BCS Title Hypothetical

[orangeblueorangeblue]

The BCS isn't going away.

[Jonas]

Originally Posted by orangeblueorangeblue

The BCS isn't going away.

Yeah it is. Have you not heard about the playoff? They aren't using the BCS system to determine seeding.

[atlantagator86]

Originally Posted by tilly

I'm not convinced Bama was that much better than us this year. We would have given them a very good game...especially after seeing them versus UGA and aTm. So I see no reason to think we don't continue to improve and bring in top recruits that will keep us toe to toe.

My point is...they are in no better shape looking 5 years ahead than we are.

I have to disagree on the first part. Despite our overall success last season, our offense was weak and our power running game would have been terribly mismatched against Bama's size on defense.

Bur I agree with the rest. I don't think there's any reason to think we can be as good or better than Bama or anyone else in the SEC over the next 5 years.

[orangeblueorangeblue]

Originally Posted by Jonas

Yeah it is. Have you not heard about the playoff? They aren't using the BCS system to determine seeding.

I have heard of the playoff and the lack of seeding. I thought the BCS would still exist outside of the championship game(s).

[OaktownGator]

Originally Posted by GatorByte

I wish I shared your optimism. What exactly makes you think we have a better shot? Their schedule? I'd say that our chances would be equal to theirs at the very best, simply based on how few question marks they have compared to us.

Last offseason even many Bama fans I talked to were seeing 2-3 losses on their schedule with personnel losses. Many others were also predicting a drop-off for them, and we all saw how that worked out.

They definitely had some luck (with teams in front of them losing), but really only had 3 games that were close all year. We had what... 5-6 games that could be considered close? We were very fortunate to be 11-2. I think we still have to improve quite a bit.

Bama did get lucky to win the SEC. They had the easiest possible schedule they could get, LSU gave away their game, and UGA was one play and boneheaded clock management away from beating them in the SECCG.

Even though we had issues on offense this year, we'd have played them very tight if we got to the SECCG and certainly could have beaten them.

Our schedule looks more manageable this year and I expect we'll be better on offense. Maybe a whole lot better.

Not sure how far our defense will slide, but I have a lot of confidence in Muschamp on that side of the ball and we have a lot of young talent. I expect we'll be very strong by year end defensively. If we can keep to one loss in regular season, we could well be in the hunt for the SEC and BCS titles.

[geauxgator1]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

Leak was 22-11 going into his senior year so he deserved a little heat. We went 11-2 with JD and I don't feel comfortable with him at all. Barely passing for 140 yds/game is pretty awful(even for a 1st year starter).

Even Bama lost three games a couple years ago so I think it is foolish to say "our defense will always be very good". Losing Floyd was huge and we lost everyone right up the middle of the D. I hope we can "plug and play" but I'm really hoping for 10-3 next year.

"foolish?" I'd say a reasonable assumption.
Point is JD has one year under his belt and it doesn't appear people are believing he can improve. That's not a reasonable assumption. Going into his second year with more experience in the system and OC, and what should be a better OL, things are looking up I'd say on that end. If after next year he doesn't come around, then maybe we can talk. Muschamp, wisely or not, limited the offensive scheme, kept it a ground and pound, played his cards close to the vest, and it looks like that was a genius move. We won a lot of games with a very average offense at best. What would JD have done with Percy, Hernandez, and those guys? Maybe not what Tebow did, but another issue is the talent he had wasn't as good as we would have wanted. Can't make chicken salad out of you know what.. and no, I'm not saying our guys are chicken s---t, just not the caliber or depth we need to win the SEC. 11-1 regular season and JD was our qb. What have we got to complain about?

[whitelakegator]

Originally Posted by geauxgator1

"foolish?" I'd say a reasonable assumption.
Point is JD has one year under his belt and it doesn't appear people are believing he can improve. That's not a reasonable assumption. Going into his second year with more experience in the system and OC, and what should be a better OL, things are looking up I'd say on that end. If after next year he doesn't come around, then maybe we can talk. Muschamp, wisely or not, limited the offensive scheme, kept it a ground and pound, played his cards close to the vest, and it looks like that was a genius move. We won a lot of games with a very average offense at best. What would JD have done with Percy, Hernandez, and those guys? Maybe not what Tebow did, but another issue is the talent he had wasn't as good as we would have wanted. Can't make chicken salad out of you know what.. and no, I'm not saying our guys are chicken s---t, just not the caliber or depth we need to win the SEC. 11-1 regular season and JD was our qb. What have we got to complain about?

