Tracking Pomeroy and Sagarin 11.27.12

[gatorbogey]

always fun to track this stuff....

pomeroy has the gators #3

http://kenpom.com/

8th in adjusted offense and 7th in adjusted defense is mighty strong! that's final four mat'l!!

Data through games of Tuesday, November 27
Strength of Schedule NCSOS
Rank Team Conf W-L Pyth AdjO AdjD AdjT Luck Pyth OppO OppD Pyth
1 Indiana B10 7-0 .9695 121.7 1 86.9 6 68.9 73 +.035 116 .4730 214 97.3 270 98.3 137 .4730 214
2 Gonzaga WCC 6-0 .9449 113.6 10 86.1 4 67.6 136 +.010 163 .5262 164 101.0 142 100.0 206 .5262 164
3 Florida SEC 5-0 .9445 114.8 8 87.1 7 65.1 247 +.028 127 .5000 191 98.2 241 98.2 130 .5000 191
4 Syracuse BE 4-0 .9410 112.0 18 85.5 2 67.1 159 +.008 166 .5102 182 98.5 229 98.1 123 .5102 182
5 Louisville BE 5-1 .9401 108.0 42 82.6 1 69.0 68 -.046 242 .5715 131 102.3 99 99.5 189 .5715 131
6 Ohio St. B10 4-0 .9387 116.4 5 89.2 13 67.2 152 +.063 85 .3496 297 97.7 258 103.8 315 .3496 297
7 Duke ACC 6-0 .9383 117.8 2 90.3 22 68.5 93 +.024 133 .8130 5 106.0 14 91.9 3 .8130 5
8 Michigan B10 6-0 .9370 117.5 4 90.3 23 62.4 327 +.084 65 .7001 39 105.8 17 97.4 94 .7001 39
9 Kentucky SEC 4-1 .9348 117.6 3 90.7 25 67.2 156 +.028 126 .5426 153 102.9 83 101.2 254 .5426 153
10 Wisconsin B10 4-2 .9222 114.5 9 89.9 20 61.4 340 -.057 256 .5239 171 101.3 132 100.3 223 .5239 171


sagarin has us #7 in the composite poll, 2nd in his 'predictor'

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sport...in/bkt1213.htm

College Basketball 2012-2013 through 2012 November 27 Tuesday
RATING W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 25 | VS top 50 | ELO_SCORE | PREDICTOR
HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 4.28] [ 4.49] [ 4.07]
1 Duke = 94.52 6 0 83.88( 3) 4 0 | 4 0 | 97.48 1 | 92.87 6
2 Indiana = 94.45 7 0 71.68( 214) 1 0 | 2 0 | 92.99 3 | 96.66 1
3 Louisville = 93.52 5 1 74.79( 122) 1 1 | 1 1 | 93.95 2 | 92.90 5
4 Syracuse = 93.01 4 0 72.07( 202) 1 0 | 1 0 | 92.43 5 | 93.40 4
5 Gonzaga = 92.93 6 0 74.43( 132) 0 0 | 1 0 | 92.26 6 | 93.45 3
6 Michigan = 92.71 5 0 78.49( 43) 2 0 | 3 0 | 92.54 4 | 92.61 7
7 Florida = 92.33 5 0 73.61( 157) 1 0 | 2 0 | 91.03 8 | 93.96 2
8 Kentucky = 91.68 4 1 73.91( 147) 1 1 | 1 1 | 91.49 7 | 91.62 8
9 Kansas = 90.46 5 1 71.32( 226) 0 0 | 1 1 | 90.14 10 | 90.52 10
10 Minnesota = 89.83 7 1 77.46( 63) 0 1 | 2 1 | 90.24 9 | 89.22 15

[insuragator]

Gonna be another fun year for sure

[corpgator]

These numbers hold pretty constant too since they are adjusted for opponent strength.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by corpgator

These numbers hold pretty constant too since they are adjusted for opponent strength.

This is true, but it is a bit early for either model to have a really good hold on schedule strength as teams haven't really played very much of each other. However, KenPom and Sagarin's Predictor are probably two of the best models, so we've clearly done well so far.

[GatorPlanet]

I was expecting another good year from the Gators. I know it's too early to really tell, but so far I think we're even better than I expected, the defense being the biggest improvement.

[gatorbogey]

duke has earned the their way to the top in the sagarin...but w/ the 22nd defense according to pomeroy - still strong, but,...i like the balance we're showing.

[GatorRade]

I don't believe that "balance" adds any value in Pomeroy's ratings, since stopping an opponents 2-point shot is worth the same as making a 2-point shot.

For a comparison: Pomeroy reports that Florida has so far scored 1.15 points per offensive possession and given up 0.87 per defensive possession. Duke meanwhile has scored 1.18 points pts/poss and given up 0.90 pts/poss. Pretty even stats with a slight offensive edge to Duke and slight defensive edge to Florida.

[GatorRade]

Originally Posted by gatorbogey

duke has earned the their way to the top in the sagarin...but w/ the 22nd defense according to pomeroy - still strong, but,...i like the balance we're showing.

Also, I just took a look at the Sagarin ratings, and Indiana is still on top of the "PREDICTOR", which is the more accurate rating of a team's power. Duke meanwhile rates third in a virtual tie with Florida, which is second. So far, KenPom and PREDICTOR are tracking pretty closely, which is pretty common.

