2013 Gator Commitment #23: MLB Jarrad Davis of Camden County HS, Kingsland GA

[samit23]

Originally Posted by fubar1

Yes, many people believe these services put the resources forward to scout a large number of high school prospects. Do you have a membership on Rivals, or any other service? If you did, you'd realize for example the folks at Rivals are all over this stuff. They go to the combines, all-star games, regular season games and talk the recruits and their coaches extensively. We've come a long way since Bill Buchalter. The services aren't perfect, but they're much much better than 10-15 years ago..

Good for you if you believe this.

[risktaker]

Originally Posted by samit23

Good for you if you believe this.

Hows this any different from "trust the coaches"? Either way you're trusting someone who's supposed to be a professional. The recruiting services are in the business of evaluating players. And just like the coaches they're paid to get it right.

[demosthenes]

Originally Posted by samit23

Good for you if you believe this.

Right, your obtuseness in face of common sense and statistical correlation gives you the high ground. Jesus. Message boards are great for you aren't they?

[gator996]

Lots of guys see waaaaay more players.....

Guys who played ,,,, like Tyson, Zo (gators_84_88), etc.
I trust what they're saying.

They give you a decent analysis of a player...who cares who saw him first.
When the info goes public at least they give you a real assessment.

No scouting is perfect but alot more kids are actually seen than in the past.

[LabraGator]

Originally Posted by risktaker

Hows this any different from "trust the coaches"? Either way you're trusting someone who's supposed to be a professional. The recruiting services are in the business of evaluating players. And just like the coaches they're paid to get it right.

One is recruiting for their team and system. The others are basically a minor league Kiper. Personally I'll put more stock behind the guys who have to use the players.

[WEDGator]

Guys. Big difference between a recruiting reporting service and the coaches evaluation. Mainly that the services are making money by selling there news to paying subscribers(where geography matters), while the coaches are looking for players that will produce wins in there system(that will in turn sell tickets and keep them employed). The service providers can be wrong and next year start anew. The coaches cannot be wrong for very long and still be around.

[nawlinsgator]

Originally Posted by GATORAZ

They could have gotten somebody hire rated than Davis. There isnt much difference between a high 3 star and 4 star recruit. This is the kid they liked and they got him. They told Trey Johnson to come another weekend which shows you who they like better. Would you call Trey Johnson someone added just for depth? (every player is added for depth thats the point)

This. Trey Johnson is lower on the coach's board than Jarrad Davis. That's all you need to know.

[Bushmaster]

If these recruiting services were so good at evaluating talent, they would be working to NFL teams scouting talent.

[GatorAvatar]

3 star. Hope he will be better than his rating.

[Nicho]

Originally Posted by GatorAvatar

3 star. Hope he will be better than his rating.

Avatar, please refrain from directing your "coping mechanisms" at our pledges. Thanks, bro.

[gator1986]

Originally Posted by GatorAvatar

3 star. Hope he will be better than his rating.

3 stars can be diamonds in the rough my friend... Antonio Morrison rang a bell at all?

[gators4life]

Good candidate for a redshirt. Has room to add more weight. That said I really like this kids ability. Dude is fast and can lay the wood. I think he could be a pretty good player for us.

[SECund2nun]

Originally Posted by risktaker

Hows this any different from "trust the coaches"? Either way you're trusting someone who's supposed to be a professional. The recruiting services are in the business of evaluating players. And just like the coaches they're paid to get it right.

Coaches are in the business of winning games. Recruiting services are in the business of making money and getting more viewers. If a coach fails they will lose games and get fired. If scout or rivals fails it means little. Past performance analysis is meaningless and does little to deter potential subscribers,

Coaches are much better at analyzing players than recruiting "experts" who have little or no football experience. Also they mainly just analyze the players as a whole vs coaches who analyze how the players will fit in their specific schemes.

Muschamp has forgotten more about football than scout, rivals etc put together. Saban gets a fair share of 3 stars. In fact, Saban gets a good amount more of 3 stars than Meyer and Kiffin and Carrol yet who is better?

[nawlinsgator]

Originally Posted by GatorAvatar

3 star. Hope he will be better than his rating.

Most predictable post from the most predictable poster.

[gator7_5]

^ no doubt

[Matthanuf06]

Originally Posted by Nicho

The star rating systems are not garbage, at least not for the legit sites like Rivals and 247. They just have limitations.

They include:
1) not taking character into account.
How many 5-stars have busted due to lack of work ethic, lack of discipline and/or criminal behavior? A lot. Lack of talent/poor evaluation is rarely the issue. I'd also add that I don't think the sites should start considering character. It's too subjective and should be left up to the coaches (at least, the ones that care about it).

2) lack of comprehensiveness.
Sometimes good players just happen to play in a very small town, on a very bad team and/or on a team that does not showcase their talents (i.e., great running back in a pass-heavy offense). As for-profit businesses, these sites make the best of the staff resources they have. And I think the better sites (mentioned above) do a pretty good job of it.

3) late blooming players.
Sometimes guys just don't flash their full potential until they reach college (or, in some cases, towards the end of their senior year, when consensus opinions have already been established). It might be due to a late growth spurt height and/or weight-wise.

4) politics.
All sites probably have some of this. It's the need to evenly balance out the rankings geographically and by school to have as much widespread appeal as possible. As many highly ranked recruits as Florida has each year, there are probably more in actuality. The sites probably figure that readers in other states/regions will get a little tired of reading about the sunshine state.

So again, the star systems are far from garbage, but they aren't the last word either. They are simply a tool for evaluating the success of recruiting efforts prior to actual wins/losses 3-4 years later. They are not THE tool.

Agree.

The star system is fine, and the results speak for themselves. 5 star players on average have better careers than 4 stars. 4 stars on average have better careers than 3 stars, and down the line.

Perhaps people would be better off thinking of this in terms of probability. The more stars, the more likely the player will be good. The player can still suck. The less stars, the less likely the player will be good. But the player still can be good.

[Gatorrick22]

Originally Posted by Nicho

Avatar, please refrain from directing your "coping mechanisms" at our pledges. Thanks, bro.

Too funny.

[GatorJeff]

Originally Posted by Matthanuf06

Agree.

The star system is fine, and the results speak for themselves. 5 star players on average have better careers than 4 stars. 4 stars on average have better careers than 3 stars, and down the line.

Perhaps people would be better off thinking of this in terms of probability. The more stars, the more likely the player will be good. The player can still suck. The less stars, the less likely the player will be good. But the player still can be good.

Exactly. And when the sample size reaches 125 (five recruiting classes), it becomes large enough to create statistical significance. People that say stars aren't important generally point to anecdotes (2 star All-American vs. 5 star bust). Life is about probabilities, from the quantum level on up. So is college football recruiting.

[GatorAvatar]

Stars don't lie. Show me a 1 star who turned out to be a first round NFL pick.

[GatorAvatar]

Originally Posted by Nicho

Avatar, please refrain from directing your "coping mechanisms" at our pledges. Thanks, bro.

That was funny LOL.