What can get us beat?

[deathroll]

Gotta love this team. It's strengths are actually too long to list.

But what beats us? Is there a certain type of team or player(s) or situation that these Gators might not be able to overcome? Size, foul trouble, an off shooting night...? I don't know.

I've been trying to conjure up exactly what it is that might trip us up and, short of illness or injury, I can't come up with it. What do you think?

[rserina]

A couple of things have stuck out to me. One is a team that can hit guarded threes. Ole Miss just didn't have anyone other than Henderson, but if you can get a couple of kids with either the size or the quick trigger to take and hit contested threes, then they will be able to shoot over our good ball and help defense. The other is a team with good, long, physical perimeter defenders who can force our guards into turnovers and recover from screens without much switching, hedging, etc., while also being able to rotate over and contest our threes.

Fortunately, our defense, rebounding, and offensive balance means no one will be able to put games out of reach against us, but teams that do the two things I stated above probably have the best chance of beating us.

[mikechap93]

If we had a collective off shooting night in a game like last night, we could have a tough Tim winning. We couldn't get a ton of in close looks once ole miss packed their zone in, which is what's expected. But if Murphy doesn't hit a couple of threes, ole miss has the momentum in a 7 point game.

I'm not saying we are doomed but it would make for a battle

[gator1986]

Nothing florida is literally unbeatable

[Bradass]

Originally Posted by gator1986

Nothing florida is literally unbeatable

[gator1986]

Originally Posted by Bradass

Hey your names brad too! Sweet

[gogators73]

A) A pressing team where we turn it over and get frustrated
B) Off shooting night where the other team is only giving 3's like last night

That's about it IMO.

[Gatuar]

I'd say a legitimate top 15 program like K State or Arizona

We're getting drunk off horrible competition

[dalwood13]

Originally Posted by rserina

A couple of things have stuck out to me. One is a team that can hit guarded threes. Ole Miss just didn't have anyone other than Henderson, but if you can get a couple of kids with either the size or the quick trigger to take and hit contested threes, then they will be able to shoot over our good ball and help defense. The other is a team with good, long, physical perimeter defenders who can force our guards into turnovers and recover from screens without much switching, hedging, etc., while also being able to rotate over and contest our threes.

Fortunately, our defense, rebounding, and offensive balance means no one will be able to put games out of reach against us, but teams that do the two things I stated above probably have the best chance of beating us.

This post is right on the money. The turnovers are my biggest concern. If someone is going to take and make contested jumpers, there is not much anyone can do about it. I would also be worried about a team like Michigan who could run and shoot and get good looks before our half court defense can settle in.

I really think our game planning has been incredible this season. Our assistants are doing a great job of putting together great scouting reports and our players have been executing about as well as possible. I don't think anything will catch this team off guard.

[GatorLurker]

Shooting contested 3's is like rolling dice. Yesterday Henderson was rolling 7-11. He had the hot hand. That happens. Chapeau to him. But such a game plan only works on occasion and it didn't help Ole Miss yesterday. It just kept them from being totally embarrassed.

In an NCAA tournament setting that might get you a 1st round upset, but going to that well two games in a row is asking too much. That is why a really good seed is important. It minimizes the chance that stupid stuff happens.

[AlfaGator]

Foul shooting by Young during crunch time is close games might be an issue.

[InstiGATOR1]

Well the first way to answer this is what got UF beat twice before this season:

1. Melting down in the last minute or so at the end of each half. That can turn a 15 point win into a 1 point loss. That includes Boynton miss of a front end. In general you can worry about Wilbekins mediocre FT shooting percentage.

2. Not showing up, ie being distracted by Christmas or whatever. That appeared to be what got UF beat the other time UF lost this season. It was a very odd game. UF got it back to tied near the 12 minute mark of the second half and still did not do what was needed to win. So what other distractions will UF have? I could see a UF team that has won the SEC not showing up in Lexington.

