Replacing Beal

[InstiGATOR1]

I argued on another thread that I thought Rosario could replace what UF got from Beal last year. I think this could make an interesting thread on its on.

First Beal productiong for UF last year was:

Beal 34.2 mins per game 14.8 points 6.7 rebounds 2.2 assists 2.1 turnovers 1.4 steals 0.8 blocks

Rosario produced:

Rosario 14.4 mins per game 6.6 points 1.4 rebounds 1.0 assists 0.9 turnovers 0.5 steals 0.1 blocks

So clearly it appears UF will lose a lot replacing Beal with Rosario. But if when playing Beal minutes Rosario maintained the same productivity, Rosario would contribute:

Rosario 34.2 mins per game 15.7 points 3.3 rebounds 2.4 assists 2.1 turnovers 1.2 steals 0.2 blocks

So if Rosario's production was maintained at his rate of production last year as his minutes rise to 34.2, then he would more than replace Beal's scoring, replace half his rebounds, replace his assists, turnovers and steals almost exactly and would lose about half a block per game.

Last season Prather contributed:

Prather 9.5 mins per game 2.0 points 1.8 rebounds 0.3 assists 0.8 turnovers 0.4 steals 0.3 blocks

If we again inflate Prather's minutes to Beal minutes and Prather's production rate stays the same with more minutes we get:

Prather 34.2 mins per game 7.2 points 6.5 rebounds 1.1 assists 2.7 turnovers 1.4 steals 1.1 blocks

With Prather, we get only half the Beal scoring but replace the rebounding. Prather's trunovers are a bit higher and assists down about an assist, but his steals are the same and his blocks are a bit better.

Overall, if it is Rosario relacing Beal, either he must rebound better or other guys must pick up those missing three rebounds. I bet few realize that Beal's turnover rate was essentially the same as Rosario's last season. If it is Prather replacing Beal, either Prathr must score better this season or other must pick up the scoring slack. Again the turnover difference is not as great as one might have guessed.

[dalwood13]

As I posted in the other thread, it will be a combined effort between Rosario, Wilbekin and Prather. Rosario's defensive responsibilities will not be the same as Beal's were last season. Mike will very much contribute to replacing Beal's scoring but it will also come from Kenny hopefully continuing his improved efficiency and Wilbekin and Prather being more assertive.

Mike will not have the opportunity to go the glass the same way Brad did, but he has shown very good opportunistic rebounding because he has such a good feel for the game. Defensively, Wilbekin and Prather will be guarding the other team's 3 and going hard to the glass.

I truly believe that UF will be a more rounded, efficient and generally better team than last year, even though we lost Bradley Beal.

[InstiGATOR1]

I agree that UF may be a better team this year than last. I mainly started this thread to try to head off any mythology developing around what UF lost with Beal this year. Beal was a good player for UF last year, but his production and shooting percentages were hardly out of this world.

[your_perfect_enemy]

The only problem with extraplolating numbers like that is I would guess Beal was significantly more efficient shooting the ball than Rosario. So he could fill the scoring but others would have less shots because of the volume Rosario takes. That's not to say Rosario won't become more efficient, it certainly sounds like he's taken a nice step foward.

[InstiGATOR1]

Originally Posted by your_perfect_enemy

The only problem with extraplolating numbers like that is I would guess Beal was significantly more efficient shooting the ball than Rosario. So he could fill the scoring but others would have less shots because of the volume Rosario takes. That's not to say Rosario won't become more efficient, it certainly sounds like he's taken a nice step foward.

Actually, they both shot 34% from the arc, or to expand it out 33.9% for Beal and 33.7% for Rosario. They both shot well from the FT line 76.9% for Beal and 75.0% for Rosario. They also shot a similar percentage from the field overall, 44.5% for Beal and 43.0% for Rosario. Their effective shooting percentage were 52.5% for Beal and 52.6% for Rosario. Their offensive ratings [points per 100 possessions] were pretty similar too, 112.2 for Beal and 106.5 for Rosario. All of these come from statsheet.com:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/com...1=bradley-beal

So other than the 3 rebounds a game, Rosario seems like a very similar player to Beal to me.

[bullish]

How about Devon Walker, 6'5", freshman, has anyone heard how's he is doing. Could he have a better handle that Prather, a better shot that Rosario, quicker than these two. Just wondering why Billy is so hard on playing guards at the wing? We lack rebounding and defense with smaller players. Has anyone seen or heard how he is doing?

[themistocles]

Interesting discussion.

Of course, we must remember that Beal was a true freshman, and you are comparing stats with a true sophomore and a 4th year junior.

With Rosario, there is likely a bit of loss on defense, although, as Dalwood noted, Rosario is not likely to be defending the 3.

Regarding Walker, I know that Bullis doesn't like him very much, but I really think that he could be a contributor in a couple of years. To me it appears doubtful he will contribute much this year, unless he develops very rapidly.

[CoachSayre]

Scottie, MR, Prather and some DW will play the 3. Depends on what lineups are in the game. We will be playing with those combos tonight. Rosario isn't going to take the shot selection and the volume he did at Rutgers here.

[InstiGATOR1]

Originally Posted by bullish

How about Devon Walker, 6'5", freshman, has anyone heard how's he is doing. Could he have a better handle that Prather, a better shot that Rosario, quicker than these two. Just wondering why Billy is so hard on playing guards at the wing? We lack rebounding and defense with smaller players. Has anyone seen or heard how he is doing?

