Gator Baseball 2013 Season Prediction Thread

[jsc28]

Hey last year Zona hit 23 HRs TOTAL as a team. Their leading guy had 8.

Obviously homers are nice, but the game is shifting much more to defense and pitching. I like our chances in both of those areas.

[stingbb]

Originally Posted by MadduxFanII

I really like Gushue. Showed a lot of power and plate discipline last year. Needs to tighten up some holes in his swing, as a lot of freshmen did, but if you can draw walks and hit for power you can do a lot.

Ramjit's been around long enough that we pretty know what he is. I like him well enough as a hitter, but I think he's far better as a supporting bat for a loaded lineup than a middle-of-the-order type relied upon to generate a lot of offense.

Shafer...I don't know. I'm curious about him. His numbers last year were pretty awful, but he played a lot on a loaded team as a true freshman, and from what little I saw of him his swing and stance looked pretty good. We'll have to see.

Shafer batted higher last year than both Ramjit and Turgeon. He also had more RBI's than Ramjit and just three less for the season than Turgeon.

Shafer's numbers were not awful last year and he will be one of the better players on this year's team.

[DoubleDown11]

Arizona plays in a park with 410 foot power alleys. They're not exactly a great comparison.

It is true, however, that college baseball is not a power sport anymore. That doesn't mean that you don't still need to generate some offense, though, which is the basic point of the discussion.

[jsc28]

Originally Posted by DoubleDown11

Arizona plays in a park with 410 foot power alleys. They're not exactly a great comparison.

It is true, however, that college baseball is not a power sport anymore. That doesn't mean that you don't still need to generate some offense, though, which is the basic point of the discussion.

True. They also hit a lot of doubles and had a high BA.

[MadduxFanII]

Originally Posted by stingbb

Shafer batted higher last year than both Ramjit and Turgeon. He also had more RBI's than Ramjit and just three less for the season than Turgeon.

Shafer's numbers were not awful last year and he will be one of the better players on this year's team.

It's a shame then that I don't care very much about batting average or RBIs, because otherwise this would re-assure me.

Yes, Shafer hit .284, which is nice. The .333 slugging percentage and .330 on-base percentage, on the other hand, were really quite awful.

[apkgator]

Originally Posted by MadduxFanII

It's a shame then that I don't care very much about batting average or RBIs, because otherwise this would re-assure me.

Yes, Shafer hit .284, which is nice. The .333 slugging percentage and .330 on-base percentage, on the other hand, were really quite awful.

But you "really like" Gushue, who hit .206 and had an OB% of .329? His only plus on Shafer was 5 homers (they both had 8 doubles).
I agree Shafer probably needs to be more selective at the plate.

[MadduxFanII]

Originally Posted by apkgator

But you "really like" Gushue, who hit .206 and had an OB% of .329? His only plus on Shafer was 5 homers (they both had 8 doubles).
I agree Shafer probably needs to be more selective at the plate.

First, those five home runs aren't nothing. I know we're all supposed to think that power is now irrelevant, but home runs are good things. They mean that Gushue is tied for our leading returning home run hitter, which, admittedly, says more about our returners than Gushue.

Second, the fact that Gushue's OBP is as close to Shafer's as it is despite hitting 80 points lower is what I like about Gushue. You need a boat load of plate discipline to put up an OBP that's about 120 points higher your batting average. Batting average can be fluky; power and patience endure.

But yes, Taylor obviously has a lot to work on with his swing.

[DoubleDown11]

FWIW, Shafer was really stinging the ball at the end of the season last year. He was 7-16 between NC State and Omaha, and that was against some good pitchers. Plus he had a good summer in the Cape. Your points about his OBP and SLG are very valid, but I do think there were some signs that he could make that freshman to sophomore leap we've seen so many times over the years.

[MadduxFanII]

Originally Posted by DoubleDown11

FWIW, Shafer was really stinging the ball at the end of the season last year. He was 7-16 between NC State and Omaha, and that was against some good pitchers. Plus he had a good summer in the Cape. Your points about his OBP and SLG are very valid, but I do think there were some signs that he could make that freshman to sophomore leap we've seen so many times over the years.

Sure. I'm certainly not writing him off on the basis of his freshman performance. And like I said, I was reasonably impressed when I got a chance to watch him. It's not like we have a plethora of exceptional options in the OF, anyway, so Shafer's going to get his chance to prove himself.

[apkgator]

Originally Posted by MadduxFanII

First, those five home runs aren't nothing. I know we're all supposed to think that power is now irrelevant, but home runs are good things. They mean that Gushue is tied for our leading returning home run hitter, which, admittedly, says more about our returners than Gushue.

Second, the fact that Gushue's OBP is as close to Shafer's as it is despite hitting 80 points lower is what I like about Gushue. You need a boat load of plate discipline to put up an OBP that's about 120 points higher your batting average. Batting average can be fluky; power and patience endure.

