Kentucky Depth Chart

http://kentucky.rivals.com/cdepthtext.asp

Kentucky NCAA stats for the year:

http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/r...r=2010&org=334

It's hard to get a good handle on Kentucky, since they've played a really weak schedule, but they do have some obvious strengths.

1. Strong run game.
2. A lot of good pass catchers (4 over 6'4 with 7 or more receptions)
3. Randall Cobb.

So the offense is going challenge Florida's defense with it's balance and diversity. Also, and this is key, they have 0 turnovers on the year, so they take care of the football, which is bad for Florida, since takeaways have been key to their success this year.

Florida's first goal has to be stopping the run. Against traditional one back, and I-formation systems this year, UF has allowed 27 yards on 45 carries. That is amazing. However, in one game against a talented mobile QB, UF gave up 244 yards on 39 carries. Joke Philips has probably watched the film on that, so I'd be really surprised if UF doesn't see a whole bunch of Randall Cobb in the wildcat on Saturday. Cobb is probably more talented than BJ Daniels, so if Florida has a repeat defensive performance as they did against Daniels in the USF game, then UF is in big trouble.

When Cobb isn't at QB, UF should have a fair advantage, because UK's OL is not that strong. They are an average unit, missing their best player (OG Stuart Hines) and the running game should be further weakened by the loss of their FB (Moncell Allen). QB Mike Hartline is not a world beater. He is an average QB, maybe even good when he's not under any pressure, but he doesn't always make good decisions when defenses are making him think fast or run for his life. Florida has to get after him, and they should have some success at that as long as Derrick Locke isn't gashing them for huge yards on those draw plays that UK likes to run.

UF will have the fastest secondary that UK has seen this year BY FAR, and that speed should be a big advantage for UF, as long as there aren't blown coverages like last week against UT. UF could afford that last week because the UT offense was pretty bad, and they weren't likely to score without more busted coverages. UK on the other hand, can score on their own, and UF doesn't need to help them out with guys wide open by 20 yards.

The UK defense is an average SEC unit, which means it's pretty decent. They have a few good players spread out around the unit and are very similar to USF on this front. Their DL is lead by Ricky Lumpkin in the middle, but the depth isn't that great. The DE's have been fairly disruptive, but the defense as a whole has only gained 4 turnovers, and that is against some pretty weak competition. They do have 9 sacks and 24 TFL, so they have been pretty aggressive, and probably will be again against Florida's run game to try to stop drives quickly with big plays. LB Danny Trevathan has 6 TFL on the year, and UF will have to block extremely well when running to his side of the field.

UKs secondary is lead by CB Randall Burden and S Winston Guy. Both players could eventually have NFL careers, but really haven't produced too much to this point, and behind them there is a lot of inexperience. As long as UF protects Brantley like they have all year, UF should have a decent edge in the passing game. Weaker teams have beaten Uk in the secondary this year, but have been unable to make UK pay for it. UF has to make them pay.

This is a dangerous game for UF. Their offense has been mediocre, and they have been surviving on field position and turnovers provided by special teams and defense.
This is the most complete team that UF has faced, and they are a perfect trap game between two big road games. If UF doesn't get big plays out of special teams and defense, then this game will be extremely close, because UK will score some points, and UF probably won't score enough to make this anything but a nail biter.

That being said, UK is #112 and #116 in kick return and punt return defense, and their net punting is average at #51 in the country, and their FG kicker is just 4-9 in his career. UF should win the special teams battle comfortably, which should give them better field position most of the day.

Here is my prediction:

1st Qtr - UF 3 - UK 7

I think UK comes storming out with a purpose like most teams have this year against Florida. I think this will mark the 4th straight game that UF's opponent scores first. I believe that Locke and Cobb will make some big plays in the first drive, Hartline will make a few throws, and UK will score early. I think UF gets good field position on the kickoff, and then moves the ball just enough for a FG. Both defenses settle down after that a bit.

Half time - UF 10 - UF 10

The 2nd quarter will be filled with angst. UK will get a FG to take a 10-3 lead, and then Florida fumbles away a drive. I think the defense makes a big stop, and then UK misses a mid range FG. I think Florida then drives down the field on a big play in the passing game, and scores a TD with very little time left before half time to eek out a tie after 2.

3rd Qtr - UF 24 - UK 17

UF, as per their usual pattern this year, comes out focused and driven in the 3rd quarter. They score a TD on their first drive and then the UF defense grabs an interception leaving UF with a short field leading to their next TD. UK does respond on a big play from Cobb late in the 3rd quarter.

Final - UF 34 - UK 17

At this point, UF is running the ball down UKs throat, and there isn't much they can do to stop it. UFs bigger, badder OL has taken over and the go on a long drive between the 3rd and 4th quarter to score another TD. UK drives back to respond, but is stopped on 4th down inside the UF 10 yard line. UF drives down the field slowly and methodically and adds another FG before time expires.

-I think UF will have over 400 yards of offense in the game, including 200-250 rushing. I think Kentucky will go over 300 as well, and it'll be clutch third down defense that makes the difference. I think UF will have a good day converting 3rd down, after watching the tape and seeing how money JB is on 3rd down.

-After the game, the absolute must fix issue of the year will be the 1st quarter. UF will have finally broken their scoreless streak with the early FG, but UF will now have been outscored 20-3 in the opening quarter through 4 games, and heading into the meat of the SEC schedule, people have to realize that if UF doesn't figure something out, they'll get blasted a few times.

-The offensive line will have it's best game of the year after overall, and a dominating 2nd half.

-People will still complain about the offense, but we will feel a bit better going into Alabama, that when UF absolutely must score, they can get the job done.