BCS Title Hypothetical

[whitelakegator]

CWM has done a great job so far. Next year will be telling. If he can manage ten wins in '13 then he's a keeper. 8-5? The seat will be very very warm. I'm worried that he's too conservative on offense(or JD just plain stinks). Hopefully, he gets out of his offensive comfort zone and opens it up next year.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

I prefer advanced stats used correctly. Now we don't have to bust out confidence intervals here, but we can't stoop so low to pick arbitrary numbers in small sample sizes to try to prove a point.

The data point I responded to was the data point you specifically chose to remark on (calling my post "ridiculous").

My sample size was every national championship team in the BCS era. With our sample size exactly equal to our population, what confidence level and confidence interval should we get in our data from a 100% sample size?

No B.S. - just a straight answer, Mr Statistics.

Of course we could increase the population from BCS champions to all CFB champions. But that would just further highlight the point in my original post, as most of CFB history saw far, far less passing than we have in the past couple of decades.

If you feel like doing the legwork to increase the target population and increase the sample size appropriately, have at it.

If not, we can all assume this is just another in a series of deflections.... that I would hope we woudn't "stoop so low" to.

[RealDeal]

the 2012 offense was bad--no way to sugarcoat it. but, UF had bad wide receivers, 1 decent RB and a mediocre Oline---not a good combination. Alabama has 3 O-lineman who may go in rounds 1-2 of the draft, a RB who will go in the top 15 and a QB who has won 2 straight national titles, good WRs---big differences.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

CWM has done a great job so far. Next year will be telling. If he can manage ten wins in '13 then he's a keeper. 8-5? The seat will be very very warm. I'm worried that he's too conservative on offense(or JD just plain stinks). Hopefully, he gets out of his offensive comfort zone and opens it up next year.

Fair points.

I expect the offense will be better, with a better and deeper OL, more experience at QB, and more talent at WR. And perhaps in part from need, depending on how quickly our defense comes around.

And we are going to win at least 10 games this season. No worries there.

[GatorByte]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

And we are going to win at least 10 games this season. No worries there.

"No worries" about winning at least 10 games is pretty unrealistic imo.

Serious question... what do think CWM would be thinking if he read a statement like that?

[whitelakegator]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

Fair points.

I expect the offense will be better, with a better and deeper OL, more experience at QB, and more talent at WR. And perhaps in part from need, depending on how quickly our defense comes around.

And we are going to win at least 10 games this season. No worries there.

Losing Quinn, Floyd, Elam, and five others on defense is the problem. We won 11 games with a triple digit offense(not triple option). Reason? The defense. We won't have that luxury next season. The o line and wrs aren't as bad as people make them sound. Too many times you saw wrs running open and JD just couldn't see them. That is a problem. It is even a bigger problem when it is the last game of the season after weeks of bowl game practice.

I don't buy into that "new system" baloney. So if Aaron Murray got a new OC this season everyone would expect garbage? Come on...

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by GatorByte

"No worries" about winning at least 10 games is pretty unrealistic imo.

Serious question... what do think CWM would be thinking if he read a statement like that?

That I have confidence in the program he's building including the coaching staff and players.

And perhaps that I looked at the schedule, which sets up better than the one we had last year.

It is possible we don't win 10, but I think it is unlikely. And I expect CWM will take it a lot more personally than I do if we finish with less than 10 wins.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

Losing Quinn, Floyd, Elam, and five others on defense is the problem. We won 11 games with a triple digit offense(not triple option). Reason? The defense. We won't have that luxury next season. The o line and wrs aren't as bad as people make them sound. Too many times you saw wrs running open and JD just couldn't see them. That is a problem. It is even a bigger problem when it is the last game of the season after weeks of bowl game practice.

I don't buy into that "new system" baloney. So if Aaron Murray got a new OC this season everyone would expect garbage? Come on...

I know the losses on defense are an issue. But we fielded a fairly strong defense the year before and we were in much worse shape in terms of talent and experience, plus we had a new coaching staff. We'll see some growing pains, but I have a lot of confidence in the talent and coaching... by mid-season we'll be strong on defense.

On offense, this is the second year with experience in Pease's system for JD and all the players. We should see more of the offense including more shifts and motions, to help keep opposing defenses off balance.

JD should improve a good deal, although I agree that vision/reads are an issue. I think his biggest issue may be getting good presnap reads, which he should be able to learn with enough film study and practice. If I'm wrong on that, then the offense could be challenged again, for sure. But even so, it is very likely we'll at least have a more effective OL, which gives all the skill position players a shot to make more plays.

[JohnC1908]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

Losing Quinn, Floyd, Elam, and five others on defense is the problem. We won 11 games with a triple digit offense(not triple option). Reason? The defense. We won't have that luxury next season. The o line and wrs aren't as bad as people make them sound. Too many times you saw wrs running open and JD just couldn't see them. That is a problem. It is even a bigger problem when it is the last game of the season after weeks of bowl game practice.

I don't buy into that "new system" baloney. So if Aaron Murray got a new OC this season everyone would expect garbage? Come on...

Tell us all what game the receivers were wide open. Please tell us all about these can't miss prospects on the OLine and at WR the NFL is drooling over.

[Swampmaster]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

And we are going to win at least 10 games this season. No worries there.

winning 10 and losing 2--not a great season after winning 11 with a mediocre offense.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

Since when is it "mediocre" to go 11-2 in your second season, playing the toughest schedule in the country, while rebuilding a program that the prior coach openly stated was "broken"?

There are all kinds of doom and gloom scenarios we could invent where any coach would get fired. But why invent them, when the evidence shows our current coach has the program going in the right direction? And why declare other posters as "accepting mediocrity" when there is no evidence of that either?