But yes, Taylor obviously has a lot to work on with his swing.

Lot easier to get 120 points on the OBP when the average is that low.
But ultimately the issue becomes a guy with patience and a good eye vs a guy that is agressive and makes real solid contact. There isn't a right or wrong, although my preference would be for the contact hitter. Hopefully both have improved the weak aspect of their game and become more balanced.

[stingbb]

Originally Posted by MadduxFanII

Sure. I'm certainly not writing him off on the basis of his freshman performance. And like I said, I was reasonably impressed when I got a chance to watch him. It's not like we have a plethora of exceptional options in the OF, anyway, so Shafer's going to get his chance to prove himself.

Shafer proved himself last year, especially during postseason play when like Apk noted, he hit the ball as well as anyone on the team.

Sure, the kid needs to get better and he will. But, again, he is the leading returner in BA and 2nd in RBI, so,it is not like he had a bad FR season. Schafer will bat in the 3-6 hole and may well also be our closer when all is said and done.

[MadduxFanII]

Sure, the kid needs to get better and he will. But, again, he is the leading returner in BA and 2nd in RBI, so,it is not like he had a bad FR season. Schafer will bat in the 3-6 hole and may well also be our closer when all is said and done.

He's the leading returner in those categories, neither of which I place much value on, because just about everyone who contributed to last year's offense is gone. And that's the point I made initially: if your two most proven hitters are Casey Turgeon and a corner outfielder who hit 284/.330/.333, then you're pretty much just looking at question marks up and down the lineup. Which is not good.

[stingbb]

Originally Posted by MadduxFanII

He's the leading returner in those categories, neither of which I place much value on, because just about everyone who contributed to last year's offense is gone. And that's the point I made initially: if your two most proven hitters are Casey Turgeon and a corner outfielder who hit 284/.330/.333, then you're pretty much just looking at question marks up and down the lineup. Which is not good.

I agree... scoring runs will be an issue all season. Shaver, Gushue, Tobias and even Turgeon have to take the next step, but the good news is all are capable.

[jsc28]

Any updates on Ratliff's eligibility?

[gatorbogey]

4 days until first pitch, any more predictions, updates, comments etc?

[IowaGator]

I think the demonstration of team work from other teams on campus will not be lost on these guys. And that will result in another trip to Omaha when all is said and done. Let's play ball!!

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Gator Country

[dadx4]

I see your 32-24 and I raise you to 40-16. Host regional but lose in the final thus not making it to supers.

[gatorbogey]

checking on predictions....how are we doing compared to your preconceptions?

Duke, win the series 2-1 (2-1) yep, check
@UCF, mid-week loss (2-2) we won!, yeah!
Ga Southern, back to back midweek loss (2-3) yep, check
FGCU, win series, 2-1 (4-4) nope, got swept!
N Fla, a rare mid-week win over the ospreys (5-4) nope, birds clipped us yet again
miami, lose series, 1-2 (6-6) nope wrong here too, we won the series!
jax, sweep mid-week series, 2-0 (8-6) yep, check
indiana, sweep series, 3-0 (11-6) nope, lost the series! ouch!
fsu, loss (11-7) unfortunately guessed it, check
instead of 11-7 we're 7-9 at this stage.

UK, lose series, 1-2 (12-9) (1-2)
N Fla, win (13-9)
@Vandy, lose series, 1-2 (14-11) (2-4)
fsu in jax, win, (15-11)
ole miss, lose series, 1-2 (16-13) (3-6)
UCF, win (17-13)
@ miss state, lose series, 1-2 (18-15) (4-8)
@fsu, loss (18-16)
S Carolina, lose series, 1-2 (19-18) (5-10)
@FGCU, loss, (19-19)
@missouri, sweep series (22-19) (8-10)
USF, win (23-19)
Tenn, sweep series, 3-0 (26-19) (11-10)
@LSU, get swept, 0-3 (26-22) (11-13)
FAMU, mid-week win
FAU, back to back mid-week win (28-22)
Auburn, series win, 2-1, (30-23) (13-14)
@UGA, series win, 2-1 (32-24) (15-15)

squeak into the SEC tourney; win 2 in hoover to secure a ncaa bid. (34-26)
3-seed on the road in the ncaa regionals, win 1 but don't advance. finish 35-28

Read more: http://www.gatorcountry.com/swampgas...#ixzz2NTlhaS5U

[jsc28]

Originally Posted by jsc28

#7 National seed. Who knows from there...

Maybe I meant #7 Floridian seed?

Hey still time to come together...

[gtr2x]

At least I got the Miami series right. That prediction of a #2 seed in the Regional looks a long way off right now, but in all fairness that was before Whitson went down and Thompson retired. You never know, maybe some of the new guys will step up in conference play and get this thing turned around. I think Vandy got off to a similar start last year and came around late.

On the other hand softball is doing better than even the most optimistic expected.