I am very intrigued by D.Walker too. I think UF lists 6'6". He played PG when the regular PG at his high school was not eligible for a time. So I agree he might have a better handle than either Prather or Parsons. In the EYBL he was NOT a great shooter from the arc, so I suspect he will need to grow in that area vis-a-vis Frazier and Graham.

With Prather's 25 minutes available tonight, I see 50 minutes or about 12.5 minutes per Frosh available. I will be very curious to see who is off the bench first, who gets the most minutes and how each of the 4 frosh look.

[gatordd]

one name... Michael Frazier

[Row6]

Frazier lit it up tonight and has Beal type body, though he might be an inch shorter.

[InstiGATOR1]

Frazier is an inch taller than Beal. Of course everyone looks good when their shot is falling. So I would not let one hot exhibition game sway me too much.

Now if he nails a bunch of 3s against Alabama State, then I will start seeing a trend. I suspect the Georgetown game will be one where if he gets in he will not have a complete green light.

[swampgas44]

Originally Posted by bullish

How about Devon Walker, 6'5", freshman, has anyone heard how's he is doing. Could he have a better handle that Prather, a better shot that Rosario, quicker than these two. Just wondering why Billy is so hard on playing guards at the wing? We lack rebounding and defense with smaller players. Has anyone seen or heard how he is doing?

Walker went 1 for 5 shooting tonight and his form on his jump shot is really poor. Looks like he should concentrate on put backs, rebounding, and defense. On the plus side, it looks like Frazier, Graham, and Ogbueze can all knock down shots and be excellent scorers off the bench.

[intimigator1]

What...replace Beal's last 12 games?? I'm sure other players can wait till that point to look like a player possessed to play in the NBA. Replace Beal...give me a break.

[dalwood13]

Originally Posted by intimigator1

What...replace Beal's last 12 games?? I'm sure other players can wait till that point to look like a player possessed to play in the NBA. Replace Beal...give me a break.

What an asinine post. It's very convenient to forget that Brad was a true freshman. Obviously, as you become more accustomed to the college game, you will look better. Even still, he was easily one of the most prepared and capable true freshman we've ever had and one of the best all around players to wear the orange and blue.

[REM08]

Intimigator's post made me think of this 'replacing Beal' thing a little differently. You're not necessarily trying to replace his average numbers throughout the season. What matters much more than that IMO is the type of player he was late in the season.

I don't remember his numbers as well as you guys do, did they change much towards the end of the year? I just remember my eyeball-test like reaction to seeing him play was different in the tournament than it was during the OOC part of the year. You guys didn't reach the elite eight based on the average contributions of collective players throughout the year; you made it with the March version of the team. I think some players are what they are throughout the year, or their numbers actually go down, but I remember Beal changing significantly.

[MadduxFanII]

It's fine to say you can "replace" Beal with the contributions of three different players, but that's not actually a good thing. You still only get five guys on a court at once and you still only get a certain number of scholarships. The whole point of a guy like Beal is that he can do what three players can do all by himself, thus freeing up playing time for other guys who can do other things. So, sure, Rosario might be able to replace Beal's scoring, and Prather might be able to replace his defense and rebounding, and so on and so forth (and I say "might" because I think taking a player's numbers, multiplying them out to Beal's minutes and saying "Voila, this is what they'll do in 34.2 minutes" is iffy), but if you need two or three people to do what one player did, that's still a loss.

Now, there is a kernel of a point here, which is that Beal, for all the hype and the huge draft position, was not an exceptionally effective offensive player during most of his one year in Gainesville. He was a fine defender and a great rebounder the whole season and he played much better offensively toward the end of the year.

[RD_gator]

What if Florida has to go up against a team with a great SF (i.e, a UK's Kidd-Gilchrist) in a key SEC game or in an NCAA tourney game? I would want Florida to have a more physically capable player of defending this position & to be able to rebound against this type of player. I think a defensive oriented player here is more important than an offensively capable player. Using two players (i.e, Rosario & Wilbekin) at the SF position could be problematic at times;especially, during transition defense when one player has to go find the guy he is defending to match-up against. It's better to use just one player at SF in most circumstances.

On UF's squad, a player that is tall enough & athletic enough to play SF would be 6'6 209 Casey Prather; another potential player could be the freshman 6'4 200 Michael Frazier. I think 6'6" 190 Devon Walker could probably use another year to get more muscle weight in him; although, I could be wrong in my assumption.

If Florida wants to utlize Rosario's offensive abilities, I think that it would be better to keep him at shooting guard & have the following PG:SG groupings:

PG: Boynton & SG: Rosario, or
PG: Wilbekin & SG: Rosario.

Besides, it would be much more beneficial to Casey Prather's development & the other freshmen's experience if he would start at SF over Rosario. While UF is on offense, Prather could also flash in the post (while Murphy could wander out to the perimeter) to take advantage of his offensive rebounding skills & post-play ability (as demonstrated in his break-out game during the NCAA tourney). Florida could still have 3-players around the perimeter as a threat from behind the arc. I would rather that Florida field a bigger, more physical team than a finesse 3-guard oriented line-up that is susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds!

[RD_gator]

It's funny, in the last few seasons, Florida enjoyed watching a couple of players that really excelled at the SF position often having stats approaching the triple double range (in points, rebounds, assists, etc.):
- 6'8" Chandler Parsons (2010 SEC poy)
- 6'4" Bradley Beal (3rd pick in the 2011 NBA draft)

Who on Florida's present roster is best suited to play the small forward position?
- should it be a committee approach?
- or should the Gators settle on a couple of key players?

[ThePlayer]

Originally Posted by gatordd

one name... Michael Frazier

Like the name...love the game.