It's clear that you don't like Muschamp for some reason. That's certainly your right. But it's clearly not based on his performance.

Its based quite a bit on performance and a bit on approach-- namely I grew up watching Spurrier teams then went to college watching Meyer teams- I don't like boring offenses and frankly a boring 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense is what Boom wants, additionally its not what we've built our success on over the last two decades (you know the period where we've been nationally relevant as a program), I don't want us to become just another boring SEC team like Bama or LSU that's not Florida football, that's what was so awesome about watching A&M whoop Bama, it showed that you don't have to play a boring cookie cutter style of football to have success in this league, and then we got to see a real offense again in the Sugar Bowl, hopefully Boom takes the lessons Charlie taught him to heart and opens up the offense if not I don't see us being all that great next year.

In terms of performance what part of our offense over the last two season was in any way acceptable-- do you think we can have a Top 10 (in the SEC) offense this year, maybe even a Top 75 offense nationally- because that would be a huge leap forward.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

That I have confidence in the program he's building including the coaching staff and players.

And perhaps that I looked at the schedule, which sets up better than the one we had last year.

It is possible we don't win 10, but I think it is unlikely. And I expect CWM will take it a lot more personally than I do if we finish with less than 10 wins.

Well obviously, I mean you wont be filing for unemployment if that happens while he very well might be.

[gatorr4life]

Originally Posted by jcorb3233

For Bama to win more than 1 National Championship in the next 5 years, that would mean they would have won 5 Championships (or more) in a 9 year span, and 4 (or more) in a 7 year span. That seems extremely unlikely, especially given that the last two championship teams got beat (one of which didn't even win their division). That fact, plus the switch to the playoff system giving more teams a chance at a title, would make me say that Florida winning a Championship is more likely. But I'd say Alabama fans CLAIMING multiple national titles over the next 5 years is the most likely scenario of all.

Lol good post.

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

Its based quite a bit on performance and a bit on approach-- namely I grew up watching Spurrier teams then went to college watching Meyer teams- I don't like boring offenses and frankly a boring 3 yards and a cloud of dust offense is what Boom wants, additionally its not what we've built our success on over the last two decades (you know the period where we've been nationally relevant as a program), I don't want us to become just another boring SEC team like Bama or LSU that's not Florida football, that's what was so awesome about watching A&M whoop Bama, it showed that you don't have to play a boring cookie cutter style of football to have success in this league, and then we got to see a real offense again in the Sugar Bowl, hopefully Boom takes the lessons Charlie taught him to heart and opens up the offense if not I don't see us being all that great next year.

In terms of performance what part of our offense over the last two season was in any way acceptable-- do you think we can have a Top 10 (in the SEC) offense this year, maybe even a Top 75 offense nationally- because that would be a huge leap forward.

I believe your assumption about Muschamp wanting a "3 yards in a cloud of dust" offense is wildly incorrect. He didn't hire Pease for that.

In terms of what part of our offense was acceptable, TO margin, physical run game and TOP - those areas were all directly related to our record. The two games we turn the ball over, we lose.

I know some people would have been happier if we had our first year QB trying to throw the ball all over the park last season behind an OL that couldn't pass protect, but we'd have turned the ball over a ton more, and not won the fourth quarter the way we did... We'd have been a seven to eight win team with the players we had on offense.

The offense will evolve as we get more experienced talent understanding Pease' system. Part of that will depend on how quickly the light comes on for our QB.

Defense still wins championships... Muschamp is doing it the right way.

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

I believe your assumption about Muschamp wanting a "3 yards in a cloud of dust" offense is wildly incorrect. He didn't hire Pease for that.

In terms of what part of our offense was acceptable, TO margin, physical run game and TOP - those areas were all directly related to our record. The two games we turn the ball over, we lose.

I know some people would have been happier if we had our first year QB trying to throw the ball all over the park last season behind an OL that couldn't pass protect, but we'd have turned the ball over a ton more, and not won the fourth quarter the way we did... We'd have been a seven to eight win team with the players we had on offense.

The offense will evolve as we get more experienced talent understanding Pease' system. Part of that will depend on how quickly the light comes on for our QB.

Defense still wins championships... Muschamp is doing it the right way.

We'll see, I honestly hope you're right but I think Will might just be an ultra conservative coach like say Rex Ryan (interestingly enough the only actual pro team that runs it anywhere near as much as our supposedly "pro style" approach does- I'm cool with a pro style team- if that team is say Washington).

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

We'll see, I honestly hope you're right but I think Will might just be an ultra conservative coach like say Rex Ryan (interestingly enough the only actual pro team that runs it anywhere near as much as our supposedly "pro style" approach does- I'm cool with a pro style team- if that team is say Washington).

I think what Mschamp wants to build is along the lines of Mid-80s Gator teams or the great Canes teams - dominant defense, strong, explosive special teams, multiple pro style offense with a strong run game and big play ability... and with addition of some of the Boise shifts and motions to get the defense to expose itself presnap, and create mismatches with flex players.

We'll see how long it takes to get there.

[geauxgator1]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

I think what Mschamp wants to build is along the lines of Mid-80s Gator teams or the great Canes teams - dominant defense, strong, explosive special teams, multiple pro style offense with a strong run game and big play ability... and with addition of some of the Boise shifts and motions to get the defense to expose itself presnap, and create mismatches with flex players.

We'll see how long it takes to get there.

Well, that pretty much sums it up. He wants the best of all worlds, but the offense isn't quite there yet, so the offense does the best it can right now, which is play conservatively and try not to lose the game. The defense (and special teams) are our strengths, so let them win the games. WM did an excellent job.