. Even if they drop a game or two.

corpgator · 02-17-2013, 03:10 PM

Time and again has shown that win loss records mean nothing. It's how a team performs against the competition they play that matters.

Florida has been the best all season. We'll see how the committee rates them if Pomeroy still has us as the most efficient at the end of the year.

gatorbogey · 02-17-2013, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorLurker

Jerry is putting way too much emphasis on RPI. Against Sagarin Top 50 the Gators are 5-2 and against Pomeroy Top 50 they are 6-2. There is no dearth of quality wins. The committee does look at things other than RPI.

^^^ THIS!

Nicho · 02-17-2013, 04:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gulfgator

It probably won't matter significantly if UF is a one or a two....There's a reasonable chance if we are a 1 or 2 we would potentially play the same team at the top of the other side of the region(the other 1 or 2). Of course, the road will be different. UF's RPI is very good now, probably will drop, but the S curve is the X factor, who knows what the committee will pump into that formula, but FWIW, this site has UF #2 currently: http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php

Yep. And I think a #2 seed might feel like a slap in the face to our players, which could cure any complacency that might have set in after a highly successful season.

GatorLurker · 02-17-2013, 04:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gulfgator

It probably won't matter significantly if UF is a one or a two....

Tell me that if we are the 2 seed in the Indianapolis Regional with Indiana as the 1 and Butler as the 3.

gulfgator · 02-17-2013, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorLurker

Tell me that if we are the 2 seed in the Indianapolis Regional with Indiana as the 1 and Butler as the 3.

Could happen, sure. Maybe UF wants Indiana as the 1 if we were a two. Looking at the remaining schedules, you could make a case it may be more likely IU ends up seeded below us than the other way around. IU could be the 2 or 3, would that make playing them any easier? None of the "great" teams are really great this year, so it's hard to know.

gogators73 · 02-17-2013, 06:44 PM

Can anyone point to a link that says the Committee looks at Sagarin or pomeroy?

The committee looks at RPI and puts a big emphasis on it.

gatorbogey · 02-17-2013, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gogators73

Can anyone point to a link that says the Committee looks at Sagarin or pomeroy?

The committee looks at RPI and puts a big emphasis on it.

they unofficially study sagarin and pomeroy, but i don't think i've ever seen any of them admit it

officially, they use rpi; they'll refer to it when it fits their reasoning and not when it's nonsensical