Prediction: Florida vs. LSU
Posted 10-07-2010 at 07:41 AM by slayerxing
LSU Depth Chart
http://lsu.rivals.com/cdepthtext.asp
LSU Schedule, Stats, and Rankings
http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/r...r=2010&org=365
The LSU Defense:
This is one of the fastest units that Florida has seen in a while, especially up front. That's the bad news. The good news for Florida fans is that their best DE to this point, Sam Montgomery, will miss the rest of the season with an injury, and another DE, Kendrick Adams, will probably miss the game as well.
This is great news for Florida, because one of the keys to LSUs smothering defense is QB pressure, and they are #10 in the country averaging 3.2 sacks per game. So although they will still be very formidable rushing the passer, they do lose a bit of a threat in that area with Montgomery out. They still do get a lot of pressure from the SECs best DT in Drake Nevis in the middle, and his match up with the interior of the UF OL, which has struggled at times this year, will probably go a long way in determining who wins the game.
The other big time pass rushers are DE Barkevious Mingo and CB Tyrann Mathieu, who has been very effective with his blitzes this year. They both have 2.5 sacks, and will give UFs big tackles a challenge on the edge with their speed rush. Marcus Gilbert will probably be the best Tackle they've seen all year, and he's been solid in every single game, so in my mind, the only question is whoever plays RT, and so far, the Xavier Nixon experiement over there hasn't gone so well. He'll need to have his best game of the season to keep Brantley's jersey clean, which is even more important this week with the damaged ribs.
The LB corp for LSU is fast, and can be disruptive at times. Kelvin Sheppard and Ryan Baker have a combined 10 TFL, and you can believe they'll be shooting gaps, crashing the edge, and otherwise making life miserable for whatever half injured RB UF sends out on Saturday. That to me is a big thing no one is talking about. Demps and Gillislee, UF's 2 big play threats at RB are both injured. They both will probably play, but that is advantage LSU. I don't expect UFs ground game to get much going, especially if Moody is the only healthy back, and so it'll really come down to how well John Brantley can manage the short passing game.
He'll be going against one of the more athletic secondaries in the country. Tyrann Mathieu, Patrick Petersen, and Morrise Claiborne make up a strong group of CBs, and Brandon Taylor has been solid at Safety. Outside of the UNC debacle in the 2nd half (where LSU decided to play their backups for some reason), LSU is only giving up about 106 yards passing per game in the last 4 game. The good news though, is that although they get a lot of pass deflections (19), they don't get a lot of interceptions (6), and 5 of those came in one game against MSU.
So, with the UF running game potentially on the fritz on Saturday, Brantley will have to go to a solid group of possession guys on short and intermediate routes to keep the chains moving. Deonte Thompson, Carl Moore, and Ommarius Hines have actually proven to be quite effective on these types of routes in 2010, but Brantley will have to be extremely accurate, because if he misses, LSU will be there to eat it up. I think the key offensive player for the game is going to have to be Deonte Thompson. He is UFs leading receiver, and has been a consistent offensive player the last few weeks. If he can't get open, then UF will really struggle moving the ball unless someone else steps up.
I think this is a perfect game, especially with the injuries to UFs speed rushers, to get Debose on the field a lot more. UF is going to need SOMEONE that can break the game open on any touch, and Debose is really the only guy left that can do that who isn't injured. I also think that Burton should get more touches running the ball this week, because I don't see how UF is going to run the ball without him against LSU's defensive front. It'll be interesting to see what the coaches do with these two talented players situationally this week, and how they use them will go a long way in determining whether UF wins or loses.
LSU Offense:
Offensively, UF's mission is simple. Man up on the outside, and stop the run. If LSU can't run the ball, they won't score unless they get lucky and break a long play. Period. The offense just isn't that good. Jefferson and Ridley are a good combo running the ball, but not really that scary. Ridley is 230 pounds and is leading the SEC in rushing at 111.4 yards per game. UF needs to load the box and keep him from ever getting started, similar to how they contained Charles Scott in 2008 and 2009. They'll need to get penetration against LSU's front, because if they don't stop him before he gets rolling, he's hard to bring down. Other than that, they just need to be responsible in their assignments, and not overrun Jefferson, and LSU will be pretty simple to stop.
When Jarret lee comes in, the gameplan changes slightly because he's a better passer than a runner, but you'll still want to key on Ridley. The other thing that Florida will want to do is confuse both QBs, because they both have a tendency to make bad decisions, especially if Florida can manage to get some pressure on the two of them. LSU's offensive line is pretty good, they're getting LSU 4.96 yards per carry (UF is 4.17) and they have given up only 7 sacks in 5 games. So It'll be a challenege for Florida up front, and again, that battle in the trenches will determine how well LSU can move the ball. If the UF DL is getting a lot of pressure, and stopping the run, then LSU might not score. At all. But if the DL is losing the battle, you'll be surprised at how good the LSU offense has the potential to be.
