Gray's Picks: Week #11

[The_Graygator]

A 10 - 5 effort in Week #10 leaves me standing at 110 - 44 overall, 10 - 1 on Thursday Nights, and 6 - 4 on my Upset Specials. Here we go on Week #11...





THURSDAY NIGHT'S GAME:



South Florida @ Rutgers: Scarlet Knights by 3



Hard one to pick.



Rutgers - 28



USF - 20



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FRIDAY NIGHT'S GAME





West Virginia @ Cincinnati: Bearcats by 8.5



There's been a lot of upsets lately, so Cincy better watch out in this one. Could be closer than some expect. If the Mountaineers pulled the upset, it wouldn't surprise me.



Cincy - 27



West Virginia - 21



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SATURDAY'S GAMES



Iowa @ Ohio State: Buckeyes by 13



Iowa was brought back down to Earth by Northwestern last weekend and will be anxious to get back on track, but I don't think it happens in the Horseshoe.



Ohio State - 26



Iowa - 14



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Michigan @ Wisconsin: Badgers by 8



Ho hum! Wake me when it's over. ;-)



Wisky - 28



Michigan - 17



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Clemson @ N.C. State: Tiggers by 4.5



Should be a few points in this one. Clemson better be ready to play.



Clemson - 35



N.C. State - 24



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Kentucky @ Vanderbilt: Wildcats by 3



The battle of the SEC cellar-dwellars.



Kentucky - 21



Vandy - 20



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UPSET SPECIAL



Tennessee @ Mississippi: Rebels by 3.5



This is another hard one to figure out, but I think UT's defense and Eric Berry wins this one for the Vols.



Tennessee - 20



'Ole Miss - 17



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Notre Dame @ Pittsburgh: Panthers by 6.5



Pitt favored by 6 over the media darling Irish? Hmmm.



Notre Dame - 29



Pitt - 22



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Stanford @ Southern Cal: Trojans by 10



Look for the Cardinal to get crushed after their upset win against Oregon and USC's near - miss at Arizona State.



Southern Cal - 38



Stanford - 17



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Auburn @ Georgia: Bulldogs by 4.5



Georgia - 30



Auburn - 21



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Arizona @ California: Wildcats by 2



Cal - 27



Arizona - 24



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Southern Miss @ Marshall: Golden Eagles by 3



S. Miss - 32



Marshall - 27



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Miami @ North Carolina: Hurricanes by 5.5



Butch Davis hosts his old team and is hoping to pull the upset, but the Canes seem to thrive in road games, especially close ones. Miami QB Jacory Harris is coming along well as possibly the ACC's best QB. Look for this one to be a good game.



Miami - 34



North Carolina - 28



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Florida State @ Wake Forest: Demon Deacons by 6



This all comes down to two things... One, FSU QB Christian Ponder, who's passing arm is the majority of the FSU offense, is out for the season with a dislocated shoulder, so enter inexperienced freshman E.J. Manuel being thrown into a baptism of fire in a road game against an opponent who's had success of late v.s. the nolies.



Two, Wake's spread/option offense tends to give FSU's defenses fits.



Wake Forest - 27



FSU - 7





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Florida @ South Carolina: Gators by 15



South Carolina's offense is around the bottom in the SEC in scoring ppg per game with about 21, and the Gator defense is one of the best in the nation in scoring defense allowing only 8.6 ppg, and that's where this game will be decided Saturday... the Gator D v.s. the Gamecock O.



Florida hasn't thrown a shut-out this season yet, but in their 9 games so far, they've had six games where they've allowed 7 points or less. Three of games they've only allowed one FG by their opponent. The USC run-game is hurting and their OL seems to be struggling some as the Gator D looks to be the healthiest since Game #1 of the season. I expect the USC OT's to have a rough time handling the Gators' DE's in this game and their QB Garcia not having a lot of options to run with Spikes and the Gator LB's prowling around.



Garcia will have to try and beat the Gators with his arm, but I like the Gators secondary match-up v.s. USC's recievers too.



On offense, the Gators will be methodical and try to run the ball, control the clock, but most importantly, try to win the field position battle in order to allow the Gator D to give them favorable starting field positions. I believe we were flat for the Commodores after a huge emotional win over UGA the week before and expect the Gator offense to be in a better rhythm in this game.



It won't be anything fancy, just methodical production, passing when we need it, but a heavy dose of the Gator RB's, TE Aaron Hernandez, and of course, QB Tim Tebow.



Turnovers will be the main factor in this game. In UF's three games leading up to the Georgia game, the Gators turned the ball over 7 times which turned into 5 opponents' scores, and the Gators won those three games by an average margin of victory of 7.6 points. In UF's last two games, they did not turn the ball over and won both games by 24 points apiece.



Don't expect the Gators to take many chances in this game but to come into Columbia with a business-like attitude and get out with a win.



Florida - 30



South Carolina - 13

[AtlSwampMonster]

Thanks Grey I look foward to your picks every week. Go GATORS!!!!

[gator34654]

Agree with all except auby and uga. I think auburn wins but will be a close game.

[PTCGator]

Gray, nice set of picks. I'm expecting the Gator offense to put a few decent TD drives together and set the tone early. Our "D" may also grab a turnover or two and put points on the board. USCe will be lucky if they get 10. Final score will be around 38-10. I'll also go with Auburn over the Dawgs. If the Aubies can pull it off, mark my words...DawgVent will have a nuclear meltdown!

[kalaniocc]

Originally Posted by AtlSwampMonster

Thanks Grey I look foward to your picks every week. Go GATORS!!!!

