Point guard situation this year vs. last year

[rserina]

I am honestly far less concerned with the press (how many teams actually do it that well?) than I am about our ability to gather ourselves and get a shot late in the clock. That's where a good shooting point guard is dynamite in Donovan's offense. On the whole, we haven't been very "Donovan-like" offensively at all this year. Shooting from the arc is average, not a high volume of assists, and a somewhat poor assist/turnover ration. Not sure what our efficiency stats are like, but I suspect much of our effectiveness is attributable to great paint scoring (56% on twos) and transition offense.

Of course, it also bears mentioning that we played three games without Wilbekin and Prather is still trying to find his spot on the team, while our starting lineup has been in flux. Should be interesting to see how we fare as things settle down a bit come January. Can Boynton get hot from the arc? Can Rosario turn it around there? Will Frazier continue improving or hit a freshman wall? Can Wilbekin expand his control of the offense?

[NorthCaptivaGator]

Two things have been proven, Walker limited our ability to switch defenses on the fly and Walker wasn't the reason we couldn't get the ball to Young in the post, in fact he did it far better than we gave been able to thus far, will be interesting to see if KB's shooting touch returns without Walkers drive and kick outs freeing him up

[gatorrick1]

A couple posters hit it right on the head, A. because of Walker's size oppossing PG's could take him into the lane at the end of the shot clock and get a relatively good shot off and B. Walker's real value was the ability to break down a defense off the dribble when our offensive sets broke down or we were late in the shot clock and get other player's shots. They didn't always result in assists, but he had several Gretzky's as well. For those that don't know a Gretzky is a pass that leads to assists. Basketball people are realizing more and more the value of player's that also get Gretzky's.

As we face teams that play more aggressive and better perimeter defense with better athlete's ( think Tennessee in Pearl days ) we will see how our PG's hold up. I personally think we will be just fine and am excited to see just how good we can be.

[stingbb]

Way too early to say as UF has played a good but not great schedule.

UF is playing very well but lets not forget the past two Gator teams, with Walker at the point advanced to the Elite Eight.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by rserina

Good question. There is a difference between shooting off the dribble and shooting off the screen. Boynton can definitely shoot off the bounce, but he struggles more off the ball screen. What makes him good off the bounce is his strength. The kid can just square his shoulder and power the ball up with his legs no matter what his starting angle is. But for whatever reason he is less confident reading the defense and shooting off the screen. Part of that is because he spent the better part of the last three years playing off the ball where he can catch and shoot, or at least catch with the intent of setting up his shot.

At least that's how I see it. I am sure Tupac would disagree and, of course, he is right.

Thanks for the thoughts. I'll watch him more closely on screens and see if I can pick it up.

[Ahab]

Boynton has been great overall but I think playing PG is affecting his shooting a little. I'd like to see Wilbekin at PG earlier in the game so we can set up Boynton with some open looks to get him going.

[tampajack1]

Originally Posted by Ahab

Boynton has been great overall but I think playing PG is affecting his shooting a little. I'd like to see Wilbekin at PG earlier in the game so we can set up Boynton with some open looks to get him going.

KB is back to his old shooting habit. He gets to the top of his leap and at the point when his legs are no longer a factor in his shot he fires a line drive wrist shot. The strange thing is that he does the opposite with his free throws. He gets his legs into his free throws and throws up a very soft shot. He needs to incorporate the same concept into his jump shot. He ought to study the Curry brothers, Ray Allen and others. You don't need to jump 2 feet in the air to shoot over someone. You just need a quick release. My guess is that KB developed some bad habits when he was a young kid playing with older guys. It's hard to get rid of old habits.

As to point guard, we had less turnovers and more easy shots with EW at the point. However, the transition from a small defensive team with EW, KB and Beal to a big defensive team with Wilbekin or Rosario replacing EW and Yeguete replacing Beal has turned us into an extraordinary defensive team, especially when we play zone. I have not watched many of this year's college teams, but it is hard to imagine that Wilbekin and Yeguete are not 2 of the best defenders in college basketball.

