Gator Country

Matthanuf06 · 01-21-2013, 07:07 PM

3 losses is a 2 seed.

2 losses is a decent shot at a 1, provided we don't lose before the final in the SECT.

1 loss is almost a guaranteed 1 with a shot at #1 overall.

Undefeated will get us #1 overall.

My guess is we lose 1 but win the tourney and end up a 1, but 3rd or 4th overall.

The SEC is crazy weak this year. We just won arguably one of the three or four toughest games in conference by like 30.

InstiGATOR1 · 01-21-2013, 07:12 PM

Last years number 1 seeds were:

UK: 32-2
'Cuse: 31-2
Michigan State: 27-7
UNC: 29-5

themistocles · 01-21-2013, 07:26 PM

If the Gators win all the remaining Games, including the SEC tournament, then a 1 seed is possible.

If not, I would think a 2 seed is most likely. With 3 SEC losses, I think a 3 seed would be possible, if not likely.

gatorbogey · 01-21-2013, 07:46 PM

where do we stand in some of the latest mock bracketologies? last i checked - on jan 15th, we were, like, a 3-seed w/ Lunardi.

GatorLurker · 01-21-2013, 08:45 PM

Lunardi is clueless. I wish that I had his gig because it would only take me a couple of hours per week and I would do better by simply looking at Sagarin Predictor and Kenpom to figure out who is good and who isn't.

And he is really bad at avoiding early rematches as well as early conference foes and trying to minimize travel.

I think that I could train my dog to do a better job of this.

swampgas44 · 01-21-2013, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gatorbogey

where do we stand in some of the latest mock bracketologies? last i checked - on jan 15th, we were, like, a 3-seed w/ Lunardi.

We are now a 2 seed. (1/21) (Lunardi's record in predicting seeds is bad. If he was working for anyone besides ESPN we never would have heard of his name)

InstiGATOR1 · 01-21-2013, 09:23 PM

This site:

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/proj.../bracketology/

Has UF the projected overall number 1 seed. They give UF the greatest chance of winning the tourney, slightly more than 1 in 5.

gogators73 · 01-21-2013, 09:27 PM

IMO if we finish with 3 losses (no matter if the 3rd loss is regular season or SECT) we will be a 1 seed. If we finish 4 losses, both need to be in the regular season to Missouri/OleMiss/Kentucky/someone with a respectable RPI, and then we need to win the SECT.

Don't forgot our current SOS is 7. That is about to drop rapidly but it is not like we are going from a SOS of 50 and dropping. We have some room to drop and still have a quality SOS.

oneatatime · 01-22-2013, 04:48 AM

even if we won out (and that is a longshot), i suspect that some of the 6 to 7 teams currently in front of us would need to lose to lower ranked or unranked teams.

Syracuse's escape at home against Cincy is one that could have really helped us

I still stand by this and look what has happened in the past two days alone to teams ahead of us

Louisville loses at unranked Villanova
Duke gets slaughtered by #25 (but underrated) scUM

Highly ranked Butler also loses after beating Gonzaga

This all helps

rserina · 01-22-2013, 07:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GatorLurker

I think that I could train my dog to do a better job of this.

You seem to have forgotten that the ESPN internship program is roughly the same thing.

**GothamGator** · 01-22-2013, 08:18 AM

I think we can get a 1-seed if we lose 2-4 more games, including the SEC Tournament. If we only lose 2 more, I think we are close to a lock. If we only lose 4 more, it's a maybe. As has been pointed out, a lot depends upon what other teams do.

Our non-conference schedule was quite strong, and while the SEC is down this year, we have one of the toughest schedules in our conference, with 2 games each against Missouri, Kentucky and Arkansas.

swampgas44 · 01-22-2013, 09:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by InstiGATOR1

This site:

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/proj.../bracketology/

Has UF the projected overall number 1 seed. They give UF the greatest chance of winning the tourney, slightly more than 1 in 5.

Moved up from no.5 on the S-curve for projected seeding in the last week. Hope nobody on the team checks this website.

DoubleDown11 · 01-22-2013, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by InstiGATOR1

Last years number 1 seeds were:

UK: 32-2
'Cuse: 31-2
Michigan State: 27-7
UNC: 29-5

Which just goes to show that a heck of a lot more goes into determining seeding than simply overall record. This year will be interesting because we could potentially have conference champions like UF and Kansas with better overall records that 2nd place teams like Michigan and Louisville, but with fewer quality wins just due to the overall strength of the conferences.

**mrgator** · 01-22-2013, 11:10 AM

I think we can only lose 2-3 games during the SEC schedule and SEC tournament. That would put us with 4-5 losses and a pretty strong RPI. Wins against Wisconsin, Marquette and FSU would help. I think the only good losses we could possibly take in the SEC is against UK, Missouri or Ole Miss. The rest would be considered bad losses, IMO.

I know the SEC is weak but the media likes the make up of this Gator BB team.

dangolegators · 01-24-2013, 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MadduxFanII

Math is hard.

Just pointing out that in your OP, you had us playing 34 games before the conference tournament. We only play 30.

dangolegators · 01-24-2013, 12:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by themistocles

If the Gators win all the remaining Games, including the SEC tournament, then a 1 seed is possible.

If the Gators win all of their remaining games, a 1 seed is a lock. They would be 31-2.

oneatatime · 01-24-2013, 04:51 AM

recent losses by Louisville and Duke certainly help

MadduxFanII · 01-24-2013, 12:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dangolegators

Just pointing out that in your OP, you had us playing 34 games before the conference tournament. We only play 30.

Yes, I know.

InstiGATOR1 · 01-24-2013, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oneatatime

recent losses by Louisville and Duke certainly help

Some, I would guess that the number 1s this year will include:

1. Whatever BIG school separates its self a little. Any school that wins their regular season and tourney for sure will get it. If no one does, but a regular seaons champs clearly wins by a game, then they will get it. If there is a 2 or 3 way regular season tie and one of them wins the tourney, they will get it.

2. The same story for 1 for some Big East team, really either UL or 'Cuse.

3. The best of Duke, Zona, KU.

4. UF if UF wins the regular season SEC by a couple of games and does not flame out in the tourney completely.

The keys for UF getting a number 1 seed are to take care of its business and have one of Zona, Duke and KU separate from the others.

**ThePlayer** · 01-24-2013, 04:09 PM

What's our most-likely SEC loss now....Ole Miss at home, Mizzou on the road, Kentucky, Tennessee?