SEC Standings and Rankings - In Depth Analysis

[GothamGator]

The number to the left of a team's name is its ranking on KenPom. To the right are the conference and overall record.

#01 Florida 10-1 20-3
#18 Kentucky 8-3 17-7
#73 Alabama 8-3 16-8
#25 Missouri 7-4 18-6
#37 Mississippi 7-4 18-6
#71 Arkansas 6-5 15-9
#117 Georgia 6-5 12-12
#89 Texas A&M 5-6 15-9
#96 Tennessee 5-6 13-10
#114 LSU 4-6 13-8
#138 Vanderbilt 3-8 9-14
#143 Auburn 3-8 9-15
#197 South Carolina 2-8 12-11
#251 Mississippi State 2-9 7-16

[GothamGator]

Florida's remaining games...

at #143 Auburn 3-8 9-15
at #25 Missouri 7-4 18-6
vs #71 Arkansas 6-5 15-9
at #96 Tennessee 5-6 13-10
vs #73 Alabama 8-3 16-8
vs #138 Vanderbilt 3-8 9-14
at #18 Kentucky 8-3 17-7

[GothamGator]

Here are the remaining games for the other teams that could challenge us for the SEC Championship.

Kentucky (2 games back)
at #96 Tennessee 5-6 13-10
vs #138 Vanderbilt 3-8 9-14
vs #25 Missouri 7-4 18-6
vs #251 Mississippi State 2-9 7-16
at #71 Arkansas 6-5 15-9
at #117 Georgia 6-5 12-12
vs #01 Florida 10-1 20-3


Alabama (2 games back)
vs #197 South Carolina 2-8 12-11
vs #251 Mississippi State 2-9 7-16
at #114 LSU 4-6 13-8
vs #143 Auburn 3-8 9-15
at #01 Florida 10-1 20-3
at #37 Mississippi 7-4 18-6
vs #117 Georgia 6-5 12-12

Missouri (3 games back)
at #71 Arkansas 6-5 15-9
vs #01 Florida 10-1 20-3
at #18 Kentucky 8-3 17-7
at #197 South Carolina 2-8 12-11
vs #114 LSU 4-6 13-8
vs #71 Arkansas 6-5 15-9
at #96 Tennessee 5-6 13-10

Mississippi (3 games back)
vs #117 Georgia 6-5 12-12
at #197 South Carolina 2-8 12-11
vs #143 Auburn 3-8 9-15
vs #89 Texas A&M 5-6 15-9
at #251 Mississippi State 2-9 7-16
vs #73 Alabama 8-3 16-8
at #114 LSU 4-6 13-8

[GothamGator]

Missouri has by far the toughest remaining schedule, with 5 of its remaining 7 games against top 100 teams. I could see them dropping a couple of more and finishing at 12-6 or even 11-7.

Ole Miss by contrast has the easiest remaining schedule, with only 2 of 7 games against top 100 teams, and both are at home. They could easily run the table or maybe have one off night to finish 14-4 or 13-5.

Alabama also has a fairly easy schedule from here, but its only 2 games against top 100 teams are on the road. The Tide should go 5-2 to finish at a highly respectable 13-5. Whether that will be enough to get them in the dance is the big question.

Kentucky is the wild card. Their remaining schedule is fairly tough, but they get their two toughest games (Mizzou and Florida) at home. Plus, there is the question of how well they play without Noel. The potential is there for everything from 2-5 to 7-0, but I will guess 4-3 for an overall mark of 12-6.

[GothamGator]

For the Mighty Gators, the schedule is probably tougher than for any of the others, but at least Florida has a solid cushion. The Gators are guaranteed at least a share of the SEC Championship if they finish 5-2 or better. That means even if Florida loses both of the tough road games at Missouri and at Kentucky, the Gators will claim their sixth SEC Championship so long as they don't slip up in any of the remaining games, with the toughest being at home against Alabama and Arkansas. Even with an unexpected 4-3 finish, either Alabama or Kentucky would have to run the table for Florida to be shut out of an SEC Championship.

[themistocles]

Originally Posted by GothamGator

For the Mighty Gators, the schedule is probably tougher than for any of the others, but at least Florida has a solid cushion. The Gators are guaranteed at least a share of the SEC Championship if they finish 5-2 or better. That means even if Florida loses both of the tough road games at Missouri and at Kentucky, the Gators will claim their sixth SEC Championship so long as they don't slip up in any of the remaining games, with the toughest being at home against Alabama and Arkansas. Even with an unexpected 4-3 finish, either Alabama or Kentucky would have to run the table for Florida to be shut out of an SEC Championship.

