Gator Country

gatorbogey · 02-10-2013, 08:39 AM

any lines out for tuesday's matchup in the o'dome between Kentucky and Florida?

looking at sagarin (from friday):

College Basketball 2012-2013 Div I games only through 2013 February 8 Friday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | ELO_SCORE | PREDICTOR
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 3.32] [ 3.21] [ 3.54]

2 Florida = 92.90 18 3 78.07( 16) 2 2 | 4 2 | 91.47 4 | 95.13 1
16 Kentucky = 87.70 16 6 75.91( 66) 0 3 | 2 4 | 86.59 20 | 88.99 12

gators would be favored by 9.5 (95.13-88.99+3.54) but that really doesn't factor in the loss of WY.

gatorbogey · 02-10-2013, 10:01 PM

gators remain atop the sagarin
and pomeroy

sagarin >> http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sport...in/bkt1213.htm

UFSECKINGS · 02-10-2013, 10:51 PM

Purely a guess on my part, I'd say UF -7

REM08 · 02-11-2013, 04:24 PM

UF -11

**ThePlayer** · 02-11-2013, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by REM08

UF -11

Are you serious about that?
I would thoroughly enjoy such a statement win.
We need something to lift Gator Nation after losing Will.

REM08 · 02-11-2013, 04:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThePlayer

Are you serious about that?
I would thoroughly enjoy such a statement win.
We need something to lift Gator Nation after losing Will.

Thats what the game opened up at.

GatorLurker · 02-11-2013, 05:02 PM

Not a bad line, but I don't think the game will end up that way.

The UK boys will be sky high, but they are young. Either it will be a close game or they get blown out.

Of course I might be totally wrong on this and would be very happy to be so.

g8torjeff · 02-11-2013, 05:21 PM

Opened at 11.5 or 11 and is now 10. Pretty high spread IMO.

akaGatorhoops · 02-11-2013, 06:14 PM

I figured it would be about an 8 point margin. The dropping line suggests early money on uk.

InstiGATOR1 · 02-11-2013, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by akaGatorhoops

I figured it would be about an 8 point margin. The dropping line suggests early money on uk.

Or maybe the Kentucky money is on UK. I suspect their are more casual gamblers in Kentucky than in Florida.

Brewski · 02-11-2013, 07:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by InstiGATOR1

Or maybe the Kentucky money is on UK. I suspect their are more casual gamblers in Kentucky than in Florida.

We probably have 5 x the population of Kentucky. As far as number of gamblers...would be an interesting stat.

REM08 · 02-11-2013, 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brewski

We probably have 5 x the population of Kentucky. As far as number of gamblers...would be an interesting stat.

I don't know the exact stat for this, but I did attend a conference on compulsive gambling a couple weeks ago (didn't stay at a Holiday Inn though). It suggested that, while every state is effected by gambling and has a large number of gamblers in it, Kentucky doesn't have quite the % that many other states do because of how rural most of the state is (a big body of land with only two decent size cities - and even they are pretty small).

Sure anyone - rural or otherwise - has access to sports betting, but my guess is that Florida would have a FAR greater number of frequent sports betters than a state like Kentucky. The only possible equalizer here might be the fact that its a Kentucky basketball game. Maybe it could bring enough betters out of the woodwork to offset Florida gamblers that may be more focused on any other number of sports/teams in the state. I still doubt it but sure I'm certainly far from an expert on this. My bet (...) is that the line will be relatively unaffected by fans of either team.

g8rboy · 02-11-2013, 08:14 PM

Gators by 20

**ThePlayer** · 02-11-2013, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by g8rboy

Gators by 20

We need to hit our 3's for that to happen...and KB needs to be "on" all night.
Hope Murph & Co. are up to the challenge for the sake of Gator Nation.

**richardtangeman** · 02-11-2013, 09:31 PM

Drive and kick-out for deep shot before UF guards get to deep.

mktmaker · 02-12-2013, 09:49 AM

current line (as of 9:45 a.m. Tuesday) is Florida -10

ofmgator · 02-12-2013, 11:12 AM

My only worry is that if we can lose to an Arkansas we can lose to anyone if we're not sharp and disciplined.

dadx4 · 02-12-2013, 11:41 AM

Yep...I also think Arkansas would have beaten any team in the country that night.

**mrgator** · 02-12-2013, 11:55 AM

I think we either lose close or beat them by 15+. Which translates to my belief that this game will play out like the Ole Miss game or the Arky game. If UK gets hot early and we don't respond or start out cold then I think we lose. But if we set a steady defensive tempo early and get them out of rhythm then they will start to push the issue and that's when their 13+ turnovers a game are going to bite them in the butt.

gatorbogey · 02-12-2013, 11:59 AM

one thing that helps for tonight: home crowd. rowdy reptiles! the team can draw energy from the crowd to buoy any comebacks that are needed.