LSU Special Teams:
Some of the best in the country. They have a really good kicker, decent punter, and their KR and PR games are some of the best in the country with PP returning kicks. UF will have to play perfectly in their coverage games, because one mistake, and this kid can score. He's already proven that this year, and after the big breakdown last week against ALabama, one wonders if UF will kick it to him at all. This is LSUs best offensive weapon right now, so it'll be interesting to see how the coaches handle it.
Chaz Henry will kick FGs again, and he looked good last week, and he might be the best punter in the country, but with Demps hurting, and Gillislee probably out, UFs return game will probably be a lot weaker this week. This is an area where LSU has a pretty big advantage IMO, which is rare under urban meyer.
Prediction:
I think LSU is going to come out flat against the night crowd, and I think Florida is going to build a pretty big early lead against LSU. I think Brantley will take UF down the field on the first two drives of the game, and get Florida ahead 10-0 before LSU knows what happened. LSU won't turn the ball over, but they will struggle to get first downs, and it'll look like a blow out as the Quarter ends.
End Qtr 1 - UF 10 - LSU 0
I think LSU bounces back in the 2nd quarter, a quarter where UF has REALLY struggled this year, and I think UF turns the ball over, maybe even a couple times. I do think the UF defense keeps LSU out of the end zone though, and after really just stinking the place up for a quarter, UF will go to halftime with a small lead.
Halftime - UF 10 - LSU 6
In the 3rd, I think UF comes out with a lot of energy, similar to every game this year, and drives down the field for a quick FG to start the half. I think LSU then takes a long drive (time wise) after a great KR and kicks another FG to keep pace. UF gets the ball and goes on another long drive, and they still have the ball when the quarter ends.
End Qtr 3 - UF 13 - LSU 9
The Gator offense hits pay dirt in the 4th when they score a TD, but LSU won't go away, and on one of those mad hatter type 4th down converting drives, LSU scores a TD to keep the game tight and makes the 2 pt conversion. I think Florida is unable to score against a fired up LSU defense, but then the Florida defense forces a turnover to get the ball back. Again, Florida can't end the game, but LSU turns the ball over again on their last possession and UF hangs on to win.
Final - UF 20 - LSU 17
I don't think either offense will get much over 300 yards of total offense, and I think both teams could have 2 or 3 turnovers. I think the key will be Brantley's ability to convert on 3rd and 6+, where he has been pretty good all year considering how often UF has been in that position. I think the UF offense will still be an area of a lot of fan scrutiny, and heading into the MSU game, UF will be beat up on both sides of the ball, but will be in sole possession of 1st in the east after SC loses to Alabama.
http://lsu.rivals.com/cdepthtext.asp
LSU Schedule, Stats, and Rankings
http://web1.ncaa.org/football/exec/r...r=2010&org=365
The LSU Defense:
This is one of the fastest units that Florida has seen in a while, especially up front. That's the bad news. The good news for Florida fans is that their best DE to this point, Sam Montgomery, will miss the rest of the season with an injury, and another DE, Kendrick Adams, will probably miss the game as well.
This is great news for Florida, because one of the keys to LSUs smothering defense is QB pressure, and they are #10 in the country averaging 3.2 sacks per game. So although they will still be very formidable rushing the passer, they do lose a bit of a threat in that area with Montgomery out. They still do get a lot of pressure from the SECs best DT in Drake Nevis in the middle, and his match up with the interior of the UF OL, which has struggled at times this year, will probably go a long way in determining who wins the game.
The other big time pass rushers are DE Barkevious Mingo and CB Tyrann Mathieu, who has been very effective with his blitzes this year. They both have 2.5 sacks, and will give UFs big tackles a challenge on the edge with their speed rush. Marcus Gilbert will probably be the best Tackle they've seen all year, and he's been solid in every single game, so in my mind, the only question is whoever plays RT, and so far, the Xavier Nixon experiement over there hasn't gone so well. He'll need to have his best game of the season to keep Brantley's jersey clean, which is even more important this week with the damaged ribs.
The LB corp for LSU is fast, and can be disruptive at times. Kelvin Sheppard and Ryan Baker have a combined 10 TFL, and you can believe they'll be shooting gaps, crashing the edge, and otherwise making life miserable for whatever half injured RB UF sends out on Saturday. That to me is a big thing no one is talking about. Demps and Gillislee, UF's 2 big play threats at RB are both injured. They both will probably play, but that is advantage LSU. I don't expect UFs ground game to get much going, especially if Moody is the only healthy back, and so it'll really come down to how well John Brantley can manage the short passing game.
He'll be going against one of the more athletic secondaries in the country. Tyrann Mathieu, Patrick Petersen, and Morrise Claiborne make up a strong group of CBs, and Brandon Taylor has been solid at Safety. Outside of the UNC debacle in the 2nd half (where LSU decided to play their backups for some reason), LSU is only giving up about 106 yards passing per game in the last 4 game. The good news though, is that although they get a lot of pass deflections (19), they don't get a lot of interceptions (6), and 5 of those came in one game against MSU.