Interesting perspective, although, of course, Ky's rating at 18 comes from having Noel, and UF's rating of 1 comes from having Yeguete. Clearly, the Gators have dropped off after losing Yeguete (bad loss at Arky and two closer than should have been games against Miss St and Ky). How well Ky handles losing Noel has yet to be seen, and, in fact, it may actually improve the team as they become less dependent on a single player and are required to develop more of a team approach.

Of course, Goth, if Bama manages to overcome the Gator's home court advantage and defeat the Gators, then, their chances of running the remaining table are VERY HIGH. They have squeaked by a number of "better" opponents.

Another question is whether the Arky loss resulted from losing Yeguete, or from Arky being insanely hot, or whether it was merely a matchup phenomenon. After all, they lost their next game by more than 20 against a not-very-strong Vandy team.

Interesting, to say the least.

[ETGator1]

The problem for bama getting in the tourney is they have some ugly losses on the schedule that shouldn't have happened. IMO, bama is a bubble out team at this point. When the selection committee looks at those losses, bama will have had to do something special to get into the tourney. Beating UF in Gainesville would be a huge notch on their belt, but Horace Grant has to get his teams winning games they should win.

The 4 SEC teams currently with the most likely chance of getting into the NCAA tournament:

1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. Missouri
4. Mississippi

Depending on how things close out both within the conference and out, the SEC might only get three teams in.

[oneatatime]

I believe that Missouri is the second best team in the SEC, especially after Noel went down Tuesday.

There game at Arkansas Saturday is a big one.

After clubbing a terrible Mississippi State last night, if they can go to Fayetteville and gain a win there, they are going to have a lot of momentum with the Gators coming to town Tuesday night

[tampajack1]

Originally Posted by ETGator1

The problem for bama getting in the tourney is they have some ugly losses on the schedule that shouldn't have happened. IMO, bama is a bubble out team at this point. When the selection committee looks at those losses, bama will have had to do something special to get into the tourney. Beating UF in Gainesville would be a huge notch on their belt, but Horace Grant has to get his teams winning games they should win.

The 4 SEC teams currently with the most likely chance of getting into the NCAA tournament:

1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. Missouri
4. Mississippi

Depending on how things close out both within the conference and out, the SEC might only get three teams in.

Horace Grant????????? Is his brother, Harvey, an assistant coach? By the way, IMO, Missouri is the other good team in the conference and is as talented as UF. Missouri can be a big-time sleeper in the NCAA tournament.

[PSGator66]

I feel very good about our chances of winning the SEC.

[MJGator8104]

Really appreciate the analysis and links, Gotham. Thanks.

[gtr2x]

Miss St at #251! That's just sad. Guess they are ready for baseball season.

Unless Bama pulls the major upset in Gville, Gators are looking good. Mizzou may be the second best team in the conference, may even beat the Gators at home, but they cant win a road game, so they could easily lose 2 of their 4 remaing and they cant afford to lose any if they want to even tie for the championship.

If Bama goes 5-2, they will have an SEc record of 11-5, that should be more than good enough to get them a spot, even 4-3 and 10-6 should do it imo. That next to last game against OLe Miss will be huge for both teams. Success in the SEC tourney will be more important than usual this year. I doubt that Calipari will down play it this yr. Ky's NCAA spot could easily hinge on a good showing there.

[dalwood13]

Originally Posted by themistocles

Interesting perspective, although, of course, Ky's rating at 18 comes from having Noel, and UF's rating of 1 comes from having Yeguete. Clearly, the Gators have dropped off after losing Yeguete (bad loss at Arky and two closer than should have been games against Miss St and Ky). How well Ky handles losing Noel has yet to be seen, and, in fact, it may actually improve the team as they become less dependent on a single player and are required to develop more of a team approach.

Of course, Goth, if Bama manages to overcome the Gator's home court advantage and defeat the Gators, then, their chances of running the remaining table are VERY HIGH. They have squeaked by a number of "better" opponents.

Another question is whether the Arky loss resulted from losing Yeguete, or from Arky being insanely hot, or whether it was merely a matchup phenomenon. After all, they lost their next game by more than 20 against a not-very-strong Vandy team.

