Champ Check: Only Indiana, Duke, Florida pass all tests

[InstiGATOR1]

This article is pre UK game. Here is this weeks openning paragraph:

Just three weeks ago, 10 teams met the statistical conditions of the last 12 champions. Since then, conference play has weeded out four pretenders. North Carolina State, Minnesota, Ohio State and Kansas have all fallen by the wayside over the last handful of games. They no longer possess all of these eight "champ-worthy" credentials.

Here is the link to the rest:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebask...pass-all-tests

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Love this series.

[themistocles]

As I noted in the earlier thread, his Champ rational is flawed simply because he sets the standards based on what those teams did specifically (.1 point per game too low in scoring loses you the Champ criterion. .1 point too high on defense does the same). You simply can't legitimately apply such precise criteria and have reasonable eliminations.

This year's winner may score 60 points per game, but only give up 20. You simply cannot set criteria like that.

[UFG8rGuy3283]

Originally Posted by themistocles

As I noted in the earlier thread, his Champ rational is flawed simply because he sets the standards based on what those teams did specifically (.1 point per game too low in scoring loses you the Champ criterion. .1 point too high on defense does the same). You simply can't legitimately apply such precise criteria and have reasonable eliminations.

This year's winner may score 60 points per game, but only give up 20. You simply cannot set criteria like that.

Agree with your thought process here. The criteria may be similar based on historical data, but there are always statistical anomolies that throw formulas/theories like these off every once in a while.

For example, there is no team that is more flawed and a paper tiger at the top than Duke. I still don't know how they continue to win and are not being exposed by the NC States of the ACC. Anyone who buys into them more than UF doesn't watch the games.

[InstiGATOR1]

Originally Posted by themistocles

As I noted in the earlier thread, his Champ rational is flawed simply because he sets the standards based on what those teams did specifically (.1 point per game too low in scoring loses you the Champ criterion. .1 point too high on defense does the same). You simply can't legitimately apply such precise criteria and have reasonable eliminations.

This year's winner may score 60 points per game, but only give up 20. You simply cannot set criteria like that.

Nor are they claiming to do more than use a filtering method. Filters work until they don't. They may identify a team that is thought of as a contender that is not and be useful. They may miss on a championship team that is outside prior experience and be worthless.

[Gator_Bite]

Originally Posted by themistocles

As I noted in the earlier thread, his Champ rational is flawed simply because he sets the standards based on what those teams did specifically (.1 point per game too low in scoring loses you the Champ criterion. .1 point too high on defense does the same). You simply can't legitimately apply such precise criteria and have reasonable eliminations.

This year's winner may score 60 points per game, but only give up 20. You simply cannot set criteria like that

Which is why he lists 3 different criteria to make sure it's not a fluke. The more lists he provides the better chance a team has of being a legit threat

Indiana, Duke & Florida meet the criteria in all 3 lists proving their not flukes in anything

And with Ryan Kelly on the floor, Duke is 100% a National Title Threat. It actually says a lot about them that they can lose a potential All American & not completely suck afterwards. They're significantly worse without him, but still a #1 Seed

[ArtVandelay]

Originally Posted by themistocles

This year's winner may score 60 points per game, but only give up 20. You simply cannot set criteria like that.

I hope we aren't in the same bracket as they are!!!

[ArtVandelay]

Duke is out based on the fact that they lost a game by 27 points. That is a well known stat for former champions and usually included in these lists.

[Osiris_DPM]

Originally Posted by ArtVandelay

Duke is out based on the fact that they lost a game by 27 points. That is a well known stat for former champions and usually included in these lists.

Then I'm sure glad we closed up that 27 point deficit against Arkansas late in the game. I'd hate to think that despite our body of work and subsequent play, our title hopes were extinguished based on a cold shooting night against a very hot shooting team that scored 35 of its points in the first 10 minutes.