[corpgator]

Originally Posted by GatorRade

I don't believe that "balance" adds any value in Pomeroy's ratings, since stopping an opponents 2-point shot is worth the same as making a 2-point shot.

For a comparison: Pomeroy reports that Florida has so far scored 1.15 points per offensive possession and given up 0.87 per defensive possession. Duke meanwhile has scored 1.18 points pts/poss and given up 0.90 pts/poss. Pretty even stats with a slight offensive edge to Duke and slight defensive edge to Florida.

Those are schedule adjusted numbers, but they are not all that goes into his Pythagorean rating, which is what determines the ranking. Also, the teams will be begin to separate themselves in terms of those numbers as well. At the end of the season, .90 and .87 will be probably 2 and 3 in defense as opposed 7 and 21.

Here's the rankings for the tourney champs since 2003 in offense and defense from Pomeroy.

2003 Syracuse 11 19
2004 Connecticut 4 5
2005 UNC 1 5
2006 Florida 2 5
2007 Florida 1 12
2008 Kansas 2 1
2009 UNC 1 16
2010 Duke 1 4
2011 Connecticut 16 14
2012 Kentucky 2 9

So, aside from awful tournament years with weak fields, 2003 and 2011, you better have a top 4 offense and most likely a top 1 or 2.

That belies the conventional wisdom that defense wins championships. Even so, you still need a top 10 D in most years as well unless your offense is transcendent like 2007 Florida or 2009 UNC.

[gatorbogey]

good stuff, corp!!

[REM08]

Yeah agree good research. The one thing I'd add is that I think this years field may be "weak" just like 2003 and 2011. Doesn't mean adj offense isn't still the most important thing though.

[rserina]

Originally Posted by corpgator

That belies the conventional wisdom that defense wins championships. Even so, you still need a top 10 D in most years as well unless your offense is transcendent like 2007 Florida or 2009 UNC.

That axiom holds more in football than in basketball. In hoops, it is more like you can't win with bad defensive play, but the best team defensively doesn't always win.

[InstiGATOR1]

Well lets add Dean Oliver's College Basketball Power Index. Here is his pre-Marquette ranking:

Rk Team
1 Florida
2 Duke
3 Indiana
4 Syracuse
5 Oklahoma State
6 Ohio State
7 Ole Miss
8 Cincinnati
9 UNLV
10 Gonzaga

Here is the link:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-bask...index-rankings

[AlBGator1947]

http://rushthecourt.net/2012/11/28/d...am/#more-80919

In the same vein the above article presents some comparisons of the Gators to NCAA champions of the last 10 years.

[corpgator]

We're up to #2 again in Pomeroy, 5 in both offense and defense.

[corpgator]

Originally Posted by AlBGator1947

http://rushthecourt.net/2012/11/28/d...am/#more-80919

In the same vein the above article presents some comparisons of the Gators to NCAA champions of the last 10 years.

Only problem is, he's taking the final season stats, like I did, and comparing them. The team that wins the tourney sees their stats go up while playing in the tourney due to beating very good teams each round. 06 Florida went from 7 or 8 to #1 by the end. They also see both their defense and offense ratings improve as well.

The only team I haven't seen improve both along the way were the UConn in that putrid tourney and '07 Florida. We got better on offense each game and worse on defense.

[Osiris_DPM]

Here are the images of the updated Pomeroy and Sagarin in case anyone is too lazy to visit the Kenpom and Sagarin sites. I cropped them to fit FSU and Arizona in there for comparison, in case anyone was interested.

Updated Pomeroy:



Updated Sagarin:

[Osiris_DPM]

[InstiGATOR1]

Here is another one:

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/proj.../bracketology/

College Basketball NCAA Tournament Projections (BETA)

Several times a day, we simulate the entire college basketball season. Not only does that include currently scheduled games, plus the conference tournaments, it also includes NCAA tournament selection and seeding, and the NCAA tournament itself. The table below summarizes our most up to date forecast for the selection seeding, and the NCAA tournament. Click on any team's name for more details.

Projected Seed NCAA Bid Chances Seed Odds Advance To...
S-Curve TR Median Avg Team Any Auto At Large #1 Top 4 Sweet 16 Final 4 Champ%

1 1 1 1.4 Indiana 100% 51% 49% 77% 98% 82% 48% 23.1%
2 1 1 1.6 Duke 100% 43% 57% 67% 97% 67% 25% 6.6%
3 1 2 2.0 Florida 100% 51% 49% 48% 94% 75% 37% 14.3%
4 1 2 2.7 Syracuse 98% 26% 72% 38% 84% 59% 20% 5.2%
7 2 3 4.1 Ohio State 95% 17% 78% 17% 64% 53% 18% 4.8%
6 2 3 3.7 Louisville 99% 26% 73% 17% 69% 56% 18% 4.7%
9 3 3 4.2 Michigan 96% 9% 86% 15% 62% 44% 11% 2.2%
8 2 3 4.1 Kentucky 97% 26% 71% 14% 64% 53% 18% 4.5%
10 3 4 4.5 Cincinnati 94% 14% 80% 12% 57% 42% 10% 1.9%

Notice they have UF with the second highest chance, 14.3%, of winning the NCAA tourney.