Me too. Good stuff

[BobK89]

With all due respect to Gray, whose posts and insight I enjoy, unless you are picking against the spread it's hard to validate the record.

Now, if we're picking the money line, that's another story.

[BigSlick]

I am with you on the UF pick, about what I expect. I think AU beats UGly and I think the news about ne'keese et al, it will be hard for UT to win this one this week.

[The_Graygator]

Originally Posted by PTCGator

Gray, nice set of picks. I'm expecting the Gator offense to put a few decent TD drives together and set the tone early. Our "D" may also grab a turnover or two and put points on the board. USCe will be lucky if they get 10. Final score will be around 38-10. I'll also go with Auburn over the Dawgs. If the Aubies can pull it off, mark my words...DawgVent will have a nuclear meltdown!

Yeah. I'm thinking UF scores 3 TD's and 3 FG's, a couple of those scores set up by a pair of USC turnovers.

[Bazza]

Nicely done - but where's the 'Bama game? Not what I'd like to see but I pick MS to win in a close one. McElroy will be the pivital player in determining who wins.

[The_Graygator]

I didn't really think much of that game actually. It's in Starkville, correct? MSU just doesn't have enough offense to be competitive with Bama IMO.

[RealGatorFan]

Agree except Pitt beat ND, Auburn wins, and our score will be 24-13.

[GatorVOR]

Thanks Gray. I really look forward to your picks.

[Bazza]

Originally Posted by The_Graygator

I didn't really think much of that game actually. It's in Starkville, correct? MSU just doesn't have enough offense to be competitive with Bama IMO.

Yes, it's in Starkville so there's a home advantage for MS. Also I believe Dan Mullin will have a competitive strategy against 'Bama both on O and D.

Also, in my opinion, 'Bama is a bit over-rated and has squeezed through some of thier games this year, which they could have lost, which in my analysis makes them beatable under the right circumstances.

This game is one they could lose on the basis of their QB McElroy having issues and MS's QB having a good day. If MS can control the run game (Ingram) - a tall order I know - but that together with opposing QB performances will determine who wins.

'Bama is favored by 12 points so this would be an upset, obviously.

We'll see - should be a good game, IMO. 7PM on ESPN....

[The_Graygator]

Originally Posted by Bazza

Yes, it's in Starkville so there's a home advantage for MS. Also I believe Dan Mullin will have a competitive strategy against 'Bama both on O and D.

Also, in my opinion, 'Bama is a bit over-rated and has squeezed through some of thier games this year, which they could have lost, which in my analysis makes them beatable under the right circumstances.

This game is one they could lose on the basis of their QB McElroy having issues and MS's QB having a good day. If MS can control the run game (Ingram) - a tall order I know - but that together with opposing QB performances will determine who wins.

'Bama is favored by 12 points so this would be an upset, obviously.

We'll see - should be a good game, IMO. 7PM on ESPN....

Finally!

I was avoiding saying it but Bazza did it for me... Bama is a bit overrated. I agree, and I think they've been extremely lucky this season too. As for their MSU game, I just don't think the Bulldogs' QB is experienced enough in Mullen's new systems yet to be able to apply that well enough against a defense as good as Bama's right now. That will lead to MSU turnovers IMO.

They only managed 6 offensive points against UF; two FG's.

MSU's defense isn't what I'd call bad or great either, but they just don't have the depth to avoid being worn down by Bama as this game wears on.

Though I don't think Bama will lose this game, I'd be ecstatic if MSU gave them a scare like UT or LSU did.

[g8rgrad07]

I can't see MSU beating Alabama. While I agree Bama is overrated, I think they are too tough for a team like MSU to bring the upset. Within the next couple years, maybe, but right now I don't think they have the athletes to match up with Alabama. This isn't the Pac-10 where teams like Washington and Stanford can pick off the top dogs. It's hard to win an upset over a tough defensive football team. I think it will be close but Alabama holds on 21-20.

[The_Graygator]

Originally Posted by g8rgrad07

I can't see MSU beating Alabama. While I agree Bama is overrated, I think they are too tough for a team like MSU to bring the upset. Within the next couple years, maybe, but right now I don't think they have the athletes to match up with Alabama. This isn't the Pac-10 where teams like Washington and Stanford can pick off the top dogs. It's hard to win an upset over a tough defensive football team. I think it will be close but Alabama holds on 21-20.

That close? I'm not including this in my official picks list but I'd have to say 24 - 10 Bama.

[keypox]

I think ole miss will beat tenn.

[Bazza]

Don't forget this is SEC football where anything can go - and MS are probably not happy being unranked going into this game - this is a trap game for the Crimson Tide....

Also remembering last year when top-ranked 'Bama was exposed by us in the SECC and then losing to the Utes....

'Bama runs an outstanding program. They are huge well-conditioned and fundamentally coached - but the X factor can bring them down on any Saturday.

Shut down Ingram and McElroy has an off night and -------> they're done.

[The_Graygator]

Granted, good points but Utah didn;t face the same Bama OL we did in the SECCG. The one they faced was patchwork with Smith gone, two others hurt, and four total different positions switched up.

Utah doesn't beat Bama with the OL UF faced a month earlier.

[Bazza]

My followup post on Alabama vs. MS....wow.....did my remarks fire up 'Bama or what?

McElroy had an outstanding night and along with consistent rushing from Ingram and Richardson 'Bama chose last night to serve notice to the Gator Nation...."we" had better bring IT on Dec. 5

Their defense held MS scoreless through 3 quarters....outstanding defensive backs making a huge difference.

Looking forward to seeing their game with Auburn which will be another away game.

PS - Note to self.....when the Graygator speaks - listen to what the man sez!