Hopefully, the light goes off for JD or someone takes it from him. I guarantee we don't go 11-2 with a repeat on offense next season. Losing six or seven starters on defense is a lot to overcome. 10-3 will be a great season for this team. I think going 11-2 this season is going to bring some unrealistic expectations for next year. We barely beat several teams because we can't throw down field. There were many occasions we had open receivers but JD couldn't find them for whatever reason(too many excuses made for him imho). Looking at JD and the reload on defense...I see 10-3 and we'll have crazies calling for CWM's head.

And "foolish" is probably not the best word to use...my bad on that.

[maxgator]

Originally Posted by cholz17

I believe UF and UGA have bie weeks before the game, hmm

I see what you did there...

[socraticsilence]

Originally Posted by geauxgator1

People used to say that about Chris leak, too. I think our D will be very good as long as WM is our HC. I also think the offense will be much improved. JD just needs a little more experience and some help up front. We will be good again, but if we win 9 or more games, it will be a successful year. Our schedule looks pretty tough again.

Chris Leak's worst year was better than JD at his very best frankly to compare the two is insulting to a great gator (our alltime passing leader), additionally our schedule will always be hard- going into last season we were told repeatedly that 2013 would be Boom's make or break year- if he wins less than 10 he's on the hot seat in 2014, heck if he he wins 10 but drops a 3rd straight to Georgia he's going to have to fight to keep the Bull Gators from rising up.

[whitelakegator]

Leak threw for more yards than Danny boy? I know Danny has 117 tds vs 60 for Leak. Never knew that.

[whitelakegator]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/...er-career.html

Look at this list...it should scare the crap out of everyone that our guy. passed for 1646 yards for a whole season with 12 TDs and 5 picks.

I didn't even notice that the list is only since 2000...wow...here's the all-time list:

CAREER YARDS
Player, Team Years G Att. Cmp. Int. Pct. Yards TD
Case Keenum, Houston ...................................... 2007-11 57 2,229 *1,546 46 .694 *19,217 *155
Timmy Chang, Hawaii ......................................... 2000-04 53 *2,436 1,388 *80 .570 17,072 117
Graham Harrell, Texas Tech ............................... 2005-08 45 2,010 1,403 34 .698 15,793 134
Ty Detmer, BYU .................................................. .... 1988-91 46 1,530 958 65 .626 15,031 121
Kellen Moore, Boise St. ...................................... 2008-11 53 1,658 1,157 28 .698 14,667 142
Colt Brennan, Hawaii ........................................... 2005-07 38 1,584 1,115 42 #.704 14,193 131
Philip Rivers, North Carolina St. ..................... 2000-03 49 1,710 1,147 34 .671 13,484 95
Colt McCoy, Texas ................................................. 2006-09 53 1,645 1,157 45 .703 13,253 112
Kevin Kolb, Houston ........................................... 2003-06 50 1,565 964 31 .616 12,964 85
Dan LeFevour, Central Mich. ............................ 2006-09 53 1,763 1,171 36 .664 12,905 102

[OaktownGator]

No doubt we need a more efficient passing game.

But people thinking we need to pass for a lot of yards or who don't appreciate the TD to Int ratio, are missing out on a lot of strong football.

We don't need to pass for a ton of yards. That's not what Muschamp is trying to build and not what we need to be a championship football team. We just need to be able to keep the defense somewhat off balance, expose what they are trying to do, and take what the defense gives us when they over commit to stopping some aspect of the offense. And protect the damned ball... it is no coincidence that the only games we lost the TO battle and special teams, we lost.

Very few big passing teams win championships in football. Even in the NFL, which has done everything possible to force themselves into a passing league, two of the most "old school" style teams are in the Super Bowl.

And the ole ball coach himself has gone to the old school style of football. Because he knows it is the best way to win.

[Jonas]

Originally Posted by orangeblueorangeblue

I have heard of the playoff and the lack of seeding. I thought the BCS would still exist outside of the championship game(s).

There will be "BCS" bowls, but I don't think they will be called that. The BCS polls were just about putting #1 and #2 into the title game, and that's no longer going to be the case.

[whitelakegator]

Originally Posted by OaktownGator

No doubt we need a more efficient passing game.

But people thinking we need to pass for a lot of yards or who don't appreciate the TD to Int ratio, are missing out on a lot of strong football.