[themistocles]

Very interesting discussion.

This team appears to be as good as, or even better than last year's, despite losing a key leader/scorer in Walker, and the #3 draft pick.

The defense has been outstanding.

But, perhaps this has occurred due to this year's experience. Not many college teams field 3 seniors and 4 juniors.

Wilbekin is certainly a defensive advantage, and I guess even Rosario, although not a defensive stalwart, due to his height advantage over Walker, is better in a zone.

I am disappointed that Ogbuze has shown little yet, but happy that Frazier has shown a lot.

Last year, there were 3 guys who could play point: Walker, Wilbekin & Boynton. This year, right now, there are only two: Boynton & Wilbekin.

Hopefully, by midseason, that will increase to 3 (adding Ogbuze). If not, then I prefer last year's depth, but I value defense over offense any day, so I prefer this year's team with this year's PG rotation.

[keypox]

meh

down but overall team is looking good lots of depth

[akaGatorhoops]

Originally Posted by rserina

It is a definite tradeoff. What Walker brought to the table was his ability to shoot off the high ball screen, which is the basis of our entire offense. He could penetrate and pass, but Wilbekin can do those fine, as well. What neither Wilbekin nor Boynton can do is shoot off the ball screen and that is partly why our offense has been less efficient shooting the ball than in many past years. With Walker, our shooting, floor spacing, and in general our scoring ability were better.

That being said, what Wilbekin and Boynton bring to the table in terms of defense, size, and athleticism negate that loss. Those two guys give us nice size at the front of the zone, an ability to match up with bigger guards, to score in the lane, to make post entry passes, to rebound then ball (Boynton has really improved on tha front, no matter how much Donovan makes fun of him for it), and even to finish in transition. Our press is better, our half court defense is better (both man and zone), and I think out transition and paint offense are better, the latter because those guys can penetrate and score or simply get the ball to to the post.

If our frontcourt weren't playing so well on both ends, I think the benefits of Wilbekin/Boynton at the one would be mitigated a bit, but as it stands the combination of makes our defense stellar and our offense more than sufficient.

This is a fantastic post.

[sleeze]

This year, no doubt.

[chompalot]

The team seems much more balanced on offense. Also, there is more focus on the defensive end because they're longer and stronger.

[madgator]

does anyone have any stats regarding our transition points. particularly off-turnovers?


there's a few other stats I want to look into before I make judgement. as well as watch a few more games. I am very curious to know our possessions average per game as well as our opponents average.

I don't really remember Walker being a standout shooter off the screen any more or less than any other shot he would take. What I do remember is that early in his career he would force a 3 when the defender overplayed him. To his credit, by his senior year he learned when the defender overplayed him, he would cut into the lane and often kick out to an open man on the perimeter. Boynton lived off this last year. I always thought that Walker was at his best on the shot that came when he was stationary, set up, and wide open receiving a kick out. He would hit that shot even if he was 25 feet out.

as for this years team, I'm actually more concerned about matching up with a team with a talented and deep front court. Our backcourt will be fine but we lack depth in the front and if Murphy and Young get in foul trouble together. We could be in trouble against certain teams.

[egator7]

The defensive improvement is evident as most are saying. I also like the offensive improvement because we are greatly limiting the number of out of control drives that resulted in turnovers. It seems like with Frazier, Boynton, Wilbekin and Murphy, we still have a plethora of 3 point shooters. Even Will getting into the mix there.

[rserina]

does anyone have any stats regarding our transition points. particularly off-turnovers?... I am very curious to know our possessions average per game as well as our opponents average.

