Before you jump

[UFish]

Originally Posted by SmootyGator

I said this three years ago and learned my lesson. It amazes me that people still say this.

We ranked like 108th in the country in passing offense. Several of the teams finished behind us because they were triple option offenses. It can't and won't get worse than that so as far as being amazed, way to go?

In 2010, it was the square peg in a round hole.

In 2011, injuries derailed an offense already in transition from spread to pro.

This year, a first-year starting quarterback and a new system (again) hindered any unlikely chance of the offense showing significant improvement from '11 to '12.

This will be the first year since 2010 we've had the same play-caller for consecutive seasons. And we'll actually be running a system that makes sense with the players we have. If for no other reason, the offense should at least be minimally better because of that.

[rserina]

Originally Posted by MadduxFanII

The problem is that if our "true" talent is a 9-3 win team, the error bars around that projection means there's a not unreasonable chance that the team could end up 8-4 or even 7-5. That's especially true with the kind of games we're likely to play (low-scoring, close, hard-fought). And however understandable that might be, 8-4 or 7-5 would be an awfully difficult end to the current momentum.

Well, I would argue that is no such thing as a direct relationship between your record and your "true talent." It is all relative to who you play. Next year, there are three teams I see as having talent/experience/matchup/venue/scheduling advantages over us in our head to head matchup (LSU, UGA, South Carolina), but in none of those cases do they have us by much. LSU loses ten underclassmen to the draft, UGA has plenty of losses on both sides of the ball, and SC is very low on playmakers. So, when I say 9-3, I am taking into consideration that we could very easily win one or all of those games, just as we might drop a surprise.

But who would those surprises be? A 7-5 Miami team? Tennessee, Arky, Kentucky, all going through coaching changes? Vandy at home? Mizzou in Columbia and FSU in Gainesville are about the only candidates and I think by then the inexperience factor will have worn off a little. It isn't like we are starting a team full of freshman next season. The majority of new starters will be second- and third-year guys who came in under Muschamp.

[UFreak]

Originally Posted by rserina

Well, I would argue that is no such thing as a direct relationship between your record and your "true talent." It is all relative to who you play. Next year, there are three teams I see as having talent/experience/matchup/venue/scheduling advantages over us in our head to head matchup (LSU, UGA, South Carolina), but in none of those cases do they have us by much. LSU loses ten underclassmen to the draft, UGA has plenty of losses on both sides of the ball, and SC is very low on playmakers. So, when I say 9-3, I am taking into consideration that we could very easily win one or all of those games, just as we might drop a surprise.

But who would those surprises be? A 7-5 Miami team? Tennessee, Arky, Kentucky, all going through coaching changes? Vandy at home? Mizzou in Columbia and FSU in Gainesville are about the only candidates and I think by then the inexperience factor will have worn off a little. It isn't like we are starting a team full of freshman next season. The majority of new starters will be second- and third-year guys who came in under Muschamp.

Good assessment. This spring will certainly shed some light on this subject. If during spring someone like Kelvin Taylor is looking like someone who could be special as a freshman, same with D-Rob, then perhaps we measure slightly better than 9-3. If RoPo comes back strong and is proving to be unblockable, perhaps it gives us reason for optimism. I think at linebacker we know what we have. But we should expect a clear and significant step forward from Morrison who had an exceptional freshman year. He could prove to be a special type talent who overshadows weaknesses on D.
Lastly, safety will be also very revealing of how this defense will look in 2013. We have recruited so well at safety. I would like to think a pair will emerge who we are very happy with.
Spring will give us a good indicator.

Then it's all on scheduling like rsrina stated. Of the big three he mentioned, I like us winning at least one of those. That gets us to 10-2 in my head.

Not too shabby

[GuyWhiteyCorngood]

Hoping Mayes and Neal give immediate depth at safety.