Imho, take the Tigers and give the 2.5 pts for their semi game. They should give the semis a beatdown.
In bowls games the team that wants it the most generally wins...but this one may come down to who has the most success in the running game and...
In their top 4 games this year...USC, Utah, Washington and Oregon...they barely topped 6 yards per attempt, with only 8 total completions more...