I am sure they are available at Gatorzone, but it is pretty hard to get a handle on how representative they are at this stage versus last season given the low sample size thus far (doing best Themistocles geek-statistician impersonation).

as for this years team, I'm actually more concerned about matching up with a team with a talented and deep front court. Our backcourt will be fine but we lack depth in the front and if Murphy and Young get in foul trouble together. We could be in trouble against certain teams.

What interests me in this connection is how Donovan will attempt to matchup with such opponents. Defensively, the effectiveness of our zone can counteract the strength of an opposing frontcourt. Offensively, I think he really found something he likes with the small lineups putting either Murphy at the five to spread the entire floor or four guards out there around Young. The way we run our offense just makes that maddening to defend, even for a great defensive team like UK in last year's league tourney. If we find ourselves against a good, big frontline, I would not be surprised to see Donovan go small and put the ball in their court to adapt.

What worries the most is that this team won't be able to overcome an opponent that can shoot threes while being defended. That's why Pearl's Lofton-Smith teams really hurt is in our two national title runs. They could hit NBA threes over a completely vertical defender. It was unbelievable. UCF hit us on a few of those. If we run into teams who can do that, we will be hard pressed to match their offensive efficiency. Too many turnovers and missed threes, not enough assists on the ball screens to compensate. Hopefully we can improve in those areas.

[madgator]

Our offensive efficiency rating is actually up over last years number. 117 vs. 115.4 now it's a very minimal amount but it does put a damper on the idea that we have in any way traded off offense for defensive improvement.

this team has improved in both statistically thus far.

it's still early in the season, but I know that I love what I am seeing

[NorthCaptivaGator]

What will be interesting to see is who will be THAT GUY, like Walker so often was, the one who is able to make the deep three to squash an opponent who gets out on a run, or the guy who carries the team through a sluggish first half like Walker did against K-State a couple of years back, so far the THAT GUY roll seems to have fallen to Rosario but I think Murphy could be the one, but, if I had to put money on it I would bet that Frazier becomes THAT GUY

[madgator]

I will agree that Walker got us through that K-State game. However, more often than not the need for him to be "that guy" and make a big play was the result of a game being closer than it should've been. Two quick examples that come to me immediately were the UGA overtime and the UCLA game from two years ago.

then of course there was the Butler game as well and the Louisville game. Smart point guard play and lockdown defense on the perimeter (think of the players/units on those teams that killed us down the stretch; the backcourts Shelvin Mack and Siva/Smith) sunk us when it mattered most.

so far, we have not been in the kind of situation where we need that guy. could this be as a result of a more controlled, defensive game dictated by a disciplined backcourt that shuts down the oppositions perimeter offense?

at this point, I am not jumping to conclusions as we have need to have a larger sample size against a wider variety of opponents. The only thing that I can say is that much of what I anticipated seems to be developing.

[rserina]

Our offensive efficiency rating is actually up over last years number. 117 vs. 115.4 now it's a very minimal amount but it does put a damper on the idea that we have in any way traded off offense for defensive improvement.

this team has improved in both statistically thus far.

Was that 115 on the basis of seven early games last year or the whole season? I think that might skew the comparison a little.

[gatorbogey]

right now, kenpom has us #3 in offense & #3 in defense! that, folks, is TREMENDOUS. haven't seen that sort of rating for UF since the nat'l title teams.



Rank Team Conf W-L Pyth AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck Pyth OppO OppD Pyth

2 Florida SEC 7-0 .9686 117.4 3 84.0 3 64.4 275 +.010 162 .6010 91 100.7 138 96.7 58 .6010 101

www.kenpom.com

in season's past, we've had some reasonable kenpom rankings - but nothing like this! - at this stage of the season. but we'd slide a bit during the season. of course, the last 2 years, we've actually done better in the ncaa's than our kenpom ratings would indicate. so i'm interested in seeing how our #'s change/vary during the season and then see how we do in the post-season. seems to me, that billy has us playing better in the ncaa's than what we've shown during the regular season. i'm smiling about the possibilities if that continues this season