So, with the UF running game potentially on the fritz on Saturday, Brantley will have to go to a solid group of possession guys on short and intermediate routes to keep the chains moving. Deonte Thompson, Carl Moore, and Ommarius Hines have actually proven to be quite effective on these types of routes in 2010, but Brantley will have to be extremely accurate, because if he misses, LSU will be there to eat it up. I think the key offensive player for the game is going to have to be Deonte Thompson. He is UFs leading receiver, and has been a consistent offensive player the last few weeks. If he can't get open, then UF will really struggle moving the ball unless someone else steps up.
I think this is a perfect game, especially with the injuries to UFs speed rushers, to get Debose on the field a lot more. UF is going to need SOMEONE that can break the game open on any touch, and Debose is really the only guy left that can do that who isn't injured. I also think that Burton should get more touches running the ball this week, because I don't see how UF is going to run the ball without him against LSU's defensive front. It'll be interesting to see what the coaches do with these two talented players situationally this week, and how they use them will go a long way in determining whether UF wins or loses.
LSU Offense:
Offensively, UF's mission is simple. Man up on the outside, and stop the run. If LSU can't run the ball, they won't score unless they get lucky and break a long play. Period. The offense just isn't that good. Jefferson and Ridley are a good combo running the ball, but not really that scary. Ridley is 230 pounds and is leading the SEC in rushing at 111.4 yards per game. UF needs to load the box and keep him from ever getting started, similar to how they contained Charles Scott in 2008 and 2009. They'll need to get penetration against LSU's front, because if they don't stop him before he gets rolling, he's hard to bring down. Other than that, they just need to be responsible in their assignments, and not overrun Jefferson, and LSU will be pretty simple to stop.
When Jarret lee comes in, the gameplan changes slightly because he's a better passer than a runner, but you'll still want to key on Ridley. The other thing that Florida will want to do is confuse both QBs, because they both have a tendency to make bad decisions, especially if Florida can manage to get some pressure on the two of them. LSU's offensive line is pretty good, they're getting LSU 4.96 yards per carry (UF is 4.17) and they have given up only 7 sacks in 5 games. So It'll be a challenege for Florida up front, and again, that battle in the trenches will determine how well LSU can move the ball. If the UF DL is getting a lot of pressure, and stopping the run, then LSU might not score. At all. But if the DL is losing the battle, you'll be surprised at how good the LSU offense has the potential to be.
LSU Special Teams:
Some of the best in the country. They have a really good kicker, decent punter, and their KR and PR games are some of the best in the country with PP returning kicks. UF will have to play perfectly in their coverage games, because one mistake, and this kid can score. He's already proven that this year, and after the big breakdown last week against ALabama, one wonders if UF will kick it to him at all. This is LSUs best offensive weapon right now, so it'll be interesting to see how the coaches handle it.
Chaz Henry will kick FGs again, and he looked good last week, and he might be the best punter in the country, but with Demps hurting, and Gillislee probably out, UFs return game will probably be a lot weaker this week. This is an area where LSU has a pretty big advantage IMO, which is rare under urban meyer.
Prediction:
I think LSU is going to come out flat against the night crowd, and I think Florida is going to build a pretty big early lead against LSU. I think Brantley will take UF down the field on the first two drives of the game, and get Florida ahead 10-0 before LSU knows what happened. LSU won't turn the ball over, but they will struggle to get first downs, and it'll look like a blow out as the Quarter ends.
End Qtr 1 - UF 10 - LSU 0
I think LSU bounces back in the 2nd quarter, a quarter where UF has REALLY struggled this year, and I think UF turns the ball over, maybe even a couple times. I do think the UF defense keeps LSU out of the end zone though, and after really just stinking the place up for a quarter, UF will go to halftime with a small lead.
Halftime - UF 10 - LSU 6
In the 3rd, I think UF comes out with a lot of energy, similar to every game this year, and drives down the field for a quick FG to start the half. I think LSU then takes a long drive (time wise) after a great KR and kicks another FG to keep pace. UF gets the ball and goes on another long drive, and they still have the ball when the quarter ends.
End Qtr 3 - UF 13 - LSU 9
The Gator offense hits pay dirt in the 4th when they score a TD, but LSU won't go away, and on one of those mad hatter type 4th down converting drives, LSU scores a TD to keep the game tight and makes the 2 pt conversion. I think Florida is unable to score against a fired up LSU defense, but then the Florida defense forces a turnover to get the ball back. Again, Florida can't end the game, but LSU turns the ball over again on their last possession and UF hangs on to win.
Final - UF 20 - LSU 17
I don't think either offense will get much over 300 yards of total offense, and I think both teams could have 2 or 3 turnovers. I think the key will be Brantley's ability to convert on 3rd and 6+, where he has been pretty good all year considering how often UF has been in that position. I think the UF offense will still be an area of a lot of fan scrutiny, and heading into the MSU game, UF will be beat up on both sides of the ball, but will be in sole possession of 1st in the east after SC loses to Alabama.
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