[HudsonGator]

February 14, 2013

Why doesn't NFL Draft mirror Rivals rankings?

Dallas Jackson
Columnist

Since 1998, there have been 12 quarterbacks taken with the first pick in the NFL Draft -- and 2013 could make it 13 as the Kansas City Chiefs reportedly are mulling taking West Virginia's Geno Smith.

But that trend hasn't been reflected in recruiting rankings as Rivals.com has named a defensive end the top prospect in four of the past five classes, including the initial class of 2014 Rivals100 ranking, with Woodbridge (Va.) High DE Da'Shawn Hand in the top spot.

Rivals.com national recruiting analyst Mike Farrell said if the rankings were simply about predicting the NFL draft, Rivals.com would just tab QBs. But they are not.

"Some people will say quarterback is the most valuable spot because it goes first in the NFL Draft every year, but future projections are only part of the equation when it comes to rankings," Farrell said. "The way positions get overvalued as you move up the ladder is a part of the rationale of why a quarterback isn't our top guy every year. I would love it if there were a quarterback worth that top spot every year, but the bottom line is that so much with a quarterback is mental; and that is one of the hardest parts to determine on this level.

"Some people will say quarterback is the most valuable spot because it goes first in the NFL Draft every year, but future projections are only part of the equation when it comes to rankings," Farrell said. "The way positions get overvalued as you move up the ladder is a part of the rationale of why a quarterback isn't our top guy every year. I would love it if there were a quarterback worth that top spot every year, but the bottom line is that so much with a quarterback is mental; and that is one of the hardest parts to determine on this level.

"I don't want it to sound like an easy way out, but when you see a big, rare athlete at the defensive end position, or an incredibly athletic offensive tackle, or a linebacker that can rush and cover in space with all the physical tools, or even a cornerback that has size and speed, those are easier to rank than high school quarterbacks.

"The competition level that a quarterback goes against in high school changes from player to player, as do his receivers, linemen, everything really, and we are against the wall in that aspect," Farrell said. "When I hear that Rivals missed on this guy or that guy, it isn't really true or fair. Some guys get into a system that is wrong for them or one that really benefits their game. Some develop late. Some have an 'it factor' that you just can't see when you put them in a camp setting."

Three of the four quarterbacks who reached the AFC and NFC Championship games were rated as three-stars by Rivals.com. Tom Brady was in college before the first class of players was evaluated in 2002.

Matt Ryan was a three-star from Philadelphia (Pa.) William Penn Charter. He ran a Wing-T offense in high school and had only four offers being ranked No. 25 at his position in the class of 2003.

Colin Kaepernick famously had only one football offer coming out of Turlock (Calif.) Pitman. He was a touted baseball player with a handful of offers to stay on the diamond but chose football. He was a three-star and the No. 34 player at his position.

Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco had six offers and chose Pittsburgh before transferring to Delaware. He was the No. 39 pro-style quarterback from Audubon (N.J.) High....

http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com...sp?CID=1471836