Now for other answers:

3. As other have said a hot shooting team. If UAR were to start to regress to the mean on Tuesday night maybe they could make a bunch of threes and if UF were as bad on offense as sometimes on Saturday night, they might win. [I say regress to the mean because UAR and B.J. Young can NOT be as bad as their current percentages from the arc.

4. Foul troubles for UF's bigs against another big team. UF's backup bigs are Yeguete and Prather or 6'7" and 6'6". If say a team with Cody Zeller as the center, got Young and Murphy in foul trouble, Yeguete would have quite a challenge ahead of him.

[themistocles]

Bad luck, bad play, bad officiating, good play/shooting by opponents, having all of the top 8 Gators foul out in the first half, etc., etc..

Or, as the others noted.

Any team can lose, and, in fact, given an 18 game conference schedule, a couple of losses are likely to occur no matter how good a given team is.

[tegator80]

No one mentioned the easiest to identify: bad refs.

My take is that good defenders on the perimeter puts our ballhandling in a bit of a funk. If we begin to jack up threes because we can't get into a good flow and they don't fall, we can get into lapses on defense. And THAT is what gets our team in trouble.

But last night Scottie decided to take his game up another notch in bringing the ball up and driving to the basket. If he continues to progress, and we remember to feed Patric the ball, then we have a pretty clear path to the NC.

[born2beagator]

Unless we come up against a top 10 team of equal skill, I think the only thing that can beat Florida is Florida.

[superman2318]

In my view, we are still vulnerable to the late game 12 point collapse just like the last 2 elite 8. We almost....ALMOST went down that road again last night. Up by 14-16 with 10 min to go, went on a long 6 min scoring drought steady jacking up quick 3's for bricks while the lead gets cuts down. They really need to learn when up like that late, to work the shot clock.

[UFish]

1. Turnovers: A recurring problem by almost every Billy Donovan team I've seen the past few years with the exception of the 04s. Taurean Green could handle the ball with defenders draped over his back. We don't handle pressure that well. LSU hurt us with a press and halfcourt traps. If LSU could do that, it concerns me to think about what a better equipped team could do to us.

Most of the teams in this league won't dare press us for fear of what will happen if we beat it. Come tournament time, more talented teams with better discipline will have nothing to lose and I really hope we've been tested more by traps and presses when that time comes.

2. Cold shooting. When Ole Miss went into a zone last night, the ball went nowhere. We swung it around the perimeter and eventually took a half open three point shot every time. Coach Donovan said those are shots we had to take and that may be, but if they're not going in, that can kill us. We're obviously a more inside oriented team than we were last year but we're also still to reliant on the outside shot.

3. Some hotshot goes off on us. This could happen to anybody and can happen to anybody in college basketball, though it's less likely to happen to us considering the strength of our defense. Henderson did it last night and had he been given some help from his teammates, they may have beat us. Teams in the tournament with hotshots will probably get more help.

[rivergator]

Not hitting threes. As with a lot of previous Gator teams, we're awfully dependent on the 3. A really cold night against a good team ...
A team with several good big guys. We're not big inside and if Young gets in foul trouble trying to guard a series of big guys ...

[HALLGATOR]

My biggest concern is a team which scores more points than we do.

[rserina]

Originally Posted by UFish

1. Turnovers: A recurring problem by almost every Billy Donovan team I've seen the past few years with the exception of the 04s. Taurean Green could handle the ball with defenders draped over his back. We don't handle pressure that well. LSU hurt us with a press and halfcourt traps. If LSU could do that, it concerns me to think about what a better equipped team could do to us.

Actually, those teams really struggled with turnovers. Green had a decent assist/to ratio his sophomore season (1.5:1), but was at about 1.3:1 the following year. Brewer was barely positive both years and Humphrey was barely positive the second year (first year he was close to 2:1). As a team, they averaged over 13 per game both seasons. By comparison, we average less than twelve this year, with Wilbekin at over 2.5:1 and Boynton just under it.

I agree that we have struggled against the press, though I am not sure LSU is the best example, as they are fourth nationally in steals. Arky this week should be another good test.