Originally Posted by MadduxFanII
The problem is that if our "true" talent is a 9-3 win team, the error bars around that projection means there's a not unreasonable chance that the team could end up 8-4 or even 7-5. That's especially true with the kind of games we're likely to play (low-scoring, close, hard-fought). And however understandable that might be, 8-4 or 7-5 would be an awfully difficult end to the current momentum.
Well, I would argue that is no such thing as a direct relationship between your record and your "true talent." It is all relative to who you play. Next year, there are three teams I see as having talent/experience/matchup/venue/scheduling advantages over us in our head to head matchup (LSU, UGA, South Carolina), but in none of those cases do they have us by much. LSU loses ten underclassmen to the draft, UGA has plenty of losses on both sides of the ball, and SC is very low on playmakers. So, when I say 9-3, I am taking into consideration that we could very easily win one or all of those games, just as we might drop a surprise.
But who would those surprises be? A 7-5 Miami team? Tennessee, Arky, Kentucky, all going through coaching changes? Vandy at home? Mizzou in Columbia and FSU in Gainesville are about the only candidates and I think by then the inexperience factor will have worn off a little. It isn't like we are starting a team full of freshman next season. The majority of new starters will be second- and third-year guys who came in under Muschamp.