We don't need to pass for a ton of yards. That's not what Muschamp is trying to build and not what we need to be a championship football team. We just need to be able to keep the defense somewhat off balance, expose what they are trying to do, and take what the defense gives us when they over commit to stopping some aspect of the offense. And protect the damned ball... it is no coincidence that the only games we lost the TO battle and special teams, we lost.

Very few big passing teams win championships in football. Even in the NFL, which has done everything possible to force themselves into a passing league, two of the most "old school" style teams are in the Super Bowl.

And the ole ball coach himself has gone to the old school style of football. Because he knows it is the best way to win.

You have to have balance. And Bama has it on offense. But you have to be able to put the fear of the pass into the opponents. Right now, no one should be scared of JD...nobody. I don't think anyone on that top ten list won a title. My point was how freaking bad we are on that side of the ball. Yes, we went 11-2 with our 1880's offense. I assume CWM had little faith in JD and did the best he could. I do not think that luxury is available next season. I stand behind 10-3 being a great season for us.

[geauxgator1]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

Hopefully, the light goes off for JD or someone takes it from him. I guarantee we don't go 11-2 with a repeat on offense next season. Losing six or seven starters on defense is a lot to overcome. 10-3 will be a great season for this team. I think going 11-2 this season is going to bring some unrealistic expectations for next year. We barely beat several teams because we can't throw down field. There were many occasions we had open receivers but JD couldn't find them for whatever reason(too many excuses made for him imho). Looking at JD and the reload on defense...I see 10-3 and we'll have crazies calling for CWM's head.

And "foolish" is probably not the best word to use...my bad on that.

No problem.. As we would expect SOS to have great offenses, and Meyer to have them as well,( except in his meltdown period), I think WM defenses will likely be comparable, of course no guarantees, and yes we lose some studs, but he has stockpiled the defensive players rather well.

[geauxgator1]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

Chris Leak's worst year was better than JD at his very best frankly to compare the two is insulting to a great gator (our alltime passing leader), additionally our schedule will always be hard- going into last season we were told repeatedly that 2013 would be Boom's make or break year- if he wins less than 10 he's on the hot seat in 2014, heck if he he wins 10 but drops a 3rd straight to Georgia he's going to have to fight to keep the Bull Gators from rising up.

If he wins 10 games this year, and lstill loses to UGA, I don't think anyone will complain too hard even the bulls.

[geauxgator1]

Originally Posted by socraticsilence

Chris Leak's worst year was better than JD at his very best frankly to compare the two is insulting to a great gator (our alltime passing leader), additionally our schedule will always be hard- going into last season we were told repeatedly that 2013 would be Boom's make or break year- if he wins less than 10 he's on the hot seat in 2014, heck if he he wins 10 but drops a 3rd straight to Georgia he's going to have to fight to keep the Bull Gators from rising up.

I'm not saying JD is Leak, imo he's a much better athlete, and as to whether or not he can become a great QB or passer as Leak did, remains to be seen. People didn't think Leak could win the NC is what I was saying. JD doesn't have the talent around him that other qb's had. I would like to see JD with a good OL and recievers to work with. Leak didn't have to run for his life all the time either, nor did Tebow until his last year, nor did Wuerffel. Most of the time we had a very good OL and life as QB is much easier when you have some time to pick your spots. I know he is a long way off still, but give him this next year and we will see if it will come together for him. I'm betting he will click.

[whitelakegator]

Originally Posted by geauxgator1

If he wins 10 games this year, and lstill loses to UGA, I don't think anyone will complain too hard even the bulls.

Prediction: If we win ten games it will be because JD major a huge huge jump. 3200yds 20 TDs 8 picks - That's only 250 yds per game. That would put him in the top 40. He finished 99th last year. If he has trouble breaking 200 yds/game we will struggle to win eight games.

[geauxgator1]

Originally Posted by whitelakegator

Prediction: If we win ten games it will be because JD major a huge huge jump. 3200yds 20 TDs 8 picks - That's only 250 yds per game. That would put him in the top 40. He finished 99th last year. If he has trouble breaking 200 yds/game we will struggle to win eight games.

I don't think the offensive philosophy will change much next season. I bet WM stays ground and pound. It worked this past year. JD doesn't need to make a huge improvement, just be smarter when he's in the pocket and the protection breaks down. He can scramble and run and it should buy him time, and just get rid of the ball when he needs to. He can put a lot of pressure on the defense when he plays smart.

[whitelakegator]

AJ was 85th so who knows. Jd has nowhere near the pocket awareness as aj though. Interesting how close yet far apart we are.