Interesting, to say the least.

Closer than should have been? We beat Mississippi State by 25 and Kentucky by 17. How much bigger do the wins need to be? I think we've recovered pretty well from losing Yeguete and may be better in the long run, if he is able to return, due to the added pressure and development Prather and Frazier will have going forward.

[Noahtogo24]

The sad thing is that looking at the Gator's wins by RPI, Miss State is our second worst win to date.

[themistocles]

Originally Posted by dalwood13

Closer than should have been? We beat Mississippi State by 25 and Kentucky by 17. How much bigger do the wins need to be? I think we've recovered pretty well from losing Yeguete and may be better in the long run, if he is able to return, due to the added pressure and development Prather and Frazier will have going forward.

You might recall that the Miss St team the Gators played was down about 3 players from they team they crushed in Starkville earlier by more than 30 points.

Kentucky should not even be on the same floor as the Gators, as was pretty apparent from the Game Saturday.

Yeguete has a monstrous influence on this team's performance. Note that he disappeared against K-State and it was a loss (probably the knee). He also disappeared against Arky and the result was a loss (probably the knee).

I think a Healthy Yeguete is worth, on average, about a 10 point difference per game, so, my estimate would be, with Yeguete, a 35-40 point victory over Miss State, and a 25 point victory over Ky, that is why I suggested, less than expected.

[GothamGator]

You are right about Alabama being a team on the wrong side of the bubble. Their RPI is 61, and they've got four losses to teams rated 100 or worse. Their best win is against #43, and their best win as an away team is #119.

It's not even clear that a 5-2 finish would be enough. They ultimately may need to beat one of the other top teams either in the regular season or SEC Tournament.

[David Shepherd]

Not including playing the Gators

KY or MO are guaranteed a loss on 2/23 so even if Mo were to beat the Gators we will get help on 2/23 in that either Mo will get a 5th loss of UK a 4th.

Alabama and Ole Miss play 3/5 so the same deal happens so two of the teams within shot of us are gonna get at least one loss.

Of course right now we would like to see Bama take the loss here and UK take the loss against MO.

Mo has the toughest stretch of games at Hogs, hosting us then heading to Lexington in 8 days.

Everyone has two straight road games left-

UF at Auburn, then MO

KY at Ark then UGA

Bama at UF then Ole Miss

MO at KY then USC

I really think the Gators could lose two and win it by two games. Just no one in the league, at this point, has shown they can get on a roll and win five SEC in a row other than UK and UF and UK's chances are severely diminished of that happening again.

Last five games SEC

UF 4-1
UK 4-1
MO 3-2
OM 1-4 (they did win 6 in a row to start league play)
AL 4-1

Also since the loss the Gators are 2-0 average 76 a game giving up 55.

[David Shepherd]

While it is not officially a two team race, it does seem to be one for all intents and purposes.

UK received their 4th loss today and Missouri their fifth.

For Missouri to win they would have to have the Gators lose 4 of 6 , have Alabama lose 3 or 6 while Missouri would need to win all their games...plus they trail UK and Miss at this point by a game. Too many teams to climb over in just six games.

KY was probably done when Noel went down but then losing to UT by 30?

[ufgator4ever]

If Horace Grant coaches bama, I could see them losing out.

[StrangeGator]

Originally Posted by themistocles

You might recall that the Miss St team the Gators played was down about 3 players from they team they crushed in Starkville earlier by more than 30 points.

Kentucky should not even be on the same floor as the Gators, as was pretty apparent from the Game Saturday.

Yeguete has a monstrous influence on this team's performance. Note that he disappeared against K-State and it was a loss (probably the knee). He also disappeared against Arky and the result was a loss (probably the knee).

I think a Healthy Yeguete is worth, on average, about a 10 point difference per game, so, my estimate would be, with Yeguete, a 35-40 point victory over Miss State, and a 25 point victory over Ky, that is why I suggested, less than expected.

So we would have won by 40 over Auburn yesterday? I don't see how we could have played better than we did. We may have held them under 50 points, grabbed a few more rebounds, but we might have had fewer assists and probably fewer points. Prather and Frazier are getting more minutes and contributing a lot on offense. Sure, I want Yeguette back, but we're in fine shape to finish out our conference schedule without him.