North Korea detonates another nuke

[gatorev12]

Originally Posted by MastaG8r

Okay. Good points, hard to argue with any of that. But in the long run wouldn't it still be a better outcome than the status quo? Didn't it all work out okay for Germany in the end? There isn't a school of thought over there that reunification was a mistake, is there? I'm asking, not challenging.

In the long run, of course it'd be better for the North Koreans. And yes, almost anything is preferable to the status quo.

Not saying the concept of reunification is a bad idea by any means...just observing that the South Koreans themselves aren't exactly pushing for it after getting a firsthand look at the cost and expenses associated with German reunification.

In the short and medium term, you're asking millions of South Koreans to fork over billions of dollars in extra taxes a year--and for little immediate benefit. South Koreans are no different from anyone else: they'd obviously prefer lower taxes rather than higher ones.

Maybe I'm revealing some ethno-prejudiced ignorance but it seems to me that Asians have simpler needs and lifestyles than Europeans, and that without taking too much of a hit on their own economy, the South Koreans could elevate the quality of life in the North to something that would be marginally decent by their standards.

Perhaps. Really, any change would be positive for North Koreans. The status quo is essentially a feudal lifestyle of endless toil with almost no benefits. Electricity and running water would be luxuries to the vast majority of their population.

More likely though, any reunification would bring a flood of Northerners to Southern cities due to the better economic opportunities and better prospects. Another thing South Koreans are understandably wary about.

I wonder how Japan would feel about that. Or Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc. A reunified Korea would become a major economic and political power player.

South Korea alone is already one of the world's leading economies (I believe they're around #15 by most economic indicators), and the only Asian countries ahead of them are China and Japan. The cost of reunification will easily be an anchor on continued South Korean economic growth though--as it was for Germany during the 1990s.

Long-term though, as you're implying here, a reunified Korea would be an even bigger regional and world player since North Korea's natural resources have barely been tapped--and the North has what many people believe are the world's second-largest deposits of rare-earth minerals; but obviously lacks the money and the infrastructure to mine and sell them.

[wargunfan]

Originally Posted by gatorev12

The East Germans actually had an educated population and a somewhat functioning economy. Their economy and standard of living was nowhere near the same as those in West Germany or Western Europe, but still light-years ahead of where North Korea is now.

And, despite all that, reunification has cost billions of dollars in aid, subsidies, and other government spending.

North Koreans today have no functioning economy, are severely malnourished, have little to no education, and the economic costs are going to be far, far greater to catch them up to South Korean standards.

Even if reunification were to happen today, it's already too late to help the adult population of North Korea. They will be a charity operation for South Korea. The hope lies with the next generation and beyond. I suggest reading "Escape from Camp 14" for a stark look at how the North Korean regime treats its own people.

[RealGatorFan]

We should invade NK and oust everyone wearing a military uniform. Only way and if we don't watch NK use a nuke on somebody not NK.

[Swampmaster]

hopefully, nk's psycho leaders don't launch a nuclear rocket toward the us anytime soon

[HALLGATOR]

Originally Posted by RealGatorFan

We should invade NK and oust everyone wearing a military uniform. Only way and if we don't watch NK use a nuke on somebody not NK.

Do you think China is just going to sit by and watch an invasion happen? They didn't last time.

[gatorev12]

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

Do you think China is just going to sit by and watch an invasion happen? They didn't last time.

Different times back then though. As big a headache as North Korea is for them, there's certainly a case to be made that they'd do just that. A war with South Korea, the US, and Japan would be enormously expensive for them (it's largely irrelevant who would win in that conflict because the economic and social pain it'd cause the Chinese govt would most certainly not be worth it).

About the only use North Korea has for the Chinese currently is to act as a check on the rise of South Korea and Japan. Aside from that, they get precious little benefit for supporting them.

[Itssaul]

If NK attacks any ally of the US, I'm pretty sure we'd talk to china before annihilating NK. No motive to inhabit that land or save the locals. It'll be salted earth in days and poor Japan would get some radiation.

[HALLGATOR]

Originally Posted by gatorev12

Different times back then though. As big a headache as North Korea is for them, there's certainly a case to be made that they'd do just that. A war with South Korea, the US, and Japan would be enormously expensive for them (it's largely irrelevant who would win in that conflict because the economic and social pain it'd cause the Chinese govt would most certainly not be worth it).

About the only use North Korea has for the Chinese currently is to act as a check on the rise of South Korea and Japan. Aside from that, they get precious little benefit for supporting them.

No doubt it was different but China always has to be figured into the equation when dealing with N. Korea. What they would do if we, along with S. Korea, attacked is a subject for a lot of speculation and not all of it good. The other thing is how close Seoul is to the border and the amount of damage the North could do to a city with around 10 million inhabitants.

[gatorev12]

Originally Posted by HALLGATOR

No doubt it was different but China always has to be figured into the equation when dealing with N. Korea. What they would do if we, along with S. Korea, attacked is a subject for a lot of speculation and not all of it good. The other thing is how close Seoul is to the border and the amount of damage the North could do to a city with around 10 million inhabitants.

True enough, Hall.

IMHO, I seriously doubt China would leap to the defense of North Korea given how drastically the two countries have diverted from one another. Back in the early 1950s, both were hardline communist states and shared similar political ideologies and geopolitical goals.

Now, China's no longer committed to international communism and their leadership is focused on continuing their rapid social and economic rise. If anything, North Korea is an annoying younger stepbrother who's constantly asking for money, constantly being a nuisance for you and others, and you're constantly expected to deal with it--even when you'd rather be doing other things and, truthfully, have little influence over the situation anyway.

As with all things, it depends on the situation...but I'll say this: if North Korea provokes a war or does something stupid, I honestly don't see the Chinese getting involved. The US would go to them directly and say: "here's what we're doing, they clearly deserve it...are you going to be a problem?" China will likely make some noise at the UN or other diplomatic channels...but I highly doubt they commit troops to a conflict.

[HALLGATOR]

There is always the possibility China would love to see N. Korea, and it's starving citizens, become the problem of S. Korea. It would be interesting to know if any high level talks along this line have ever gained momentum. I don't doubt it may have been breached in a diplomatic way but I wonder if anything serious has ever come out of it.